Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up and Midday Market Action 9/4/13; Beige Book

Trade numbers send the S&P futures lower a touch now at -2.5. Dow -32. Nasdaq is positive. Semiconductors may play a key role today if tech is showing signs of life. Copper continues to hold the key to market direction. Strength in copper sent markets higher yesterday, today, weakness sends markets lower. Watch JJC 40.00 as the bull-bear line in the sand. JJC begins at 40.68 and the copper weakness this morning will send JJC down towards a test of 40 at the opening bell. Equities will take another leg lower if JJC drops under 40 and stays under. Bulls will keep hopes for a recovery rally alive and well if they keep JJC above 40.  For the semi's, keep an eye on the SOX 467.60 bull-bear line in the sand.

For the SPX starting at 1640, the bulls need to move above 1651 to create an upside acceleration. The bears need to push under 1634 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1635-1650 is sideways action. The 8 MA is below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead but as highlighted on the 30-minute chart this morning, anything can happen. Important SPX support below is 1639, 1632.97 (September's starting number) and 1627. Resistance above is 1639.88 (100-day MA), 1647, 1647.05 (20-week MA),  1649, 1651.35 (Tuesday HOD), 1652, 1657, 1659, 1661.53 (50-day MA) and 1661. Watch JJC 40.00 since it steers the market ship today. The Beige Book at 2 PM EST will create a market pivot point and perhaps a wild couple hours of trading to end the day.

Note Added 9:50 AM:  JJC collapses to 39.68 at the bell providing bear fuel, however, the bulls pull a sneak attack with semiconductors, sending the SOX to 467.00. The recovery rally is firmly back on the table if the bulls can push SOX up through 467.60. The VIX and markets were both higher so one of them was wrong, and volatility has now gone negative. The SPX is testing the 1642-1644 level which is the upper trend line break out on the 30-minute chart highlighted this morning. TRIN 0.69 provides bull juice. The 8 MA pierces up through the 34 MA after the opening bell signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead.

Note Added 10:01 AM:  The 20-week MA is 1647.05, a key moving average that price respects. SOX 468.62 so semiconductors are firmly creating the market bullishness today.

Note Added 10:27 AM:  SPX 1648.16.  HOD 1648.43. The 20-week MA is 1647.22. The bulls punched up through, see if they can hold it for ten minutes, or not. SOX 469.14. Semi's are goosed up over +1.6% today. JJC now recovering to 39.83. Bulls only need 39.93 for more upside fuel and SPX is close to the 1651+ breakout level for today.  Bulls are making a very serious run right now. Watch JJC 39.93.

Note Added 11:00 AM:  SOX 471.15. JJC 39.77. SPX 1648.97. HOD 1649.10. VIX 16.07. TRIN 0.83. All the bulls need is another fifteen cents in JJC and SPX over 1651 and Keybot would likely flip to the long side. Utes are collapsing, now with a 468 handle. Markets may dance sideways until the Beige Book pivot at 2 PM.

Note Added 12:05 PM:  SOX 471.58.  JJC 39.79. SPX 1654.02. HOD 1654.56 so the upside accelerated four handles after 1651 was taken out. The retail sector is now determining the up or down fate for Keybot. Watch RTH 53.75 exactly where price now sits. If either JJC moves above 39.93, and/or RTH moves above 53.75, and stays above, and the SPX moves above 1655 and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. The bulls mean business today. So this is important action right now and the Beige Book pivot is less than two hours away. Keystone took profits on ICN and SPXL exiting both positions. Will look to reenter ICN. SPXL would be attractive if Keybot flips long.

Note Added 12:51 PM:  Quite a soap opera today. The strength in retail and semiconductors is overpowering the weakness in copper sending equities higher. Watch RTH 53.74, now at 53.73 one single hair on the bear side. The to and fro dance continues. Keybot the Quant wants to go long right now, the algo number is above the signal line, but the algo needs to see the SPX price above 1655, and hold above, to flip long. SPX is 1653.81. TRIN 0.76. The last two days of uber low TRIN's will probably lead to a recoil move in the day or so ahead to relieve the uber bullish market pressure. The Beige Book market pivot is only one hour away so markets may drift along and then make a very important direction decision at 2 PM.

