Friday, July 19, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 7/19/13; Detroit Belly-Up; GE; HON

Futures are challenged by the GOOG and MSFT earnings misses last evening but China is changing policy to allow banks to set lending rates which immediately creates a market bounce. Detroit is going into Chapter 9 bankruptcy due to massive debt. This once great automobile and Motown city, Motorcity, is now a dump due to political incompetence. Leaders are elected to chart the future path but all politicians care about is kick-backs and getting re-elected. Promises are made without care since the politico's know they will be out of office when it hits the fan. Detroit is a microcosm for the U.S.

GE earnings beat on EPS but miss on top line. GE is trading at 23.94 pre-market inside the red circle on this mornings chart and a viable short candidate moving forward. HON beat on earnings and increases guidance so it moves sharply higher, despite their beacons likely causing fires on the new 787's. Volatility remains the key element dictating broad market direction these days. Watch VIX 14.19. Bulls will rule if VIX stays under 14.19. Bears will growl strongly if the VIX moves above 14.19.

The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, the 8 MA is starting to curl to the downside for a potential negative 8/34 cross today.  The SPX begins at a new all-time closing high at 1689.37 and the bulls need to push above the all-time intraday high at 1693.12 to create an upside acceleration that will tag the psychological 1700 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1681 to gain downside mojo. A move through 1682-1692 is sideways action today. Watch to see if the descending triangle highlighted last evening on the SPX 10-minute chart (and corresponding ascending triangle on the VIX) play out today, or not. Today is OpEx so markets will likely see stronger volume on the open and on the close. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratio charts provided this morning clearly show that the markets are likely creating a significant top right now and should begin selling off at anytime in the days ahead. The Open Championship continues in Scotland with some golfers complaining about unfair greens and pin placements; of course these are the same golfers that hacked all day long. Zach Johnson, U.S.A., is the leader at -5 and tees off at 10 AM EST, one and one-half hour from now. Tiger is on the back side.

Note Added 9:38 AM:  SPX drops at the opening bell but the VIX is 13.87 remaining well under 14.19 so the bulls have no worries. TRIN 0.75 favoring bulls for today so far. Keystone took profits on SSG and will look to reenter. SSG is an inverse ETF against semiconductors that should have plenty of upside ahead. Also bot more SCO increasing this ongoing long position which is a short ETF against crude oil.

Note Added 10:11 AM:  SPX 1686.95 down a couple today. VIX 13.53 at the lows. TRIN 0.73. Low volatility and low TRIN makes for happy bulls despite the negative markets. WTIC crude oil hit 109, actually moving above Brent for first time in three years. WTI and Brent were trading in parity at 108.65 and 108.77, respectively, a short time ago. Save your money for the gasoline station. GOOG -3.3%.  MSFT -8.6% needing some aspirin tablets to counteract the ill effects of surface tablets. GE +5.0%.  HON flat as traders must have remembered that beacon-thingy, to paraphrase Sarah Palin. Market bears got nothing unless volatility moves higher.

Note Added 2:28 PM:  Look at the VIX collapse under 13 so the market bears do not have a chance today.  The Fed is stepping on the neck of volatility. Chairman Bernanke referenced the need for lower volatility in his testimony this week. Perhaps they can keep the VIX beach ball underwater long enough to position the offshore accounts short and then Bernanke will lift his Thom McAn so volatility can launch and markets can drop. For now, the VIX is at the lows at 12.88 far from the 14.19 bull-bear line in the sand and easily forecasting that the markets would recover today from earlier lows. TRIN is 0.86 remaining on the bull side so that keeps the market bears at bay as well. RUT, Dow and Nasdaq are negative and the SPX is a hair positive at 1690.22. Bulls need higher utilities and/or copper but both remain challenged which will make the market upside a harder trek. Bulls must punch up through the all-time high at 1693.12 to start running to 1700.

Note Added 2:38 PM:  The 8 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart was dropping to create a negative 8/34 cross and then whammo, after the opening bell, the VIX was crushed, exactly at 9:39 AM EST from VIX 13.97. This is the stick-save for equities after the opening bell to counteract the GOOG and MSFT negativity. The market recovery turned the 8 MA to the upside to avoid the negative 8/34 cross on the 30-minute chart and maintain the bullish signal for the hours ahead. The China bank policy change helps maintain equity buoyancy as well since the futures immediately popped on that news this morning before the day's regular trading session began. The VIX minute charts up through the 30-minute and 1-hour chart are positively diverged with falling wedges so VIX should recover higher into the close and place some pressure on the SPX again, however, the 2-hour chart is developing positive divergence more slowly, so the market bulls can maintain buoyancy in the broad indexes into next week. The SPX is moving sideways through the tight 8-point 1684-1693 range for the last two days. Thus, bulls win above 1693 and bears win below 1682-1684.

