Monday, September 9, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 9/9/13

Copper is up in early trading so this will keep JJC elevated above 39.93 and send the markets higher. Keybot the Quant, Keystone's trading algo, remains short but has been wanting to go long since Wednesday. With copper up, and S&P futures +4, it appears that Keybot will likely flip long today. The SPX above 1657, a key pivot the last couple days, will likely give the bulls the nod. Watch RTH 53.74 since this will provide additional upside bull fuel. If RTH cannot move above 53.74, it hints that any up move in equities will weaken and roll back over to the downside. If RTH moves above 53.74, the recovery rally will be real and extended at least for a day or three. Retail earnings and Retail Sales on Friday are a major focus this week and will directly impact RTH. The higher oil price is sending gasoline at the pump higher which, in turn, will hurt retail sales moving forward. Utilities are important as well, both UTIL 482.16 and 483.35. If UTIL takes out these levels, the SPX will be headed to 1700+. If UTIL stays under these levels, the overall downside market malaise will continue.

The 10-year yield is 2.90%-2.91%. WTIC crude oil sits at 110. Syria drama continues with President Obama conducting interviews with media today and will meet with Congress members at various meetings today and tomorrow. All these theatrics reach a climax at 9 PM EST Tuesday night, 9/10/13, when the president speaks on television addressing the American people. The 9-11 Anniversary is here as well. The Fed's taper decision is 8 days away. HOV earnings are important for a gauge on housing. FLOW earnings indicate the strength of engineering projects ongoing. PVH provides insight into the retail sector.

The SPX 20-day MA is 1656.79 and is a key metric today to tell you which side wins. The 50-day MA is 1665.51. The TRIN Arms Index continues to print sub one numbers so a move to higher numbers is needed which would correspond to the broad indexes selling off. The CPCE put/call is at an obscene low of 0.50 indicating complete complacency and lack of fear across the board by traders, which occurs at market tops. This is interesting considering the Syria trouble, Fed tapering, the debt ceiling and government funding deadlines, the NSA, IRS and Benghazi Whitehouse scandals, weak jobs report, and on and on. Traders are addicted to the Fed's easy money crack cocaine and fully convinced the party will never end. Keystone's Eclipse Indicator targets 9/26/13, give or take a week or two, for a major market sell off. This creates a window from now through 10/11/13. Although esoteric, this indicator is surprisingly reliable as previous eclipse charts have shown (type 'eclipse' into the search box at right to bring up the chart that called the April top and also illustrates the past hits for this interesting indicator).

As the new week begins, looks like the bulls want to run. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. Watch JJC 39.93 (now creating bullishness) and RTH 53.74 (now creating bearishness) since these two parameters steer the market ship to begin the week.

25 comments:

  1. Keys I don't think you are going to have to worry about making money for playoff tickets this year.

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RHNYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52429534945&a=308352951&listNum=4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=19&id=p82642178045&a=303885030&listNum=4

      Delete
    2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p56310740876&a=313591232&listNum=4

      Delete
  3. Is Keybot still short?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yes. Still short. Look at the upper left hand corner of this page for Keybot market direction. Utilities and RTH remain weak.

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG:SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59867955927&a=313352086&listNum=6

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43819130845&a=295774439&listNum=4

    ReplyDelete
  6. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p44686597903&a=305384923

    need to convincingly move above Aug 26th high of 1669.51
    or rally may falter.

    many more bullish signs here still until the 23rd.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Every ship on the bottom of the ocean has closets full of rotting charts. Need I say more!!!!!

    James B Statton III

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and in your closet? dresses? lol

      if you dont like charts dont use em -

      post your method if you have one.

      it is clear you have an emotion suffering that must spill over in anger and belittlement - it must be painful in there James.

      peace

      Delete
    2. PS james - my boat floats rather nicely and there
      are no obstructions in the water...
      solid haul and full power you know! lol

      Delete
  8. james, if you pull your head out of it suffering s_ _t hole for a moment you might notice that KS deleted Friday's update and commentaries. Keep at it and he'll delete this one too. LOL

    Does your divisiveness and ridicule make you feel manly?

    Post your method man or dont - either way, kindly be kind!

    ReplyDelete
  9. KS - SPX is currently over 1670.. why keybot is not flipped to long yet? Thx.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Yeah do you give a signal in real time or is it delayed for some reason?

    ReplyDelete
  11. The "smart money" commercial hedgers haven't been this relatively bullish as a percentage of total open interest since June 2012.

    http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  12. http://www.businessinsider.com/street-forecaster-joe-granville-dies-2013-9

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.granvilleletter.com/Joe/

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_granville

      Ol' Joe was the "Jim Cramer" of his day.

      "... His investment seminars were bizarre extravaganzas, sometimes featuring a trained chimpanzee would could play Granville's theme song "The Bagholder's Blues," on piano. He once showed up at an investment seminar dressed as Moses, wearing a crown and carrying tablets. Granville made extravagant claims about his forecasting ability. He said he could predict earthquakes and once claimed to have predicted six of the past seven major world quakes. He was quoted by TIME Magazine as saying "I don't think that I will ever make a serious mistake in the stock market for the rest of my life," and he predicted that he would win the Nobel Prize in economics. ..."

      He was 90 years old.

      Delete
    2. Hadn't heard that, Scotty. RIP Joe.

      Sean

      Delete
  13. We finally got a bullish cross on the NYSE summation index.

    It's up, up and away. LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  14. $CPC 0.65. $CPCE 0.45. $NYMO 45.47. Bulls are just asking for it. KS, do the Monday night prints give any hints of the depth of a coming correction?

    ReplyDelete
  15. So keybot flipped long at 1661 why was it not posted?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everyone was either sleeping in hammocks or eating pie.

      Delete

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