Note Added 1:51 PM:  RTH 53.69 (retail) is not cooperating with the bulls. Beige Book imminent. SPX 1653.82.

49 comments:

  1. bull trap being setup until the end of the week.
    1500's levels are waiting.

    GS guy
    Happy Rosh Hashanah!
    Buy Rosh Hashanah, sell Yom Kippur, ....you retailers! :))))!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KS,


      Check VIX on daily charts with 100 ma and 200 ma.
      :)
      The action is alike late July 2011.
      I didn't observed that, but another blogger on another site observed it.
      Something big is preparing! (not bullish for stocks :D)

      V.

      Delete
    2. Interesting, when the 100-day MA crossed up through the 200-day MA that signaled the VIX in the midst of the huge spike higher, which coincided with the August 2011 crash.

      Delete
    3. I remember this crash, Goldman Aach was trading at $100 at the time.

      FeS2

      Delete
    4. http://www.businessinsider.com/sell-on-rosh-hashanah-buy-on-yom-kippur-2013-9

      ROFLOL and inhaling whip cream can gas all the way!

      Delete
  2. Hi KS, do you have any comments on yen pairs? seems that all of them are flying..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Weaker yen, looking at the $XJY basket, sends dollar/yen higher, XJY falling from 104 to 100 over last month. This creates the up in dollar/yen along with the stronger $USD dollar basket sendign it higher as well. Weaker yen is the BOJ easing which helps Nikkei to stabilize and start to recover over last month, same as U.S. equities. XJY did fall out of sideways triangle on daily chart, below lower trend line, so more yen weakness would help equities recover higher.

      Delete
  3. Is anyone else besides me short here? The algo is about to flip long, but short seems to be the best position here, based on market topping behavior. I am really surprised to see the melt up today.

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Quick Small Short from 1654 target 1635 tomorrow with a tight stop - I closed a small long from 1634 yesterday at 1654 moments ago

      Broader short target 1584

      BB

      Delete
    2. suicide...Short after Sept 26th...

      Delete
  4. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL:$NATOT&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p08229284826&a=303358015

    shorts are likely to be murdered through mid to late sept - watch the 2hr sds chart today for a confirmation
    AND WATCH the Volume Osc here as IT IS CONFIRMING new time symmetry until Sept 26th! Shorting within this CONFIRMED time frame is suicide - period!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p80791015736&a=312380641&listNum=4

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=120&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p89888527581&a=310132103&listNum=4

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA200R&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72317753592&a=310049627&listNum=6

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MID&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p31188052320&a=279010633


    ReplyDelete
  5. VIX is barely down on such a huge rally today...somethign to look out for

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX may or may not reach 1700 or make nominal new highs BUT IT WILL NOT TANK until after the 26th...

      Delete
    2. SPX may target the 1680-1685 gap fill to button up the top side.

      Delete
  6. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=19&id=p58491565788&a=303885030

    shorting this chart is just crazy

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG:SPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84226064574&a=310229677

    no sell signals to be found

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scott, your charts always look awesome, I just wish I knew how to read em right. thanks for the posts.

      Delete
    2. falling agg/spy ratio is bullish for stocks -
      spend some time with the charts and let your intuition teach you

      dont think that following others is learning...

      Delete
    3. Ciovacco's version is more straightforward than mine...

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:AGG&p=W&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p60778707002&a=262097971

      Delete
    4. research the "law of matched time" and volume oscillators in relation to AD lines...
      http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Stock_Market_s_Law_of_Matched_Trend.html?id=1aj4ZwEACAAJ

      Delete
  8. I've been reading a fair amount of anecdotal fear on this blog recently, which seems counter-intuitive to the nature of technical trading. The whole point of trading technically is relying upon something a bit more objective than having a neighbor, who has a cousin, who has a friend, who's son works for the defense department and he said we're going to war in three days. I've also been reading a bit of gambler's mentality, this notion that I have to be 100% long or 100% short. No one can predict the market with perfect clarity, so it's best to make hedged bets. My confidence got the better a few years back when I went 100% into a sure-thing and lost 50% of my net worth. I don't complain. I deserved to lose 50% of my net worth because it was an idiotic thing to do. I trade much differently now.
    Mark

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great insights although anecdotes about economics have zero to do with TA, that would fall under the fundamentals category. You will have to follow the site more; the Positions and Picks page explains how you do not want to be all or nothing in the markets as you say, so that is great advice. Always be diversified with fingers in a lot of different pies.