Note Added 3:37 PM:  SPX 1690.27.  VIX 12.86. TRIN 0.89.

Note Added 3:51 PM:  SPX 1691.19.  VIX 12.82. TRIN 0.88. A hair lower VIX and TRIN and a hair higher SPX.

Note Added 4:02 PM:  VIX was crushed from start to finish today which kept the broad indexes buoyant. VIX closes at the lows. SPX could not print a new all-time intraday high today although it did print a new all-time closing high at 1692.09. Tonight is Friday so over the next four or five hours is when companies or nations release bad news, under the cover of darkness. The newspaper headline writer's are joyous since they can pump the new all-time high theme again.

27 comments:

  1. KS, your SPX 10-minute chart was very useful in setting some early targets this morning. Thanks.

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  2. probably we will see today or on Monday the target for w3 or w5 (final) so the first (maybe the only 'get the f*ck out' exit call) is in the 1702-1706 area.

    the second target would be in the 1734-1745 area to be reached between 1-12 August 2013.

    the second target (potential wave v) is extremely exposed to truncation so use the last up wave at the start of August as shorts loader (in the area 1740 and higher).

    It can't go higher than 1772.

    GL!

    GS guy

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    1. targets for Major 4 down wave are:
      time target: 4-7 weeks
      price target: - 8.45 to - 10.75 %

      pay attention to 200 daily MA - it will be reached and maybe violated with 20-35 points.

      GS guy

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    2. ok, I see nobody has no question.
      I'll check this site at the end of the day.
      If not, see you at the bottom, below 200 DMA!
      I'll reappear nasty and joyful again! :)

      Hint: if 1672 is broken to the downside and when rechecked (back-kissed) the pivot of 1680 it becomes resistance that's when you load shorts! If you load now shorts all you will do is provide fuel to machines and they will overstrech the market on your short-covering at various levels.
      So pay attention to what I have said and prove discipline! Don't be a pig, be a bear (or a bull, according to the situation)! On Wall-Street we love pigs! You know how much we love them! :D!

      GL !

      GS guy

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    3. and please don't forget about my desire:

      from earnings if you donate 10% to one person/ family that really needs the money that would be my payment.
      At the bottom I'll reappear to get some good stocks and options on the long side, ok? (cause the bull market is not over, don't listen to those psychotic analysts like Prechter. When it will end you'll be the first to know :D).

      GS guy

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    4. I am leaning toward this scenario GS, but it will be a game day decision, if you know what I mean.:-)

      IF:
      1740 spx is the wave 5 target. After 1705-1710 we go down to 1650 area, give or take (feel free to chime in on a level).

      IF:
      1710 spx area is the top then your downside to about 1525-1480 area is in play.

      Thanks for the inputs, and I will donate to someone in need at any rate.

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    5. GS guy,

      I have something to ask you cause I have the impression that you just have given the information and disappeared.

      If you don't mind can you please during the day that Major 4 starts or one day after to give a sign here, something like a confirmation?

      I'm asking you this because waves can take until then multiple forms and a confirmation sign would help me (us) .

      Thank you,

      V.

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    6. Yes V,
      It's ok with me.

      GS guy

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    7. BarkMe,

      I'm inclined to believe now that we are now in an extended wave 3 of int v of major 3. An extended one (9 waves).
      Until now as you maybe saw in the previous posts I can count only 7 waves.
      After one small wave down the final wave might try to leave behind the upper limit of 1699 pivot (that's 1706). But it might be rejected some 30-35 points (wave 4 of int v of major 3) down to the lower levels of 1680 pivot but without getting lower that the lowest limit of 1680 pivot (and that's 1673).

      Be careful: if wave 4 will get lower than 1673 thus leaving 1680 pivot to the downside (1650's - 1660's) you have my assurance that wave 5 of int v of major 3 will truncate in the 1680 pivot area (1673-1687) or in the area of next pivot 1699 (1692-1706).

      The overextended type of wave 3 of V of major 3 combined with potential lost 1680 pivotal area will assure a truncated wave 5 of v of major 3.

      You will observe by yourself the nature of wave 4 and wave 5 and knowing the pivotal areas (1680, 1699, 1779) you will manage your own decisions. My opinion is that this market will not see 1779 pivot.

      This bull maket had a specific sign of it: the truncation of last 5th wave. I can't figure it out why it won't happen just the same now.

      But, as promised to V, I'll give a signal here after the start of Major 4.

      Knowing the maximum point reached by major 3 you can determine yourself the targeted area of downside (price target: - 8.45 to - 10.75 %). It's not a matter of market value target, it's a matter of % target area. Also, follow 200 DMA - it will be violated to the downside.

