Friday, July 26, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up and Midday Market Action 7/26/13; Consumer Sentiment

China cuts manufacturing capacity. Copper is weak all morning long now near the lows down -1.1%. Japan data shows a hint of inflation so interestingly, the Nikkei drops -3%, with the dollar/yen pair dropping to 98.69 now through the 99 level (stronger yen). Traders must think that the BOJ may pull back on QE since there are signs it is working and creating inflation. Global markets are clearly manipulated 24/7 by central banker actions. GS's Blankfein says the Fed will continue stimulus for a 'considerable time'

Next week is a central banker parade with the FOMC, BOE and ECB all on tap. The Fed is all-in so anything new is unlikely. The risk would appear to be on the downside. Chairman Bernanke's main goal with all the Fed shenanigans is 'time'. Time heals all wounds and if Bernanke can keep the stock market elevated, he believes that the entire economy and job market will recover. One thing is for certain is that this will not occur on his watch. The Fed would be very content if the SPX bounced between 1600 and 1700 for the next few years since time should eventually lead to a stable economy. Next week will be interesting to see if the word taper appears again. The Fed may be playing a game of moving the equity markets up and down through SPX 1600-1700 to keep allowing time to pass. The Fed may have to utter the word taper since Bernanke must prevent the new asset bubbles, that he is causing, in the stock market, to not get too out of hand at the same time. Traders are likely thinking a lot about the central banker drama next week. Consumer Confidence, GDP, ISM Mfg and Monthly Jobs Report are on tap and the EOM as well. It will be a big week for markets.

The weaker dollar as a result of the Fed's QE talk during July has sent commodities and the stock market higher. At the same time the weaker dollar elevates the euro to 1.3272 near 1.33. Europe actually needs a weaker euro to help their economy. The dollar is key in the days ahead. The 10-year yield is 2.57% five bips off the 2.62% for much of the day yesterday. Utilities are interesting. Type 'UTIL' in the search box at the right to bring up the last chart. The UTIL 523 level was of interest this week and next week the number only increases to 528. UTIL is at 502 so as long as price stays under the 528 through next week, the utility sector weekly downtrend is ongoing and typically forecasts trouble for equities. As highlighted recently, the NYMO, SPXA150R and CPC and CPCE put/call charts all also hint that a market pull back is near. The bulls have remained bullish, even through the May-June sell off, since the financials have remained buoyant. As pointed out with the XLF chart a short while back, negative divergence on the daily and weekly charts point to a spank down and the recent action starts to show price rolling over. If the financials start selling off and falling, many bulls will rethink their approach to the markets. Financials and tech should lead higher, they always did in the past. Tech is lackluster and if financials lose their shine, market bulls will become disappointed.

Markets are a deer in the headlights this week, frozen in place and ready to leap one way or the other. Copper and volatility remain the key market drivers right now. Watch JJC 39.22 and VIX 14.18. JJC is only pennies away from returning to the bull camp, however, as mentioned above, copper is getting slapped today so JJC will fall at the opening bell. Bulls win with JJC 39.22. Bears win with VIX 14.18.  Everything else is noise and the markets will stagger sideways until one of these two flinch. Semiconductors are very important now as well. If SOX falls under 470.70, that signals lots of market downside ahead. Keybot the Quant remains long but the markets appear very shaky and if either VIX or SOX joins the bear camp, the algo may flip short.

For the SPX, starting at 1690, the bulls need to move above 1691, only one point higher, to accelerate a move 1700. The bears need to push under 1680 to accelerate the downside. If the sub 1680 occurs and VIX moves above 14.18 and/or SOX under 370.70, the equity downside ahead is very real and sustainable. A move through 1681-1690 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are -6 but the bears will need more juice than that. About 68% of the earnings are beating the lowered EPS estimates with top line revenue remaining weak.  SWK, TYC and WY (lumber) earnings are of interest as a gauge for housing and industrial sector strength, or lack thereof. Consumer Sentiment at 10 AM will create a market pivot point. JJC 39.22, VIX 14.18, SOX 470.70 and SPX 1691 and 1680 dictate market direction today.

Note Added 9:22 AM:  S&P's -7. Dow -76. Nasdaq -8. Dollar/yen 98.28. Euro 1.3273. The 10-year yield is 2.54%. Gold, oil, silver, copper are all down.  Looks like a move towards VIX 14.18, SOX 470.70 and SPX 1680 may occur but bears will need more gas. Markets will not settle in today until after the 10 AM pivot. Markets will meander until either copper, volatility or semi's make a decision.