      Delete
  9. Looks like markets are idling until the Beige Book. Bulls need RTH above 53.74 and SPX above 1655 and the confetti will be thrown and the wine will flow like water. Bears need to push RTH lower under 53.74 and far lower, and prevent SPX 1655 with all their might. RTH is at 53.71 and SPX is 1653.86. The tension mounts. 48 minutes away.....

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  10. My neighbor is a very high level operative in the military. He has been seen buying 100's of boxes of duck tape. Losing 50% of your net worth is the least of your problems idiot!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. man for a guy who claims others are PERSONAL your approach is very questionable! lol

      idiot!?!? get a clue please

      Delete
    2. "duck" tape? idiot indeed...

      ROFLMAO!

      duck tape is defined as a restraining device for violent ducks...like DAFFY! AHHHEEEEEEEE!

      Delete
    3. at 447$ a case I would of lost 100% of my net worth well before I bought 100's of boxes.

      http://www.staples.com/3M-3939-Silver-Duct-Tape-2-inch-x-60-yds-24-Rolls/product_909498

      Delete
    4. we all remember this gem of public disinformation! lol
      http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/03/02/28_ducttape.html

      Delete
    5. Shawn - remember that duck tape is cheaper than duct tape and has a high resale value as it is in short supply! LOL!!! VERY SHORT SUPPLY!

      Delete
  11. Everyone needs to avoid the name-calling, there is no place for that, that kind of stuff simply drags all people to a lower level. Everyone's opinion is valuable. You know, with a wire hangar, duct tape, pliers and a hammer, you would be surprised at all the things you can fix. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  12. I've got $2,897,000 million in this Keystone short trade. I started with $211.96 dollars a few years ago when I started taking Keystone trades. That is all of my net worth and that of my widowed mother and her sister. We will need to lose almost 100% to get back to $211.Keystone never loses so I have nothing to worry about. I'm going to get my church and my local hospice house to start taking Keystones trades. He has a no lose system I fully expect my net worth to double every year following Keystones recs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You must be the King's son from Zimbabwe.

      FeS2

      Delete
  13. 1800 by the end of September!
    I'm all in long, fully leveraged! GO BULLS!

    Mary

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's right Mary!

      I don't understand what cpc, vix, ma and other thing mean! All I know is that FED will ALWAYS, ALWAYS sustain the markets!

      always!

      this market CAN'T FALL ! NEVER!
      I also have my 401k in stocks and it's just dreamland ! Made a lot of money!
      Also all my money are in ETF's (I strongly recommend that to you Mary) on long side 3x leveraged!

      All this bearish thing is nonsense ! This market with all it's pullbacks has only ONE WAY TO GO! UP!

      S&P 500 = 2000 - 2500 until the end of this year!
      and 5000 until the end of next year!

      Jonathan

      Delete
    2. yikes - you may be the real life version of Wile E. Coyote...

      I', bullish right here right now too BUT I do not extend that out beyond the cycles or the time frames indicated by the techincals!

      be careful - please review this chart!
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p80791015736&a=312380641&listNum=4

      there is a lot of data supporting bottoms in October and the end of the year...

      there is also a long term meridian that markets have broken above and that is BUBBLE BULLISH and ultimate NOT HEALTHY so you may see your gains ripped away at some point -

      TAKE PROFITS AND BOOK THEM IN A SAFE PLACE AND THEN SPECULATE WITH THE REMAINDER!

      Delete
  14. Mary are you crazy? Keystone says the market is going lower don't you know he is short right now!!!! You better come to your senses and get on the Keystone train before you lose everything and have to start eating cat food.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're completely wrong!
      Can't compare to the might of FED!
      They are our soldiers!
      They pump the markets and make us all RICH!

