Thursday, September 5, 2013

Keystone's Evening Nightcap 9/5/13; Monthly Jobs Report On Tap

Copper was up overnight last night so the bulls were happy then one hour in front of this morning's opening bell for the equity session, copper collapsed. So the bears were happy. After the opening bell, the retail sector explodes higher making for happy bulls again. The SPX jumped to 1658 and then faded as traders decide to wait for the Monthly Jobs Report in the morning, that now takes on historic, although also circus-like, significance. ADP Jobs Report released this morning is 176K jobs thus, sprinkling in a few more to project tomorrow, since this is the trend, results in a target of 180K to 200K jobs for 8:30 AM EST. The consensus is 175K jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 7.4%. The whisper number is 180K-200K. Markets stumbled sideways today awaiting the thumbs up or thumbs down tomorrow morning. Fed's Evans, a dove, speaks at 8 AM, one-half hour before the Jobs Report, and Fed's George, she is a hawk, speaks at 1:30 PM. Tailgaters are already arriving for this historic Superbowl-style Jobs Report now less than 12 hours away.

The Treasury yields are the big story today. The 10-year touches 3%, Germany's 10-year is at 2%, the 5-year moved above 1.80%. The 2-year touched 0.50% so that places the 2-10 spread at 250, remaining only 5 bips under Keystone's critical 255 spread number that would signal happy bankers. AAPL is near a golden cross (50-day MA moving up through the 200-day MA) but not yet. The golden and death crosses are not tradeable actions, simply view them as a reference, or milestone type indicator. A golden cross simply verifies that in the long run, the stock will move higher, and a death cross simply verifies that a stock will move lower as time moves along.

Markets printed the highs today at 10 AM when the ISM Services number was better than expected. This bolsters the tapering case so yields move higher and stocks stumble sideways. The TRIN prints another uber low number today so this now begs for a snap-back in the opposite direction (higher TRIN lower equities). Reference the TRIN chart and analysis previously posted. CPC and CPCE put/calls remain low showing complacency and creating an interesting market juncture. The low put/calls signal a market top. The SPX could not move above the 20-day MA at 1658.90 today so this resistance held and is a large feather in the bear's cap. The Jobs Report is the big enchilada and markets may gap up, or gap down, violently, tomorrow. The 3% on the 10-year yield adds to the drama.

Copper and retail dictate market direction right now. Watch JJC 39.93, now only pennies away on the bear side at 39.87, and RTH 53.74, now at 53.73, one single penny on the bear side. Interesting how Keybot identifies these numbers ahead of time. If JJC moves above 39.93 and/or RTH above 53.74, the bulls will finally start the upside party. If both remain bearish, down is the direction for equities. Keybot the Quant will likely flip long if either RTH or JJC turn bullish.  For the SPX starting at 1655, bulls win above 1659, bears win below 1653. A move through 1654-1658 is sideways action but considering this tight range, and the Jobs Report hours away, price is going to make a decision one way or the other. Keystone added to the ongoing JO, DNDN and SCO long positions today, which are long coffee, long biotech and short oil, respectively. Also bot TLT opening a new long position. The market tone will be set at 8:30 AM.

45 comments:

  1. has Keystone stopped intraday updates and questions?

    is he baking pie full time now?

    perhaps the recent acrimony has put him off us?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, where is he? Especially on such a day when a crash is in the cards.

      Delete
  2. you mean a huge bull reversal dont you?

    lol! crash indeed

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL, we got both so far

      Delete
    2. I must have slept through the "crash" this morning...lol

      the waves so far indicate that nominal new highs are possible (not certain;POSSIBLE)before the big decline.

      the gap fill at 1685 is fairly certain now.

      Delete
  3. Has Keybot flipped long?

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    Replies
    1. soon - to be sure

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=19&id=p82642178045&a=303885030&listNum=4

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p72629958030&a=301653093&listNum=4

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL:$NATOT&p=D&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p84904409621&a=303358015&listNum=4

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SUPADP&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p80318809161&listNum=4&a=305777905

      this has been a secondary pullback in the resumption of an uptrend - now the up part of that statement is tenuous given the data points going into October but as I said over the last few days you have to be crazy to short here given charts like these:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p07526487452&a=312380641&listNum=4

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHGH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p81893422713&a=312536388&listNum=4

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    2. the resistance line in this chart will trigger the last TSI setting

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27761962855&listNum=4&a=306662948

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    3. I think I like elvis the bull better LOL.