Note Added 10:18 AM:  Consumer Sentiment is at a six-year high and slightly exceeding the 85-ish highs in early November 2012 and May 2013. Interestingly, the sentiment readings in the 80's occurred October 2012 into early November which identified the market top with the happy sentiment. Sentiment then fell into the 70's again until May through now with sentiment back in the 80's again. Equities pivot to the downside at 10 AM since traders think the Fed may taper due to rosy sentiment. The central bankers are the third man on the field now fully intertwined with markets. SPX 1683.69. Note the SPX drop at the opening bell was sufficient enough to send the 8 MA lower and maintain the negative 8/34 cross on the 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. Looks like it is the bears turn to tease with potential 8/34 crosses only to maintain a lower trend and frustrate the bulls. Bulls got nothing unless they move the 8 MA above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart. JJC is 38.09 collapsing over one dollar under the 39.22 bull-bear line so copper may be cooked. VIX 13.28 remaining under the 14.18 bull-bear line.  SOX 472.77 now recovering off the LOD at 471.59. This is inching very close to the SOX 470.70 bull-bear line and semiconductors may very well be the decider for markets moving forward. TRIN is 1.00 unable to choose a side today.  Markets stumble sideways into the weekend since JJC, VIX or SOX will not make a decision. Watch SOX today; semi's may make a bearish statement. Dollar/yen 98.10 now about to drop through 98. Lower dollar/yen should mean lower equities. Euro 1.3276 flat. The 10-year yield is 2.57%. The asset relationship, at least over the last few hours, appears to be lower dollar/yen (stronger yen) = lower equities = lower commodities = lower yields (higher Treasury prices), a disinflationary vibe.

Note Added 10:41 AM:  SOX 470.70 is key. Price is coming down for another look with SOX now at 471.77.  If the bulls hold 470.70, markets will recover today into the weekend. If SOX loses 470.70, only one point away now, equities will fall apart and selling will enter the markets in force. A SOX failure would likely occur in concert with the SPX 1680 failure, today's support target. So semi's are the key today, as SOX goes, so goes the markets.

Note Added 11:08 AM:  SOX is teasing 370.70 but for now the bulls are holding the line preventing failure. SPX 1680 failed so price lost four handles to a LOD at 1676.03 but the semi's are holding so price recovers. SOX 470.70 holds the power of up or down today. Pay attention to the LOD at 1676.03 moving forward. VIX 13.59. TRIN 1.30, bearish for today. Perhaps the TRIN may make its move higher after the unprecedented 11 consecutive days of sub one closing prices supporting the bullish case. JJC loses the 38 level.

Note Added 2:05 AM:  The 11 AM excitement was the bottom in equities for today thus far. The TICK a few minutes before 11 AM is -1000 signaling overdone selling and bounce time. Interestingly, the SOX prints a LOD at 470.47 a touch under the critical 470.70 but the bears could not hold the negativity. Bulls have the SOX at 372.02 right now, in the bull camp, but this drama has only started today. VIX is crushed again today. What else is new? VIXis now printing 13.15 dropping from 13.70+ this morning so any drop in volatility sends equities higher. TRIN 1.26 remaining in the bear camp today. Copper is takin' the pipe with JJC at 38.05. For bulls to gain upside market fuel, higher copper and utilities are needed. Neither appears to be cooperating. Both appear weak. The bears have their own problems needing to push volatility higher and semiconductors lower. The SOX 470.70 parameter is the nearest bull-bear danger line so use that as the main rudder into the closing bell and for Monday morning. Bulls win keeping SOX above 470.70. Bears will start selling the markets in force if SOX 470.70 fails.

Note Added 2:16 PM: SPX 1687.26 now only down a couple. Dollar/yen 98.10. SOX 471.65. Semi's now within a buck of failure again. VIX 13.07. TRIN 1.15. Lower volatility and TRIN so SPX floats up a handle or two.

Note Added 3:23 PM:  SOX moves higher to 472.23. VIX moves lower under 13. TRIN at 1.04 down towards neutral.  Higher semi's, lower volatility and lower TRIN takes the wind out of the bear sails and pushes equities higher. Short sellers pare back positions on Friday afternoons for concern over positive news events on the weekend providing market lift. SPX is above 1689 at the highs for today. Dollar/yen 98.27 agreeing with the move up in equities. Nasdaq is positive. Today is a repeat of yesterday with markets dropping until 11 AM when the POMO pump kicks in and floats the markets higher the remainder of the day. The Fed is the market.