      Mary (or : Happy Mary)

      Delete
  15. Mary and Jonathan,

    Better watch out your money!
    the market is overriding a topping signal ($cpc) in a corrective wave ... it's like we're having bulls on energizer drinks ... but you know what comes after energizer drinks... it's fatigue and exhaustion that comes!

    This market is still in a downtrend.
    Hope you all will be ok the next few days, not weeks!
    Oh, something to remember: from 1626.60 lowest point reached the market just executed the last days a corrective wave in an expanded triangle (a-b-c-d-e).... "e" just finished at 1655.72 .. to put a negative divergence it will execute a pullback to 1645 and then a few points higher than 1655.72 (may be less than a point higher) .... and after that my dear ones .... it's the low 1500's that's next!

    Good luck with your Ben "The mighty" bias.... watch out so you won't get burned!

    V.

    ReplyDelete
  16. V,

    This is person is trolling. No one in their right mind would leverage 100% long here. Either your just very naive or a gambling addict. 100% long, on margin?!!!! Wtf? No way, no one would be that risk tolerant.

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. my portfolios are 50% 2x spx and dow right now...

      other 50% is a mix of usd, cash, bonds and a couple of placed shorts.

      if you know the probable matched time cycles then leverage is good

      Delete
    2. FeS2,

      If they would troll here it would not be such a problem.
      But it would be a big problem if what they are saying is real, if their money is where their mouth is.
      This would be dangerous.
      And my guess is that just might be the case. Some people lose money, it's simple.

      V.

      Delete
    3. when the equity cycle is done it may be time to go for the miners sometime in October...

      Delete
    4. I'll go for the miners, I've been looking for an entry there. I may look for leveraged opportunities there, Haha. I like leverage, but its a little too rich for my blood at this juncture.

      FeS2

      Delete
    5. 3 helpful GDX charts

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p93267463372&a=303389662&listNum=4

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=4&mn=10&dy=0&id=p18655510339&a=304336341&listNum=4

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00861015634&a=314646244&listNum=4

      Delete
  17. this will confirm when updated today
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p06897924890&a=303620750&listNum=4

    although somebody dumped 2.5mil of spy at 3:25est! lol

    nerves coming in

    HFTAlert
    Sep. 4 at 7:51 AM

    we saw the Dark Pools buying $SPY yesterday into the lows..they're selling them today into the highs http://stks.co/ahMU



    ReplyDelete
  18. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p37941865607&a=309132841&listNum=4

    sox not listening to the other indexes here - lead or follow???

    ReplyDelete
  19. There's no end to the things I learn through Keystone and the people who visit here ...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duct_tape

    "... This tape, colored in army-standard matte olive drab, was nicknamed "duck tape" by the soldiers. Various theories have been put forward for the nickname, including the descendant relation to cotton duck fabric, the waterproof characteristics of a duck bird, and even the 1942 amphibious military vehicle DUKW ..."

    Either "duck" or "duct" tape is correct. LOL.

    Markets fall on rumors of war, but rally when the first missiles are toggled off.

    Mr. O surprised me. I was sure he'd toggle off a couple hundred Tomahawks over the weekend and we'd get a nice market rally on the heels of that. Instead, more waiting.

    September has a bullish bias, expecially the first half. The magic "QE to da moon" Ben Bernanke SP500 snapline is up around 1725 and could be as high as 1750 by the end of September. Calls for 1500 are probably premature, IMHO. There's time for that come this October.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Big day on tap for Thursday since copper, retail and financials are ready to pounce into action and lead the bulls to victory, with Keybot flipping long, or, these three key sectors fold like a cheap suit and markets begin a new leg lower with Keybot staying short. This appears to be an inflection point since the levels of interest are right where price is, the markets must make a firm decision on Thursday, bounce, or die. The key metric is copper and JJC is at its inflection point where up means the broad indexes move up and down means down. So a lot is riding on copper and this can be followed overnight. Bulls will likely win tomorrow if copper is up, and bears will win if copper is down.

    ReplyDelete

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