Markets stumble along today through the 1679-1684 sideways range. Price is now teasing at the lower end again. Bulls win above 1684. Bears win below 1679. The VIX falling wedge in the 5-minute time frame is highlighted in the previous post so that may send volatility higher, and markets lower, into the closing bell. VIX 14.19 is the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls win below VIX 14.19. Bears win above 14.19. VIX is 13.87. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, the 8 MA is curling downwards again and the 8 and 34 MA's are on top of each other so a negative 8/34 cross may be on tap again. Place the popcorn in the microwave since the finish today may be better than a movie. TRIN is 0.84 giving the nod to the bulls. The earnings for three tech big boys, EBAY, INTC and IBM, hit after the bell, and will surely set the tone for markets tomorrow especially the tech sector.
Note Added 3:38 PM: SPX is 1679.05 tapping on the 1679 support continuing to maintain the sideways 1679-1684 range. VIX 13.92 moving up. Can it move above 14.19 by the close? TRIN 0.86 so the bulls can likely maintain market buoyancy. Bears need to push the TRIN higher.
Note Added 3:47 PM: SPX 1680.17. Remember the descending triangle from this morning's 5-minute SPX chart between the opening bell and noon time that was nullified? As often happens, a new stretched-out descending triangle may form so if you look at the 10-minute chart you can see a descending triangle with top at 1684-1685 and base line at the 1679 support so the target below is 1672 support if the 1679 fails, and the pattern would point to a failure early tomorrow since the bears are running out of time today.
Note Added 4:01 PM: Volume is below average today. Traders are waiting for Round 2 of Bernanke tomorrow in front of the Senate when, perhaps, some tough questions may be asked. SPX goes out at 1680.87. VIX jammed lower at the close to 14.81. Numbers are settling out. Note how coals hung in there today since CSX (rails) were happy. Coal and rails are connected at the hip. Also, the 'morning wake-up' trade is in play, a pairs-trade that is short donuts (KKD) and long coffee (JO).
Note Added 4:16 PM: On the earnings beat, the INTC results lay an egg and it trades lower. Ditto AXP trading lower. Intel may place a damper on chips that have been red-hot lately so watch SOX tomorrow. IBM is happy time trading higher after its results. Here's EBAY, in line results but lower guidance, so traders yell "Fleabay!" and sell it off by -5%. IBM is the winner but the others are takin' the pipe this evening.
if GS guy is right seems like at 1699-1705 the up trend will finish.
ReplyDeletenext is another wave 4 - the major wave 4 down = target 200 DMA or slightly below (20-30 points).
anyway after the present wave 4 of int V of major 3 the final wave 5 of int V of Major 3 is due at 1699-1705. Also watching out the possible truncation, considering that that's the final act of the uptrend of Major 3.
take care,
V.
Kid, don't be in such a hurry - if today/tomorrow 1686.10 is taken out, wave 3 of V of major 3 is extending.
DeleteGS guy
As promised I'll stick around here in the bottoms and tops areas.
DeleteIt's more like a promise made to me.
I don't like seeing dumb rotten retailers throwing their money - makes me kinda sad.
Shorting big up grinders (all the idiots that shorted the big up of SPX from 2012 November until now) or getting long in bear markets (i.e. gold now).
I'm after big money -corporate and funds' money not after lil' Joe and Annie's money (too much headache for too small results).
My opinions are not warranted success 100% but might help, who knows? ;)?
When I'll say someday in the future 'get the fuck out' , you get the fuck out , don't ask questions, ok ? I don't want (property) and don't have time to discuss all the TA factors behind the decision.
Now it's still a little bit of uptrend left. Tens of points, not more...
Gotta get set for work now, kiss'ya!
GS guy
one more thing: when I'll give the 'get out' signal don't go straight in shorts like a sleazy retailer cause you'll excite every trading machine in the world to continue the up trend. Stay in cash for 12-15-20 points and after that go nimble step by step in shorts.
DeleteGS guy