SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided below for trading the week of 7/22/13. Last week creates new all-time closing and intraday highs above the May highs. A move above 1693 will likely lead to a move to the psychological 1700. The bears need to push under 1684 to develop downside mojo. A move through 1685-1691 is sideways action for Monday.
The support areas below are 1687, 1683-1685, 1680-1681, 1678, 1675, 1672 and strong support at 1669. This is uncharted waters for the SPX. The 20-day, 50-day and 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart are at the 1636-1649 cluster so this should be viewed as very strong support and a key area where bulls win above 1649 but bears win under 1636. The bulls begin the day and new week running higher printing a new all-time intraday high minutes ago at 1695.05 so pay attention to this number moving forward. The all-time closing high is 1692.09 so watch to see if the closing print today registers a new closing high, or not.
The support areas below are 1687, 1683-1685, 1680-1681, 1678, 1675, 1672 and strong support at 1669. This is uncharted waters for the SPX. The 20-day, 50-day and 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart are at the 1636-1649 cluster so this should be viewed as very strong support and a key area where bulls win above 1649 but bears win under 1636. The bulls begin the day and new week running higher printing a new all-time intraday high minutes ago at 1695.05 so pay attention to this number moving forward. The all-time closing high is 1692.09 so watch to see if the closing print today registers a new closing high, or not.
· 1693 (7/18/13 All-Time Intraday High: 1693.12) (7/18/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1693.12) (Previous Week’s High: 1693.12)
· 1692 (7/19/13 All-Time Closing High: 1692.09) (7/19/13 Closing High for 2013: 1692.09)
· 1692.09 Friday HOD
· 1692.09 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
· 1689
· 1687 (5/22/13 Intraday High Top: 1687.18)
· 1686
· 1685
· 1684.08 Friday LOD
· 1684
· 1683
· 1681
· 1680
· 1678
· 1675
· 1674
· 1673
· 1672.17 (10-day MA)
· 1672 (Previous Week’s Low: 1671.84)
· 1669 (5/21/13 Closing Top: 1669.16)
· 1666
· 1661
· 1659
· 1655
· 1654
· 1652
· 1651
· 1650
· 1649
· 1647
· 1646.47 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
· 1640
· 1639.58 (50-day MA)
· 1639
· 1638.72 (20-day MA)
· 1636
· 1634
· 1632
· 1629
· 1627
· 1626
· 1624
· 1623
· 1618
· 1614
· 1611
· 1609.32 (20-week MA)
· 1609
· 1607
· 1606 (July begins at 1606.28)
· 1605
· 1602.53 (100-day MA)
· 1600
· 1598
· 1597
· 1593 (4/12/13 Market Top: 1593.30)
· 1589
· 1586
· 1583
· 1579
· 1578
· 1576 (10/11/07 Intraday High: 1576.09)
· 1569
· 1565 (10/9/07 Market Top: 1565.15)
· 1564
· 1563
· 1561.05 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
· 1561
· 1560 (6/24/13 Intraday Low)
· 1556
· 1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76) (3/24/00 Top: 1552.87)
· 1552
· 1551
· 1548
· 1546
· 1544
· 1539
· 1536.32 (10-month MA)
· 1536
· 1531
· 1528 (3/24/00 Closing Top: 1527.46)
· 1525
· 1524.84 (200-day MA)
· 1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)
· 1521
· 1520
· 1518
· 1517.54 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
· 1516
· 1514
· 1512
· 1510.46 (50-week MA)
· 1509
· 1505
· 1503
· 1500
· 1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)
· 1495
· 1489
· 1485
· 1481
· 1476
· 1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)
· 1472
· 1468
· 1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)
· 1465
· 1461
· 1460
· 1457
· 1456
· 1453
· 1447
· 1446
· 1444
· 1441
· 1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)
· 1438 (9/13/12 Fed Announces QE3 Infinity)
· 1435
· 1433
· 1431
· 1430 (12/12/12 Fed Announces QE4 Infinity and Beyond)
· 1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)
· 1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63) (2013 Begins at 1426.19)
· 1424
· 1422
Hey KS, I apologize if I should know this already, but whats the difference in the red vs bold earnings announcements? Are the red ones uberimportant and the bold ones just somewhat important?
ReplyDeleteGS guy, out of interest, what was the cause for your minor change in target for v of 3 from 1702-1706 to 1705-1710?
Thanks, BK
Yep BK, the companies in bold are more important such as housing stocks, rails, important techs and such. The bold and red ones are big time, such as MCD this morning that slightly soured the day, and UPS, AAPL and such. The red ones are large blue chip bellwethers and typically make up the Dow Dirty 30. UPS and CAT are important this week since they tell a lot about the health of the global economy, or lack thereof.