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    4. I can call him - what was it you miss and I'd add it to the mix? lol

      Delete
  4. Scott if charts were worth a crap you would not be here posting all day long and begging Keystone to hold your hand.

    Your guesses are no better then 50-50 just like everyone else. To think otherwise is just plain crazy

    James B Statton III

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    Replies
    1. Sir, you just made my day.

      Delete
    2. when did I beg sir - I simply wondered if dung mouth iggits like you creating acrimony was the reason he is only posting while your invective sleeps with its teddy bear fears.

      you are not worth my spit and apparently your shorts must be squeezing your nuts so much your head is about to EXPLODE!

      I post as a service and as a means of reviewing my trades real time. I hope your nuts grow back so you can again experience random acts of kindness without completely losing your shit.

      roflmao!

      Delete
    3. ps - which one of my calls have be incorrect so far?

      I'll match my record to your nutlessness anytime!

      May I suggest WCCG as a therapeutic and cathartic outlet for you?

      http://www.cockeyed.com/inside/wcream/wcream4.jpg

      ps - ask yourself HOW I CAN AFFORD to post all day long if all I am doing is guessing??? LOL BIG TIME

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    4. Thank you for taking out the garbage James!!!!!

      Delete
    5. yes he did stop posting didnt he...and it smells much better around here since! lol

      Elvis Parsely the 4th!

      humans be so funny

      Delete
    6. Well said Scott..!
      You can always tell the dweebs who have gone all in on the wrong direction because they hate anyone who has a different opinion.! lol
      I find the stuff you post Scott as factual and it provides great additional information that compliments KS posts.
      Dont listen to these idiots!
      Jimmy

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    7. :)

      Elvis is smiling so much he may come out of his bunker and reveal himself!

      Delete
  5. KS-

    The TRIN continues printing uber bullish values after a spike this morning. Was this morning's spike considered the TRIN relief we talked about? This is the 4th consecutive day of uber bullish TRIN.

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
  6. Scott = Nostradamus to 4 anonymous posters on a dead web site

    or

    Scott = lives in his parents basement?

    Either way it's funny and pitiful at the same time.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. my dad says its time to clean my room and get off the computer! lol

      at least I'm not in a bunker with Elvis any more!

      Delete
    2. 4 anonymous posters and millions of angry bears with tight shorts!

      Delete
  7. Scott = Nostradamus to 4 anonymous posters on a dead website.

    LMFAO Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why do you come on it then you fool? If you don't this dead website then go find another one to troll on!
      You must have a really sad little life!
      Jimmy

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    2. james the III, is that you?

      ! is jimmy what mom calls you when dinner is ready?

      lol

      nothin but a bunch of scare little bullies.

      Delete
    3. you become illiterate when you get angry james the III! unintelligible at least!

      Delete
    4. No it wasn't him Scott. I was talking to James the turd it is just unfortunate that we share the same first name.
      I'm on your side mate i love your charts so please keep posting them!
      Jimmy

      Delete
    5. Sorry for the friendly fire! when I start swingin in a bar fight I get so excited! lol

      JAMES THE TURD! WOW - this is far from a dead blog.

      thanks

      Delete
    6. James the Third (James the Turd) it ryhmes and in the UK turd means SH*T!
      A bit of English humour but never mind..!
      Jimmy

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    7. brilliant!

      http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!5.0!!2!20]&pref=G

      Delete
  8. so I post and you anonymous folks reply and yet somehow I'M a LOSER and you are all winners???

    humans funny

    IN A MINUTE DAD! I'm talking to my friends! lol

    ReplyDelete
  9. one to anger and confuse poor James the 3rd! Doesnt his being "the III" and proud of it make him a knock off of the original and arent most duplicates faint imitations of the original?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN:SPY&p=D&yr=10&mn=7&dy=0&id=p71681089447&a=304515706&listNum=4

    what do you think this chart says mr. III'd?

