Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 9/11/13; 9-11 Twelve-Year Anniversary; Wholesale Trade; 10-Year Note Auction

The bulls enjoy a 3-day move from 1640 to 1684 filling the 1680-1685 gap. The 1685 and 1691 key resistance levels are the only barriers for the bulls remaining before 1700+ prints again. Therefore, the bears must place reinforcements at 1685 and 1691 drawing firm lines in the sand. Mortgage Applications are down continuing the sick 3-month housing malaise. Wholesale Trade numbers at 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Ditto Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM. Oil remains buoyant despite President Obama retreating from Syria military action. The 10-Year Auction is at 1 PM with the yield now at 2.94%. Trader's are of two minds now; yields will continue higher and stocks higher, or, yields higher and stocks lower. It is always the one that no one looks for such as yields lower, stocks lower. MW and VRA earnings will effect the retail sector.

Keystone took profits on the SPXL long trade yesterday exiting the position. Also added more SMN.

The bulls pushed the VIX under 14.58 yesterday which clearly paves the way for higher equities. However, VIX begins at 14.53, only a nickel on the bull side, so the pathway ahead is not yet decided. Volatility is the key market metric today. Very simply, equities move higher if VIX stays under 14.58. Equities will sell off if VIX moves above 14.58. For the bulls to push through the important SPX 1685 and 1691 R levels, utilities must cooperate. If UTIL moves above the 482-483 level, the market upside will be cast in stone and 1700+ is coming and likely a move to the 1720's. Bears must prevent UTIL from moving above 482-483, otherwise, they will feel pain.

Recent charts posted highlight the uber bullish complacency with the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratio's, the low TRIN numbers, and the falling VIX, all showing that bulls are tripping over themselves to buy stocks. The party is in full swing, there is no fear or worry. The juncture right now is reminiscent of July 2011 before the waterfall crash. Markets had sold off in June-July, but then recovered, and everyone was quickly convinced that the sky was the limit once again moving into August, when equities collapsed. At that time the debt ceiling talks were in play, like now. The low CPC and CPCE numbers signal that a significant market top is in place.

For the SPX starting at 1684, the strong 1685 R is key. If bulls push up through 1685, then a test of 1691 is a given. The 1691 is the last level that can prevent 1700+. The bulls will be pouring more drinks if 1691 is taken out since new market highs will be on tap. The bears must push under 1675 today to accelerate the downside. A move through 1676-1684 is sideways action. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. Bears need to print sub 1682 numbers to curl the 8 MA downwards for a potential negative 8/34 cross. Bears got nothing until the negative 8/34 cross occurs on the 30-minute. VIX 14.58 is the key metric that will dictate market direction today.


  1. the volume oscillator is at levels where you get a continuation of strength through to end of the matched time "T".$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p58979966944&a=312380641$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95879256102&a=286337063&listNum=4

    Breadth is also confirming that the pullback today should be mild (1675 should hold)$SUPHLP&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p64730196139&a=309249836&listNum=4$SUPADP&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p80318809161&listNum=4&a=305777905

    1. looking strong again, never bet against the house

  2. MCAP, you still playing NUGT these days?

  3. I have to laugh! We can all agree the market does not know where it's going. Yet people like Scott believe they can predict where the market is going with linear regressions based on the 2nd and 3rd derivative of price. No wonder they lose money hand over fist! A fool and his money should not have gotten together in the 1st place

    Dr. Sheldon Cooper

    1. Doctor of WHAT!? lol

      I keep posting a few very accurate charts.

      If you care to please read this book on any material by it author and lear about the Law of Matched Time.


      Who are you fantasy footballers anyway that come and post your nonsense.

      Doctor, heal thyself and leave others ALONE

      roflmao with all my money! lol

      Kindly keep your filthy lips off of me and focus on your own sick self.

    2. ps doc, I not only have more of what I had I have some of yours too!

      GROW UP and learn TA or go home and watch TV.

    3. oh - I just realized your name is a TV joke - a character from the BOOBTUBE! Makes perfect sense.

      anyone who didnt see this chart deserves to have the crap squeezed out of their shorts$RHNYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p47228841142&a=310949422&listNum=4

      even keybot knew not to fight it and switched! LOL

      have fun learning about life from your TV folks.

      it does have all the important and accurate info afterall!

      humanity is doomed for sure

    4. The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

      James B III

    5. the turd makes an appearance!

  4. KS, V or anyone here,

    FOMC is on 9/18, next Wed, and 9/19 is fullmoon?
    Connecting the two above, do you think we will likely get a nice rally to 1720+?


    1. You do not want to put as much faith in the full moon stuff, it works about 70% of the time so it is good to know, but you are correct that it would lean towards a bull ending after the Fed. It is OpEx week as well and markets are typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high. Perhaps the high may be when the Fed makes the announcement?

  5. V, GS guy, BB:
    What do you guys think of this market? Long or Short? Target?

    1. Your forgetting to as Scott his opinion! Like it really matters

    2. Don't care much about Scott's opinion. I only value certain people opinions. To name a few, KS, Paul Faulkner, V, BB, Weaver and there are couple more.

    3. I'm not certain but I believe anonymous was making an attempt at sarcasm when referring to Scott's value as a forcaster of market direction.

      Dr Sheldon Cooper

    4. what about Dr. Sheldon Cooper? lol

      testing one two three is your TV ON? wow

      all the complainers are the whinny little mouths who plead for guidance and FREE HELP!

      very sad

      dark holes for souls

  6. "... Bears got nothing ..."

    Indeed. Nada.

    Different people are trying to make sense of Mr. Market by different means but only one thing matters ... the almost year old Super Ben Bernanke QE snapline. The SP500 "could be" 1750 by mid to late September.

    This will break eventually and the Fed will lose control just like they have twice before in the last 20 years. Until that failure, why "fight the Fed"? Enjoy the ride.

    1. And if you enjoy scouting for fractals, you've only got to look as far back as last July to find a good match for this September.

      Super Ben may have deep pockets but he obviously has no imagination.

  7. It is a tricky market these days with the Syria drama ongoing as a back drop. Volatility collapsed, VIX was fighting at 14.58 but the bulls pushed it way low to create today's market lift. Note another low TRIN. Put/calls are moving up, this evening is similar to the May 22 top, the CPC and CPCE are starting to climb, VIX may recover tomorrow, this would usher in selling. But at the same time the SPX is on the verge of breaking out at 1691 which should pave the way to 1700+. The 2-hour chart should top out tomorrow. The 1-hour, 30-minute, etc.. are already rolling over now. Daily chart probably wants to see a bit more buoyancy, so perhaps price stumbles through 1670-1700 into next week's Fed. Bulls need higher utilities and it was interesting that the sector they needed the most, retreated today tumbling lower. Be very leery of the markets right now, today may have been the last chance to purge any longs that you are not willing to own for weeks and months forward.

  8. I will not post a single thing here.
    I will let the agressive master-troll Scott to share his mighty market-linear knowledge to the benefit of mankind.
    Expect the unexpected!

    GS guy


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