Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Keystone's Evening Nightcap 9/4/13; ECB Rate Decision On Tap

Today was a wild day under the Big Top. When copper failed at the opening bell (JJC under 39.93), the bears appeared in full control and ready to drive equities lower. The bulls had a different result in mind with the low TRIN, volatility dropping like a stone, VIX under 16, and semiconductors in a wild orgy higher today, up a huge +2.6%. Retail and financials joined in for the thin-volume bull move. Keybot was on the verge of flipping long, and still is, for most of the day. The SPX needed to produce certain price levels to but when it did, the retail sector failed. Watch JJC 39.93, RTH 53.74, XLF 19.98 and SOX 467.60. Copper, retail and financials are creating market negativity while semiconductors are creating bullishness.  Any change to these parameters will cause equities to move in that same direction. JJC 39.93 is the key. Watch copper trading overnight since up copper means equities will likely be up tomorrow while down copper means the markets will likely move lower tomorrow.

For the SPX at 1653, the bulls only need 2 or 3 upside points, to touch the 1656 handle, and an upside acceleration will occur to test 1661. If JJC, RTH or XLF turn bullish, and the SPX stays above 1656, Keybot will likely flip long.  The bears need to push under 1638 to create a downside acceleration to 1627. A move through 1639-1655 is sideways action. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets ahead

Rosh Hashanah arrives this evening. The new moon hits at 7:37 AM EST minutes before the ECB announcement at 7:45 AM.  The Draghi press conference is 8:30 AM. Markets are typically weak moving through the new moon. However, the broad indexes are typically buoyant from the last day of the month through the first few days of the new month. The TRIN is looking for some market selling so it can recover from the low numbers and print above 1.00. BPSPX is 75 working lower. The bears need the BPSPX to fall under 70 to create more downside fuel. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue to show complacency and volatility joins that camp with the drop in the VIX today. The put/calls continue to indicate markets are at or near a top.

Markets are at an interesting juncture right now. The last five days are a knock-down, drag-out fight, bull versus bear, for market control, and it remains unclear who will win. Tomorrow will likely tell the story since the JJC, RTH and XLF listed above are at their inflection points, so markets should either bounce, or die, tomorrow, and to commit to the chosen direction. The ECB will move the futures pre-market. JJC 39.93 and SPX 1656 are important. ADP Jobs Report provides a heads-up for Friday's Monthly Jobs Report. Keystone bot more JO in the afternoon adding to this ongoing long coffee position.

37 comments:

  1. KS-

    Even if keybot flips long, I would expect a whipsaw back to the short side to relieve the bullish TRIN; I plan on holding shorts even if he flips long. Is that the right strategy? Would you continue holding shorts if the bot flips long?

    FeS2

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    1. i was considering the same. but after what scott said yesterday about sept 26th im reconsidering

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    2. I think Scott made good points, but CPC already indicates a market top or a near term top forming, if SPX pushes higher and higher, all it means is that the bears will get the market top on a silver platter as all the indicators begin approaching topping levels. Hard to say what the right call is here. This path of maximum frustration is getting old. Lol.

      FeS2

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    3. Scott is a retard. He does not even know what duck tape is. Do yourself a favor and ignore the guy and follow keystone

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    4. retard, idiot, invective and slur!

      wow! you must work for the national authority -

      I know, you are a TSA airport employee! lol

      enjoy your anonymous internet tongue fun as it is probably your only source of satisfaction

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    5. CPC is an INDICATOR NOT A TRIGGER!

      look at april 8th to see that a low CPC does not mean a top is in...

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47003153696&a=298979723&listNum=4

      I use this ratio as a trade indicator - much more reliable than cpc but doesnt update until after the close

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP:$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95879256102&listNum=4&a=286337063

      Delete
  2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p83208170029&a=312380641

    this chart is one of the ones to save you - shorting here is nuts

    if the Volume Osc dips below zero then you may get another pullback - until then it is rally or melt up to at least 1690...

