Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Keystone's Midday Market Action 7/30/13

SPX 1684.  SOX 473.89 two points above danger. VIX 13.94 moving up today but remaining short of the 14.28 the bears need. VIX and SPX were both positive this morning which hinted that something is going on with volatility today. So VIX will likely become a bigger player now forward. GTX is 4799 remaining above the 4785 danger line.  So the bulls are hanging on despite the afternoon lull in the markets. Copper is collapsing today. TRAN is sitting exactly on its 20-day MA at 6427 deciding up or down.

SPX came down to tease the 1681-1682 support level that is important for today, and bounced. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead but the 8 is looking like it wants to stab down through over the next one-half hour or so. TRIN 1.03 reflecting market indecision unable to choose a side today. The SPX has explored today's upper limit at 1691-1692, and now the lower limit 1681-1682, and does not know which way to move, this 1681-1692 range is now a two-day range. Thus, bulls win above 1692 as 1700+ is on the way. Bears win under 1681 with the important 1670-1672 support on the way. Watch SOX 471.15, VIX 14.28, GTX 4785, and SPX 1681 and 1692. Whichever parameter gives way will send the markets in that respective direction.


Note Added 2:52 PM:  Banks keep weakening in recent days. One of the main reasons that equities keep floating higher to make new all-time highs is the financials. Traders that want to become bearish see the strength in financials and instead stay bullish. This may be changing. JPM is hit with a 400 million fine for alleged energy market manipulation. No wonder the protests and riots in the world are increasing. The banks continue to step on the average citizen, making billions in ill-gotten gains, then paying a token fine, and then everyone heads to the Hamptons for fun in the sun. No one ever goes to jail. No one is ever charged with wrong doing. Are the markets rigged? Of course they are. Bulls are jamming SPX higher to try and curl the 8 MA upwards and avoid the negative 8/34 cross mentioned above.

Note Added 3:00 PM:  The 10-year yield is 2.61% at the top of the one-week sideways range 2.56%-2.63%. $TNX is in a 5-week sideways range 2.46%-2.70%. SPX dead flat at 1685. SOX almost 475. VIX 13.74 dropping a quarter over the last hour allowing markets to float upwards off the afternoon bottom. GTX 4804.  TRIN 0.92. The 8 MA just stabbed down through the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart by only 2 pennies signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead but obviously, this may change back again before the closing bell. If the bulls push higher they should be able to reverse the negative cross once again to continue the indecisiveness and drama.

Note Added 3:11 PM:  That did not take long. Now the 8 is above the 34 again by a few pennies signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. This flip-flop 8/34 behavior simply does not occur often; it is very rare. It verifies that markets are frozen in place about to jump one way or the other but still do not know which way. Keystone took profits on the IYZ short covering the position. Will look to reenter short as telecom should have plenty of downside ahead. Also bot JO which is long coffee opening a new long position. Long coffee remains a Keystone fave moving forward for the considerable future.

Note Added 3:49 PM:  The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bearish markets ahead. This flip-flop action is ridiculous. Markets must decide. There is more drama ongoing than an episode of Madmen. SOX, VIX, GTX remain bullish. TRIN 0.95.

7 comments:

  1. I want everybody here to know that the bullish case (considering today's action) is still alive !

    That's what I wanted to tell all of you here!

    GS guy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, SOX, VIX and GTX are all bullish and the 8/34 cross is bullish on the 30-minute chart, however, markets remain on a tightrope inching along, receiving an upward bias, and it can change at any time if semi's, volatility or commodities turn sour. For now, the bulls keep driving the bus.

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  2. I'm involve more with oil and natty, this blog did not give me much info on oil and natty but I love to read every word from KS and GS guy plus V.

    Thank you to all of you!
    Speaking from my heart, your honesty and invaluable insights is greatly appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you,
      I really appreciate your words, I'm nothing but a beginner being compared to KS or GS guy.
      But I'll be better then them one day :D! Learning every second! :)

      V.

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    2. Natty slips into a bear market now which is down -20% from a peak. The peak of 4.4 down to 3.52 is a 20% drop. The summer humidity is taking a rest, finally, with nice moderate summer weather, not the oppressive heat, so this pressures natty price further for a few days. The president remains against fossil fuels like coal and natty which continues to handcuff these vital industries and prevent people from going back to work, or from natty to increase in demand. Natty is a huge part of fertilizer production so the carnage in MOS, POT, IPI, etc..., today further hurts natty. Lower natty also hurts coal. Big gap for natty from late February at 3.3-3.4 so price either stops at 3.4 and recovers moving sideways moving forward, or fills the gap and moves sideways and recovers. Natty will likely move through 3.0-4.5 for the considerable future until the politicians realize that natty will help save the country and economy if they would simply pursue this vital fuel source for transportation. Instead of fooling around with electric vehicles, that use fossil-fuel provided electricity, it would be far better to build the natty gas station infrastructure and use natty vehicles that have already existed for decades.

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  3. Thank you Anon for your kind words.
    Tomorrow (and all this week into the next one) try to keep in touch with this site in order to receive in real time KS's and my calls.

    Tomorrow might be a big turning day. Or not :)
    For the moment, the market set up in SPX kept it's neutral profile allowing more bullish or more bearish developments.
    Stay tuned... :)


    GS guy

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  4. The market is many things, but it usually isn't FUNNY. But can you imagine, KS... the $CPC falls to the complacent level of 0.78 on the eve of Bernanke's update. Pretty funny. Could be an interesting day. All the best...

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