      Maybe it's just an intuition but I feel that the week previous to September OPEX/ or the week of September OPEX will be the targeted area to load a bunch of stocks/ option longs (at that moment all idiots - Roubini, Faber, others - will yell that OMG, OMG we will crash to 400-500 on S&P 500....BS!)

      GS guy

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  3. It does currently appear that markets can recover and move higher because volatility simply does not want to move up. The Fed keeps holding the VIX beach ball under water. So bulls are on easy street as long as VIX is under 14.19. Trouble begins above 14.19.

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  4. Hey Guys. Looking at XLF Bull flag pattern target sits at 21.00 correct? Do you see anything higher? Secondly, do you see a downside correction on XLF on par with SPX of 8.45 - 10.75%?

    Thanks
    C.

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    Replies
    1. All the financials should roll over with the broader indexes. Yep, the XLF bull flag target would be 21, HOD is 20.73, close enough for government work.

      Delete
  5. So GS, are we not expecting a pullback from 1705 down to 1670 before the August melt up to 1750-1772?

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    Replies
    1. Nevermind. I figured it out. Thanks guys.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous,

      A pattern can correct using price and/or time.
      Considering that we are dealing with an uptrend waiting for a certain internal correction of a certain amount of points is somewhat dangerous if shorting is your intention.

      What will you do if the assumed wave 4 of int v of major 3 will be just a dead sideways? Do you understand my point?

      In uptrends dips are buying opportunities not shorting opportunities.
      But here, at such alpine highs, buying the dip might work, but could be lethal considering the truncation possibilities of wave 5 of int v of major 3. When we already have a wave with subdivisions (present assumed wave 3) another up wave (the last one) with subdivisions has very few chances to appear (5% chances let's say). But the truncation chances are huge (over 65-70%) in case of the last upwave.
      That's why I've reduced my targets for wave 5 of int v of major 3 below the normal level (pivot 1799) to 1740's-1750's (to include the truncation possibilities).


      GS guy

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    3. GS guy, Thank you for all of your recent postings!

      Your details are communicated in a very logical manner. Like the way you explain via percentages. Will be looking for your posts here at/near tops and bottoms.

      Delete
    4. Thank you Rich R.

      GS guy

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  6. KS, Thank you for continuing to share your hard work.

    Great move in and out of JO!

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  7. Guys,

    Have you looked at VIX lately?
    Now that's what I call "toxic complacency" !
    VIX is starting to give signs of major topping area ...this kind of behaviour is visible in high topping patterns.

    V.

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  8. "... don't listen to those psychotic analysts like Prechter ..."

    Does anyone here remember Joe Granville?

    I didn't think so. LOL.

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    Replies
    1. oh, Joseph! The spiritual father of Pretcher , yes :) ... as market timing, of course :)..but he's old, was known in the early '90's and '80's.

      GS guy

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    2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_granville

      "... His investment seminars were bizarre extravaganzas, sometimes featuring a trained chimpanzee would could play Granville's theme song "The Bagholder's Blues," on piano. He once showed up at an investment seminar dressed as Moses, wearing a crown and carrying tablets. Granville made extravagant claims about his forecasting ability. He said he could predict earthquakes and once claimed to have predicted six of the past seven major world quakes. He was quoted by TIME Magazine as saying "I don't think that I will ever make a serious mistake in the stock market for the rest of my life," and he predicted that he would win the Nobel Prize in economics. ..."

      I don't think he ever did get that Nobel Prize.

      Joe might be more the spiritual father of Jim Cramer. :)

      This summer kind of reminds me of the summer of 2007. I wouldn't want to be long for next week.

      Thank you to the blog host and the commenters. Good stuff, always.

      Delete
  9. It is prudent to move out of longs now and bring on shorts. At the least send a substantial part of the portfolio into cash and let it sit there a while. The bulls stopped the downside today by crushing volatility and stick-saving the indexes but this only adds to the complacency and fearlessness. Typically markets rise at this time on Friday afternoon, and they may now, due to shorts paring back positions since weekends usually hold positive risk, however, with all the drama ongoing around the world, and who knows what Sunday night brings with China and Japan nowadays, be prepared especially for overnight negative event/s, which may very well be a catalyst that kicks the downside in gear. Give thought as to what you would do ahead of time to prepare for a sharp move lower for markets due to an overnight event.

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    Replies
    1. Keybot remains long so when Keybot decides to go short that will be a major tell for the downside.

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  10. During the afterhours, the cash equivalent of SPX futures jumped to 1693.90.
    10-12 points until wave minor 3 of int v of major 3 is finished - probably a Monday / Tuesday job.
    After that some downside , after that some upside and late July/ early August ...Bang! :)

    GS guy

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  11. KS and GS guy, what is your view of TLT when the major 4 correction hits? I am currently long TLT. Thanks guys.

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