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    1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=120&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p08764956525&a=310132103

      I keep posting these - all you have to do is spend some time with them to see...

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    2. I get the feeling that the market is just begging for a correction so the real market can take over again. all of the money that has been artificially pumped into the world markets has created another house of cards. one of these days reality will set in and you will hear all the uber bulls screaming turn those machines back on LOL

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    3. trading generalizations will get you killed.

      trade the charts or just trade keybot signals but if you do trade keybot then you need to trade every signal and not second guess it - treat it like the mechanical system it is.

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    4. I am a technical trader, im just saying that QE has distorted the markets and I would love to see it end and the real market step forward.

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    5. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59430683150&a=289471133&listNum=2

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    6. "real markets" havent existed since Goldman Sachs was created to defend the Federal Reserve banking system...

      as long as money is debt there is always distortion and criminal speculation

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    7. don't do stockcharts, and I am not arguing your point, I am just saying that the fundamentals behind the technicals are flawed therefore making the technicals somewhat flawed. I just want to take my small piece of the pie out everyday. so, as long as I can do that I am fine, the longer term is not that big of a deal to me.

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  3. i dont always agree with Scott, but he is certainly no idiot.

    Name calling is the sign of a small mind.

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    1. I'm only his target because I defended Shawn yesterday with some humor yesterday.

      It's all a mirror into ourselves and never a light shone upon others...lol

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    2. Elvis is that you LOL.

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    3. He's still in the undisclosed bunker but he did give me some WCCG to share with all of you! LOL!

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  4. Scott is a douche!

    Jennifer

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    1. you must hate what you see in the mirror Jen...

      I'm not your problem.

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    2. looks like the boring market is bringing out the best in all of us LOL

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  5. Geez

    what is it with the dwicks posting over the last couple of days. Fook off to the Yahoo Boards, Mother F-ers!



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  6. my two cents - High of the day has yet to come

    The Rally will put in a higher high tomorrow - after a retest of 1654 ish but that will be it - at this stage i still don't think the Gap will be closed at 1680

    seems that we can close just lower 1664

    Time to re-short with tight stop is tomorrow's higher high.

    BB - Yea the negs on this board Pwis off - Leave Scott alone MotherHumpers. He's an alright Permabull!

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    Replies
    1. thanks for the love!

      I be a lighting rod for some reason - static cling maybe! lol

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    2. the only thing permanent about me seems to be my ability to infuriate demons! roflol

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    3. Nasty after the bathroom - static cling

      BB

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  7. clearly if we bounce to and fall below 1665-1670's we can test 1637 ish for an IHS - which means I would scrap 1580 in the immediate timeframe

    BB

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  8. 13:10pm low of 1653.25 needs to be the low of the day for my theory to be accurate

    BB - if you are long a day trade that would be my stop

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  9. Someone just started propping up the market on ES huge support - biggest in weeks

    BB

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  10. BB,

    You dont think we will reach the gap fill 1680 tomorrow Friday?

    What's your opinion scaling in shorts at spx 1659 (hod) today?

    Looks like sideways to sideways up...

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I do not think we can reach 1680 by close fri.

      I think there looks to be a tasty IHS with the right neckline at 1670-1663 and a pretty easy 20 point short to somewhere in the high 1630's which would then target 1680's but after that who can say my personal bias is down to at least 1625-1620 where there is rising and falling support from two different trend lines

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  11. Huge explosions heard in Syria THE BOMBING HAS BEGUN. Assad rumored to be the target...... they think they got him. Lets hope so!!!!

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  12. Check out the NYSE summation index.

    If that's not "a bottom", it's pretty close to one.

    I know that's crazy, but it is what it is. Everyone wants to be a bear. LOL.

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  13. the breakdown in the SOX that everyone expected a week or so ago never happened and the failed (bullish) broad top seems in play

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p37941865607&a=309132841&listNum=4

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  14. GS and V are very quiet today...!

    Love your work KS, Scott and other positive contributors...!

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  15. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RHNYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p47228841142&a=310949422

    watch this close over the next few trading days...

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