Note Added 3:38 PM:  Trannies (TRAN) are down -1.8% this week with the Dow and SPX flat. Small caps (RUT) down -0.3% this week. Tech (Nasdaq) the strongest but with mixed signals up +0.6%. XLF (financials) down -0.6% this week. Trannies, small caps and financials should all be where tech is if the markets are in a healthy robust up move.

Note Added 7/27/13 at 6:29 AM: The 8 MA crossed above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Looks like the bulls have legs with the late day crush of volatility and the run to SPX 1700+ early next week is back on the table. The bears are foiled again. The Fed will not allow the stock market to correct.

52 comments:

  1. Hi KS,
    Could you comment on EUO (shorting euro).
    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. The euro has moved up (EUO down) due to the recent weakness in the dollar. The Fed is beating the dollar lower with all the happy QE talk. XEU has a rising wedge vibe and EUO a falling wedge vibe over the last couple weeks. Euro stochastics on daily are overbot but considering the last high in June at 1.34, that is not a far piece for the euro to move to now. The indicators are open to that move. Weekly chart appears like a lot of sideways ahead. Same with dollar, so there may be a simpatico developing and euro and dollar move sideways. So EUO is sideways ahead, nothing real exciting. Looks like the 18.20 support cannot be ruled out even a drop to 17.80. EUO is a tough call so it is in sit and watch mode, the next few days will tell a lot. It appears that 18.2 may be considered as a long entry with the anticipation to add more if it drops. If EUO pops and runs above 18.8 right now, it should continue higher but the indicators hint that a look at 18.2 is preferred, even if only a quickie intra-session touch.

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    2. Thank you for the great info!
      Will keep an eye on it.

      Delete
  2. weeell, hello ladies and kind gents! :)
    how are you today? ok? ready for last working day of the week?
    Ok! :)
    Today we have only Michigan U. consumer sentiment. Don't give a d*mn about it , but it will move the market.
    As exact location in the market (after studying also the futures) we still are in the 'B' wave, minor 4.
    The futures are down (d*mn asians and europeans! :D) and the wave 'B' registered an 'a' wave of 'B' of minor 4 during yesterday's US session, a 'b' wave of 'B' of minor 4 mostly during european session, and here we are now!
    We will open with a gap down probably and the first move will be (probably) to close the gap to the upside prior to Mich.U.consumer sentiment. After M.U. consumer sentiment, if we see 'B' closed and finished we might experience a down 'C' to end all minor 4 today.
    Or not.
    Maybe today's US session will only end the 'c' of B of minor 4 (an up wave) - up to 1691(.618 retracement) -1695 (.786 retracement)...and the last minor 4 segment ('C' wave is reserved to Monday/Tuesday in order to "Senor Ben and tha' kool gang" to pick up the market in minor 5 after FOMC minutes are published next week.

    So: here you are 2 different scenarios. Either we sharply finish minor 4 today and that's it. Or we finish it until the end of Tuesday (next week).

    The FOMC minutes will joyfully mark the start of the last minor up wave before the Major 4 down.

    Good luck all!

    GS guy

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  3. Thanks GS. Off to work myself right now. Cheers.

    C.

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    Replies
    1. That's a good thing, C. !
      Man has evolved during the decades of centuries only due to the working process!
      Work is good!

      GS guy

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  4. "GS's Blankfein says the Fed will continue stimulus for a 'considerable time'."

    Still doing God's work, Mr. Blankfein ? :)? (anyway he doesn't read KS's blog) :)
    Miss him. He's a good man.

    GS guy

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    Replies
    1. GS's Blanfein hits again :)
      http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/07/26/goldmans-blankfein-the-worse-absolutely-will-happen/?mod=MW_home_latest_news

      Bring the holy water and the crucifix and do some more of that God's work with the concept of infinity, Mr Blankfein ! :))))

      V.

