Monday, July 22, 2013

SPXA150R Percent of S&P Stocks Above 150-Day MA Daily Chart Signals Significant Market Top Very Near

The SPXA150R is used as a Short-Term Market Signal (reference this page for additional information). When price moves above 80, the market rally is becoming extended. At 85+ the bulls are definitely in rally mode but the markets are beginning to top out. At 90+, the markets are at a peak and a pull back is expected. At 89.20, this is close enough for government work, and a peak in the broad indexes is expected any day forward, say within a couple weeks time. For the May top, the SPXA150R continued above 90+ for about two weeks after the 90 level was breached, and this created another 50 handles in the SPX as that euphoric rally played out. Since a 20 or 30 or more point move may occur intraday for the SPX in these volatile markets, and the 1680 level was taken out, a move to 1720's cannot be ruled out before the peak occurs and the downside begins.

 The low CPC and CPCE put/calls are also indicating complacency and complete lack of fear in the markets due to the Fed supplying crack cocaine easy money every day. Traders are not worried at all about any downside occurring and that is typically when it occurs. The SPX may run above 1700 in the coming days but the SPXA150R says it is prudent to have shorts on currently. As a scale-in approach for the most bullish traders, think about scaling back longs and bringing on shorts each day forward. This will provide some leeway if the SPXA150R decides to run a few points above 90 which would correspond to SPX 1700-1730. In a broader context, note that the SPXA150R is not at the May levels but the SPX has created new all-time highs printing above the May numbers. This divergence is viewed negatively since as the broad equity markets make new highs, less and less stocks are above their 150-day MA's. In a robust market you would expect more like the spring time.

 Projection is for the broad indexes to top now and roll over at any day forward, say, within a couple weeks time overall. The SPXA150R peaked on 5/20/13 and 5/21/13 at 94.40. The next day, 5/22/13, was the top in the SPX at 1687 and this was over a 30-handle intraday downside move.  Watch your wallet moving forward. A move above 90+, here and higher, is a very comfortable place to short the market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 22, 2013 at 7:29 AM

    The MacClellan oscellator made a lower high indicating the top is very near

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    1. Keystone SpeculatorJuly 22, 2013 at 7:40 AM

      Interesting, yep, as the SPX and broad indexes print new all-time highs, NYMO is diverging lower, just like SPXA150R. In a robust market, the NYMO should be continuing higher with equities.

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  2. AnonymousJuly 22, 2013 at 8:24 AM

    I count myself indeed very fortunate during the past week to have uncovered this blog, against a backdrop to your compelling analysis covering the SPX500. My, it is amazing that this analysis is freely available to the general investing public! It is my intention to make a donation on 1 August 2013. I am suggesting therefore, that this trading forum become a subscription based website, to protect the integrity of its highly valued indicators and proprietry analysis!

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    1. AnonymousJuly 22, 2013 at 9:02 AM

      :)
      donate to the ones that are poor and full of problems, sick and humble, with their eyes in the ground. And do it as a gift not as a payment, as a gift, not as a method of indebtedness.

      I hope that this site will NOT become a subscription based site. But KS is the only one to decide that!

      In case of the top tier information given by me here from time to time at tops and bottoms areas, it is an exercise for me, some kind of experiment.
      I kindly requested you if you benefit from my advice (given here from time to time) to donate 10% to a beggar or to a poor family - when you receive a gift be prepared to give the gift to others that really need it!
      Call it some kind of spiritual evolution this decision of mine. Call it a dumb idea, call it as you want!
      I don't have any instrument of control if you donate or not the 10% to a poor guy, poor familiy or some other person with a troubled situation, it's up to your decision and character and self-consciousness.

      I'll be here to mark together with you the top of this Major 3!
      For the moment the area 1705-1710 is an area that might mark the top of wave 3 of int v of major 3. Some 25-30 points correction after that, after a little bit higher after that.

      Major 3 will be totally finished until August 7 to 12 period and a pesky (or not? :D?) major 4 correction of about 10% will appear.

      Quote:''It is my intention to make a donation on 1 August 2013."
      If this phrase reffers to yur relation with KS I'm sorry for posting this comment, it's not applicable to your statement.


      GS guy

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    2. Keystone SpeculatorJuly 22, 2013 at 9:48 AM

      Keystone says danke for the kind words Anon. But a subscription service sounds like work, that's not fun for Keystone, it is much better to maintain a flexible schedule posting as time or health permits, but who knows, there are offers coming in all the time. Since things are free, remember, you get what you pay for. LOL

      The intent of the site is educate and entertain so simply study the tools highlighted here each day and incorporate them into your trading platform. Instead of eating one fish dinner, it is better to learn how to fish that way you can have a fish dinner anytime you want. Besides, Keystone may decide to simply spend the days forward napping in the hammock under the oak trees at any given time.

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