Deletethe gap up over the lower limit of 1699 pivot (that's 1692) at the end of Friday and in futures in the first 15 minutes on Friday after the close.
Deletethis bullish behaviour of the market received in my models used to make projections a premium of potential 3 to 4 more points, maybe an exhausted try to jump over the higher limit of 1699 pivot (that's 1706)... up to a maximum of 1710.
Anyway, target for wave 3 of int v of major 3 is an area (1696-1705) that has potential extensions to 1692 - 1710.
That would project for wave 5 of int v of major 3 a target of 1770-1780 if, pay attention: IF it will not truncate. Last fifth waves are very prone to truncation, so pay attention to that. You don't unload stocks and long options in the last up wave (5 of int v of major 3) but during the 3'rd and 4'th of int v of major 3. So I kindly ask all readers not to dream to great ups to 1770-1780 and be caught with stocks/longs at the top , ok? I don't say such a outcome is impossible (1770-1780) but I don't believe in it.
---
For nw: this little fading this morning might want to give a little kiss to 1687-1688 - if wave 4 of int v of major 3 didn't started already (my wild guess is that it didn't). After that: 1700's are the target.
GS guy
Keystone's 80/20 rule says the close above 1680 hints that 1720's should print in the future so this would be in line with the calls above 1700. Perhaps a look at the SPX charts will provide some clarity.
DeleteSorry for the following newb question but unfortunately that's the only question I know how to ask.
ReplyDeleteThat said, in doing minimal research on pivots, I gathered that they generally take into account the previous days price action to hint at trends and there seems to be more than one way to calc them. What is the significance of pivot points and is there an ideal way to calc them?
Thanks, BK
Pivot points were originally developed by floor traders in the equity and commodity exchanges. They are calculated based on the high, low and closing prices of previous trading sessions, and are used by traders to predict support and resistance levels in the current or upcoming session. These support and resistance levels can be used by traders to determine entry and exit points - both for stop losses and profit taking.
DeleteThe pivot point for the current trading session is calculated as:
Pivot Point = (Previous High + Previous Low + Previous Close) / 3
for day trading:
Resistance Level 1 = (2 * Pivot Point) - Previous Low
Support Level 1 = (2 * Pivot Point) - Previous High
Resistance Level 2 = (Pivot Point - Support Level 1) + Resistance Level 1
Support Level 2 = Pivot Point - (Resistance Level 1 - Support Level 1)
Resistance Level 3 = (Pivot Point - Support Level 2) + Resistance Level 2
Support Level 3 = Pivot Point - (Resistance Level 2 - Support Level 2)
It's not such a hard thing to determine.
First observe the R and S levels and than claculate pivots for intraday or for other periods (week, month...).
GS guy
Yep, and some traders adapt this same methodology to the weekly numbers as well. To keep things simple if first starting to follow all this, simply pay attention to the prior day's high and low as key R and S for the current day. Accelerations occur (several handles in the SPX) in the same direction if these limits are violated.
DeleteThank you KS and GS guy!
DeleteInteresting stuff learned today by me. Thanks.
V.
Great info KS and GSG. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBK
Glad 2 help u BK!
ReplyDeleteThis 3rd wave of int v of major 3 is sooooo lazy!
C'mon sonny! Bang it to the target ! :)
1700's is waiting !! Come to biggie' poppa! :)
GS guy
I guess you don't load now on shorts, don't you? :)?
DeleteImagine what will happen to your shorts if wave 3 of int v of major 3 is not 1.618 of wave 1, but has a ratio of 2.618! :) lol! It will burn your shorts!
So, cash (as KS also stated) is a position ''per se'' ! Don't short here, don't asume risks!
A 3'rd wave that has a 2.618 ratio to wave 1 will be felt by a shorter in his portfolio like a slo'-mo' train wreck!
Leave this 3'rd wave and all Major 3 to complete before thinking of shorting! God damn it there are more than 200, maybe 250 points waiting for you on the downside, why jerking for 25-35 points now before a final wave 5 of int v of major 3 ?!?!
Stay calm and be polite with the market!
GS guy
Ha I love this guy. He even taunts the market. As an avid follower of this blog, I will def miss you as the market finally starts tanking and we're no longer near a top. And to think I really disliked you in your early days here. Certainly not complaining now. Poor misjudgment on my part.
ReplyDeleteBK
well thank you BK !:)
Delete(anyway, in day-to-day life I'm a jerk hated by employees, but who cares? I don't care! :D)
GS guy