    ReplyDelete
  10. even jimmy should see what this chart is saying...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p51262049966&a=307800791&listNum=6

    ReplyDelete
  11. Replies
    1. look at the left sidebar..

      and at this

      http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/richard-russell/market-s-main-trend-remains-bullish

      and then wait for the hate to spew towards poor ole Russell

      Delete
    2. Scott, most of your posts have no substance. Don't say a chart worth a thousand words. What is your target?

      Delete
    3. no wonder humanity cant stop hurting each other with you as it's representative

      without substance indeed

      dont tell me what I can say and why dont you simply read what I posted earlier

      Delete
  12. Scott, case closed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ok - it must be so since you say so - the following was posted earlier but I forget that bullies dont read

      anon, whats your target besides my back that is? lol what a bunch of little whinny children

      scottSeptember 6, 2013 at 12:26 PM
      I must have slept through the "crash" this morning...lol

      the waves so far indicate that nominal new highs are possible (not certain;POSSIBLE)before the big decline.

      the gap fill at 1685 is fairly certain now.

      Delete
      Reply

      Delete
  13. The NYSE summation index is putting in a bottom, implying the market goes "up" from here.

    The SP500 MACD has turned up with positive divergence.

    The market is respecting a trendline it's followed for almost a year, since "QE ta da moon" was toggled off.

    September is typically bullish, at least the first half.

    Scott's charts seem to be pointing "up".

    Congress returns next week. Hopefully, they vote down Mr. Obama's proposed Syrian War. I'm not sure if that would be bearish or bullish. Mr. Obama shapeshifting into a neocon and aligning himself with recycled Bush2 foreign policy ME initiatives has me confused. I "hope" Congress voting the operation down will light a fire under the market and give us a boost up to 1725 or higher. Current polls seem to indicate the House will vote against Obama.

    With a boost higher into middle or late September, that should free up October for the bearish flipside. Just in time for the latest round of debt ceiling concerns that have tripped the market before.

    ReplyDelete
  14. No reason to be excited either way. Equities are fighting to and fro but neither side wants to take control, hence a lot of sideways slop. The SPX moved over 66 handles yesterday, about 4% of its points, thru 1640-1665, a 25-handle range. Just think what things will be like when the VIX moves above 20. Note how intraday high touched 50-day exactly at 1665.51 and closed a hair under the 20-day MA at 1656.79, two days in a row closing just under the 20-day. Price is respecting the moving averages so they carry more clout moving forward. Remember, trading is all about time frames. You can be bullish short term and bearish intermediate term, or visa versa. The low TRIN's continue to need higher prints (market selling) to relieve the uber bullish pressure. CPCE at an uber low 0.50 which illustrates the uber bullish optimism since the Fed will always save the day. If short the markets and willing to be patient over the coming month or so, the CPCE at 0.50 allows you to sleep very easy each night since a selloff is on tap. In the VST markets can bounce violently higher first, as evidenced by Friday's action, and if the VIX climbs again, the erratic behavior will only increase.

    Keep the comments only geared to market calls and commentary.

    ReplyDelete
  15. KS-

    I stopped out of my shorts on Friday. I see the CPCE and TRIN numbers, but I suspect another upsurge to stop out the bears. If the market climbs another 30-40 handles, I would love to reload at that time, this sideways actions is a nightmare, it really tests your patience and nerves. Very difficult environment to trade in. I had to get out of the way. Are you really 88% short here or has that not yet been updated?

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, still short 88-90%. Remember, however, that can change in a heartbeat. Keybot will likely flip long if the SPX moves above 1657, only 2 points higher. The algo has been latching on and off at this number. Keybot the Quant is in charge of 65% of the total portfolio. So if Keybot flips long, the port will drop to about 23% short, and about 74% long, and about 3% cash (neutral). So for now, the overall picture remains in the bear camp but it can change quickly. The low CPCE should make bears sleep easy no matter what happens VST and it provides confidence in holding shorts.

      Delete
  16. Thanks KS. The insanely low CPCE prints made me feel confident, but I held some VIX derivatives, which fluctuate wildly, so I freaked out a little and puked on Friday. However, I agree the CPCE print should make shorts feel safe here. Really appreciate your input. Thanks!

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
  17. So even if the bot flips long, scaling in shorts should work out, despsite the short term climb higher, right?

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete

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