The maroon lines show negative divergence across all indicators across the three-month time frame indicating that this move higher in equities has less oomph than May's rally. The top a few days ago was a three-day intraday top with price threatening a 1700+ break-through but falling short. This 3-day drama satisfied the small momo remaining in the money flow and MACD line so price really has no reason to move higher. The negative divergence has rolled price over to the downside and the stochastics, RSI and money flow are starting to print lower lows to create a weak and bleak profile. Technical-wise, price has no need to move higher but if Bernanke coughs and it sounds like QE the SPX will be up and over 1700.
Watch to see if price wants to come up for a look at 1700+. If so, monitor the thin red lines in the margin for the indicators. If price prints a higher high than last week, but all the indicators remain negatively diverged (under the thin red line), markets will roll over to the downside. If any of the indicators print above the thin red line, then the bulls will have juice for a few more days forward. Projection is for the SPX to roll over at any time forward and move sideways to sideways lower for the weeks ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
G'moooooorning ladies and gents ! :)
ReplyDeleteFreshy-freshy after the week-end? :)?
For today a few ideas for you all.
IF it goes below 1676 (to 1675 and lower) minor 4 is not finished.
IF not even 1676 (or not even 1680) it's minor 5.
Today (and maybe tomorrow) there will be maybe a pullback (maybe!).
A very good piece of advice: don't short in front (and in the face) of FOMC minutes. That doesn't mean that you should go long here. If you're not already long, just leave it!
After FOMC minutes a very serious short-squeeze might be registered according to my models until August 6-7-8 (aprox.) ... don't play 'hot-shot cow-boys' in front of FOMC minutes, ok?
Usually before a serious change of trend a capitulation move appears. If shorting, guess you don't want to be caught shorting by something like that.
I thought a little bit over the week-end and I have an idea. I will not comunicate anymore numeric targets related to the market (except numeric targets to next relevant top/bottom). I didn't like how minor 4 truncated with 5-7 points before my target, and let's say that I'm somewhat superstitious.
I will make a call of exit of all longs/stocks, but that will not be the end of the present uptrend.
The end of the uptrend (+/- 7-10 points to the EXACT TOP) will be marked by me with a call for shorts loading.
Ok?
If you want a more logical approach that the "superstition" reason: the guys with real money have some toys called ' quant sofware ' or , more popular, HFT's. And also those programs have integrated software modules of tracking information feeds, high-rating blogs, press agencies, and other sources.
I'll be here with you and KS and we'll work ok. This thing it's like not placing stops in the market cause you know that there are "stops hunting raids" made by the bad boys with their robots. So, I know where this wave will finish, I can tell it here, but I prefer not.
I will mark the special moment by 2 calls: 1) exit all longs / stocks and 2) load shorts as per 50% of total capital (the second 50% will be loaded after the technical confirmation of the new downtrend).
OK?
These are the rules of my game.
GS guy
Sounds good to me GS. As always, I appreciate the info and will donate should your calls be correct. :)
ReplyDeleteNo, not if my calls will be correct.(They will be)
DeleteIf you'll make money on the medium term according to my medium to long term calls. And you'll make money, be sure of that.
The shorter the time span, the higher the risk of not being right.
Look at what happened on Friday : I called a bottoming level for minor 4 and I was tricked with 5-7 points! But on relevant waves (majors, primary) that will not happen.
That's why I've told everybody here that I'm not posting for day-traders.
GS guy
Thank you for being such an outstanding mentor! On behalf of all members of this forum, we look forward to the coming two weeks in anticipation! We are indeed most grateful to you, knowing that at the right moment, we shall enter our major 4 short with a perfect technical set-up! We must just prepare ourselves to receive your signal without any form of distraction.
ReplyDeleteAlso follow KS - he is a top technician that has his own system.
DeleteAn intelligent approach will be not to just follow me, but to compare what I'm saying here to what he's publishing and to his technical signals.
Use multiple sources - it's the best thing to do!
GS guy
Thank you. May I comment..whilst I have expressed my deepest admiration for all yours and KS' mentoring, is it simplistic to mention, that we should perhaps consider your major 4 shorting signal being activated outside the USA session, and the steps necessary to prepare ourselves for such an eventuality?
DeleteI consider only the US session market levels. Follow the futures but don't consider them primary as importance.
DeleteYes, Major 4 could start with a gap down in the US session.
that's why I'll give at a certain moment a call for exiting all longs / stocks although there will be some more upside left.
You can figure it out that I'm not that crazy to give to 100% exit call during the last points, don't you? :)?
For now there's still more to follow to the upside - you'll see that after FOMC minutes combined with buying associated with end of month/start of a new month.
Don't get all trembling and shaking - it
doesn't matter if now it's still minor 4 of minute 2 of minor 5. The down potential movement is limited and there's still relevant upside to see.
GS guy
''Don't get all trembling and shaking - it
Deletedoesn't matter if now it's still minor 4 of minute 2 of minor 5. ''
edit~
'' Don't get all trembling and shaking - it doesn't matter if now it's still minor 4 OR minute 2 of minor 5".
still working on my morning coffee :D
GS guy
Thank you GS guy. I have no fear of trembling with such expert counsel, suffice to say, that I work with the fabulous Meta 4 trader platform! Of course, I am aware that you are not crazy about giving a 100% exit call during the last points!! I just don't understand why there are not more traders in this inspiring forum than there appear to be! As an aside, I concur with your recent comment, who wants to be a day trader with all the related stress, when we can await your signal, load two batches of shorts and sitback, against a backdrop that in a further 6-8 weeks we shall be able to go long, with a virtually risk-free set-up! It is a gift from the Gods.
ReplyDelete