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  5. Hi GS guy,
    Is it possible that yesterday's high was wave B of minor 4 and that at today's open we're already in wave 3 of C of minor 4?
    Thanks

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  6. Good morning GS. I note your revised target, minor 5 of int v of major 3 is 1730-1745! May I dare mention, a student of Gann theory forecasts a compelling peak for the markets on 16th August! Welcome to supply the url if asked! Also, whilst I follow your comments to the minute, do you have any views on the Metal of Kings, perhaps a forecasted bottom for GOLD early October! Thank you and much appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't touch gold until I'll see it at 1050-1085.
      It's in a small, although furious, bear market - that's so obvious!
      Gold will be interesting after 2016-2017 and at much much lower levels (hundreds, not thousands dollars).
      Regarding the time target follow closely the August 7-12 period (anyway, the week starting with August 5).

      GS guy

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  7. Thanks GS.
    May I ask how you get your 'below35%'?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. my 'below 35%' is a personal assessment according to the number of occurrences observed during the time in the market.
      it's a personal opinion if you want, not a guarantee.
      Do your homework if you are day trader. I don't assume not a single piece of responsability for day traders in what I'm doing here, ok ?

      GS guy

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  8. Please observe the structure of waves.
    the 'a' of B wave first jumped after wave 'A' of minor 4 verified the pivot where previous intraday high (the one from May 22) reached.
    the assumed 'b' of B (observed in futures overnight) started from the 0.618 retracement area (1690-1692), had a clear impulsive structure and ended where? In the 1680 pivot. But if you take a look at BB (Bollinger Bands) on 60 min where stopped the descending impulse? Right in the lower BB (in fact "bite it" a little bit). Check also on futures 60 min the MACD - it appears to me that the negative cycle matured so what will follow? A positive cycle of 6-9 candles on 60 min.

    Ok, I can continue and write a big message but I don't have time for that now.
    You don't have to listen to me, please do your own homework! I'm a human, not a machine, I might be wrong!

    Always do your homework when it comes to day-trading! I comment here on small periods not to incite the retailers to trade daily, but to know where they are now.
    As I promised I'll continue the follow-thru into the Major 3 top.


    GS guy

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  9. Replies
    1. you're not mad at me, don't you?
      we're friends, ok ?

      GS guy

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    2. Of course we are friends! All you're saying helps me a lot!
      This is a very sincere thanks!
      J

      Delete
  10. gs, if I understood right, aug 5 week, you are expecting a temporary low in gold

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    Replies
    1. No.
      In that reply there were 2 subjects : a general opinion on gold and the potential period of starting major 4 down on S&P 500. The "Aug 5 week" was related to S&P 500, was not on gold.

      I don't follow gold, not one of my interesting subjects...until at or below 1100 $.

      GS guy

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  11. Watch semiconductors closely today. SOX 470.70-ish is important and price is in the neighborhood. Markets will head lower if SOX loses 470.70. Markets will recover if the bulls can hold the line and prevent SOX 470.70.

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  12. GS,
    Does the market break through 1680 make your change your count?

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    Replies
    1. I'm watching the situatio nwith a big grin on my face.
      I want to see that big candle closing on hourly at that sub-1680 level AND HAVING follow-thru to the downside. If I don't see that, it was just an idiot with a lot of money that distorted the market for some minutes.

      So, if that idiot has the power to do it, ok, let him finish Minor 4 today.
      I don't think he can.

      GS guy

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  13. So Artkaia....

    Where's the follow-thru ???????????????????????????????????

    I want to see it :). If we finish Minor 4 today it would be a whole lot easier for me.
    4th waves are stinky, don't like them cause they are full of traps.

    So: the follow-thru, please! The idiot that distorted the market for about 3-4 minutes is kindly asked to provide also the follow-thru!

    GS guy

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  14. SOX did not break 470.70 as yet either, so markets recover. Probably will make another run at it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you KS for assisting us real-time in the most accurate way!

      V.

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    2. Also, Thanks to GS guy! Great son of a gun! :)
      Didn't knew that markets can be so interesting! :D!

      V.

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  15. KS, thanks for helping to prepare us for this end-of-week weakness. The utes aren't going to be anywhere near where they have to be today. Will that (at least partially) dampen any Fed/ECB bullishness next week?

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    Replies
    1. It's interesting. Bulls need utes and copper, both are sick. Bears need higher volatility and semiconductors to fail. One of these four will flinch and dictate direction. SOX 470.70 is today's drama and a candidate to potentially point down. Bernanke is all in so probably non-event but BOE and ECB may cause some action. If euro is pushed lower, dollar will rise and commodities and U.S. equities should move lower. Can only take it day to day, hour to hour with all the central banker intervention and interference.

