Thursday, September 5, 2013

TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Long-Term Chart Upper Trend Line

We have been watching the long-term trend line on the 10-year yield chart and the bond bears (lower bond prices and higher yields) have finally stopped the long expansion (megaphone) pattern 6-year downtrend. Yield is now above the 6-year upper trend line. Two inverted H&S patterns are playing out; yield already reaching one target but the other has 3.20% as a target. Now that yield broke out above the trend line, a back kiss is in order which would take yield lower to 2.80%-2.85%. The question, as always, is does the back kiss occur right away, or a month or two from now? With the negative divergence on the weekly and daily yield charts, the back test would be expected over the next couple weeks or so. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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