      Delete
  16. I think we might have touched wave 3 of C of minor 4 @ SPX 1676, then go for a rebound then end minor 4 @1670-72 today. Then Minor 5 as you predicted to 1700+

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    Replies
    1. and what will you do with your scenario if it goes for the rest of the day only straight up ?!? You will scratch your head, won't you ?!? :D?

      GS guy

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  17. To Artkaia, all:

    Now it is simple, very simple:

    version A: we are still in the 'B' wave if we assume that there's no follow-thru to the break below 1680 observed today (right now at the end of 'b' of 'B' of minor 4) -> a run to 1691-1695 to complete 'C' of minor 4 is expected IF THERE'S NO FOLLOW-THRU to 1662-1672 levels.

    version B: minor 4 had 'A' wave at 1677 / 'B' wave at 1690-1692 / and 'C' wave at 1676 (but might fall more today, during the day to 1662 +/- levels).
    Under this version next is Minor 5.

    In attn. of all day traders that might be damn fooled by today 'fake' break of 1680:
    - if it's Minor 5 it will break 1699 without any problem continuing it's road up to low-to mid 1700's.
    - if it's still wave 'C' of Minor 4 it will get really muddy and stuck in the 1691-1695 area with a fall to 1658-1666/1667 area.

    But I'm not here for day-traders, but for normal retailers. Anyway, daytraders should pay attention to what happened 30 minutes ago! A crappy trap has been set under out eyes!!!

    GS guy

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    Replies
    1. Artkaia and all day traders here:

      Look in this kind of situations, when I worked as a floor trader my tradegy was to not use more than 10-20% of my capital no matter what the position was (long/short).
      I was a hot-hands trader before getting a little bit older and working only on bigger waves (primary/majors). I never refused a a 'trap' (like it's the one now).
      But never used all/majority of capital!
      I recommend you to do that (either getting long now up to maximum 1690's to 1699 or shorting from 1690's-1699).
      Ok?
      Save your capital for greater things like Major 4! The jerks have set a trap there by hitting potential wave 'b' of 'B' into starting point of wave 'a' of 'B' (to make us believe that Minor 4 ended there)!

      Be very, very careful with longs from here, ok?
      Anyway getting long here , at the end of Major 3 is something dangerous!

      GS guy

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    2. edit~ :)
      "my strategy" not "my tradegy" :D

      GS guy

      Delete
  18. KS and GS! You two are amazing! Thank you both!
    We get every last detail of the markets with KS everyday market top/bottom or not, rain or shine. Then we get the percentages and wave numbers to watch with GS at market tops/bottoms. Awesome. Exciting time in the market! I have hope now to execute well.

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  19. GS,
    I am a little lost here, so we reached 1676 earlier, is that a micro "C" wave of minor 4?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. read all previous messages to/from Artkaia
      it's hard to repeat all data one more time.

      GS guy

      Delete
  20. KS spends so much time and energy giving detail charts on a free blog, thanx a lot . Thnk to GS also.

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  21. I thought a little bit and thought one more time.
    All I have here is a technical problem to declare Minor 4 closed: A is not fully equal to C - there are some 5-7 points from C that are missing.

    You can consider that Minor 4 ended at 1676 but technically there's a fault there. There are missing points from C or 'C' is incomplete and there's more to come.

    It's a hard technical moment.
    I disagree with you getting long during the very last up wave (minor 5 of int v of major 3) - it's almost like getting short in the bottoming zone = NOT A GREAT IDEA.
    FOR RETAILERS, use the segment of minor 5 that will be higher (probably) than the peak of minor 3 to dump all, and I mean ALL longs and stocks. Also use for that the area of minor 3 peak (1699 +10/-5 points).

    Minor 4 retraced only 23.6 % of Minor 3 (another unexpected outcome).

    Let's consider Minor 4 ended today - but please keep in the background of your mind the fact that Minor 4 was not technically a full wave and UNTIL 1699 IS TAKEN TO THE UPSIDE INTO MINOR 5 THERE'S STILL THE PRESUMPTION OF MINOR 4 INCOMPLETE (A almost= to C, only 23.6% retracement of Minor 3, instead of a decent 32.8%, some internal structural problems).

    UNTIL 1699 IS TAKEN TO THE UPSIDE, the idea of Minor 4 ended has a big " ? " attached to it.
    That doesn't mean shorting like hell here hoping that there's a final 'C' of Minor 4 to come - maybe it won't come. Don't short here! Most retailers do that - calling for big cascades in the final part of up waves , and the up wave is going up,up,up...and the retailers' accounts going down, down, down.

    One more thing: considering the principle of alternation, Minor 2 was a very shallow wave, it was expected that Minor 4 to be a more solid wave.
    For day traders only: if getting long here for Minor 5 be very nimble and work with less capital than usual, ok?
    Common retailers using only stocks, not futures or options, don't go long here in the last up wave!

    No shorting here, it's not now the moment! Yet!
    So: Minor 4 presumably ended at 1676!

    GS guy

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  22. KS,
    I though natty supposed to be doing well in Summer time.
    What happen?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Especially with the sweltering humidity in the northeast. Natty is still up on the year. It was pumped hard from 3.15 to 4.50 from Feb to April top so that energy needed to burn off. Looks like a lot of sideways ahead. Higher natty will help coals. Need for air conditioning increases demand and August dog days ahead. Aluminum smelters are huge natty users, also lots of natty needed for fertilizer production, all this is in the duldrums. Daily chart should have some sideways to sideways up through summer but nothing real exciting is going on there overall.

      Delete
    2. Basically, it's not a good player this Summer.
      As always, thank you for every piece of info you provide!

      Delete
  23. Lots of drama with SOX 470.70. If it fails, markets should sell off into the close. If SOX stays above 370.70 markets will likely move sideways with upward bias into the close. SOX now printing 471.57 hanging around in that 470.70 neighborhood deciding what to do.

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  24. My call would be 60-40 % in calling end of Minor 4 here.
    For day traders if getting long use wide stops.

    GS guy

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    Replies
    1. if 1699 is broken to the upside it's 100% that Minor 4 ended.

      GS guy

      Delete
  25. GS,
    You think "C" of minor 4 will not come. Can minor 4 ended without having to complete an ABC wave cycle?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  26. seems like it was version B scenario presented in a previous message:

    ''version B: minor 4 had 'A' wave at 1677 / 'B' wave at 1690-1692 / and 'C' wave at 1676 (but might fall more today, during the day to 1662 +/- levels).
    Under this version next is Minor 5.''

    Still have my doubts but I have to respect the market. If the dip was bought before completely maturing to the target (A=C) it's not my fault that some guys couldn't wait to buy...near the top of major 3 :) lol!

    Seems we have seen a Minor 4 truncated (wave C to be = to wave A should have been longer with 5-7 points). Somebody was in a real big hurry to buy the dip.

    GS guy

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  27. GS,
    Today spx closed @ 1691.65, does this confirmed that we are already in minor 5 still aiming for 1705 to come on either Monday/Tuesday.

    FOMC on Wednesday from Ben can actually send market to either direction meaning that Ben can start the market with major 4. What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Technically first level of confirmation of minor 5 is above 1695 and second (and full 100% confirmation) is 1699.

      If 1700 is taken believe me that it just might not stop at 1705, but somewhat higher than that.
      I don't think FOMC minutes will start Major 4 - yesterday Hilsenrath published an article about FED's position in the next FED minutes with fullassurance that they won't taper in July and they will maintain for years low rates.
      So, the chances of Major 4 starting after FOMC minutes exist but are quite low.

      There will be another type of event that will start Major 4 and my wild guess is that it won't be in the FED decisional area.

      I think that the whole market eyeballing at FED isn't looking the right direction.
      I see 2 potential risks : China and US political fights. We just might see in 1-2 weeks political declarations real provocative.

      The market is not looking in the right direction looking at FED - just my 2 cents opinion.

      After minute 1 of minor 5 (the jump saw today) on Monday/Tuesday we might see minute 2 of minor 5 down to 1683-1685 (in that area) and after FOMC minutes we will see minute 3 of major 5... after that we will see what will happen, how minutes 4 and 5 of minor 5 will develop and under what circumstances.

      GS guy

      Delete
  28. Gs, thanx for clear explanation. It looks like nobody it looking for market going down everyone is talking about 1800 and above, dip buying

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  29. The 8 MA spiked above the 34 MA in the last hour of trading on the SPX 30-minute chart so the bulls rule for the hours ahead and SPX 1700+ is back on the table.

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