UTIL is 472.78, a 472 handle, but still above the critical 468-469 bull-bear line in the sand, bullish. JJC is flat at 47.25, bullish. The 8 MA fell under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead but this may whipsaw today. The 8 and 34 MA's are at 1519-ish so as long as the SPX stays below 1519, the bears will stay in the game going forward. A move above 1519 will curl the 8 MA back upwards and send it higher to signal bullish fun again. The M&A activity this morning, with the American and U.S. Air airline deal, and the Warren Buffett HNZ deal, helped paint a rosier picture on today's action. The M&A deals will suck up some of the cash sloshing around in the system. The TRIN is 0.76 uber bullish so it is surprising to not see the SPX far higher.
The 10-year yield is 2.03% remaining above 2%. The equity bears will not gain traction lower unless they see the yield falling under 2%. The euro is 1.3331, a palindrome. The 1.3275 level is very strong support, the 1.33 serves as a psychological support level. As long as the euro stays above 1.3330, the equity markets will remain buoyant, if 1.3330 fails, additional broad market weakness will develop. Crude oil is 97.42. Folks are going to start marching with torches and pitchforks as they see the gasoline price sky rocket. RTH is weak today as the realization sets in that gasoline money is more important than sweater money when addressing the family budget.
Note Added 2/14/13 at 10:38 AM: The SPX is inching higher now moving towards 1520 and recovering, due to the low TRIN, now at 0.71. Bears do not have a chance with a TRIN at 0.71. Interestingly, JJC leaks a touch lower, and UTIL just printed a low at 472.06. The bears need to spank the SPX down right away, otherwise, the bulls will march things higher all day long.
Note Added 2/14/13 at 10:57 AM: UTIL has a 471 handle, isn't that interesting? The SPX is over 1520 trying to recover, and is printing positively for a few minutes. TRIN is 0.80, firmly bullish but the bears are trying to pull it higher. JJC 47.17. Euro 1.3341. It's all about the TRIN today.
Note Added 2/14/13 at 11:29 AM: UTIL just lost 471 and is printing a 470 handle now at 470.90. The SPX remains elevated; the bulls handily keeping the broad indexes buoyant with the 0.83 TRIN. JJC is 47.09. Euro is 1.3332 coming down to test the 1.3330 discussed above. The 10-year yield is 2.03%. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart.
Note Added 2/14/13 at 11:40 AM: Euro is 1.3328 dipping below 1.3330. This is quite a bull-bear struggle today. UTIL is 470.80, now only one single point away from a critical bull-bear line in the sand at 469.78 that will create broad market weakness. TRIN 0.81. RUT is 922 so the bulls have small caps and the TRIN on their side today.
Note Added 2/14/13 at 2:19 PM: UTIL came down to fall through 469.78 but recovered. The TRIN is 0.84 so the bears got nothing. Note that during the selling a short while ago, the TRIN moved up to 0.98 (helping bears) but collapsed. JJC is 47.18. Euro 1.3340. VIX is 12.70 showing no life today helping the bulls. The SPX is printing 1522 which would serve as a right shoulder for an H&S. The 8 MA moved back above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart at 1 PM signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead, taking this back from the bears and creating today's buoyancy. Watch to see if the bears can turn it back down into the closing bell. The beat goes on today. Markets are in a sideways malaise. The 10-year yield is 2.00%.
Note Added 2/14/13 at 2:44 PM: Whoa, huge TRIN spike to 0.95. Then back down to 0.79 a few minutes later. Shaky markets. Watch your wallet.
KS, 10 year bond finally hitting negative divergence. Maybe time to go sub 2 and mr. Market to take a breather.
ReplyDeleteYep, that is what the TNX says, but it may be short-lived, markets are very jumpy and erratic. The euro is most important, if euro moves down so do markets, euro up means up markets. Euro is now at 1.3344.
ReplyDeleteno offense but you've been CYAing with talk of divergence since Nov. 120 points later and still all is bullish, but
ReplyDeletelots of cyaing so when it hits the crapper you can still say Told You So. lot of smart talk about all kinds of
stuff but no one knows what they're talking. or you pad it with talk about how the exact opposite is equally
possible. how bout picking a position and staying with it. talk, talk, talk.
Anon, some homework will help you out, the Positions and Picks page constantly shows the ongoing status. Keybot the Quant controls the bulk of the port and it is long since the last day of 2012. You are correct generally for the more speculative calls recently but the Sept-Oct top was identified, then the mid-November bottom. So the Late December-January-February action is multiple weeks now and the thrust is due to the political and central banker thrust. Market tops are typically always rolling tops as they form so they take several weeks. Be patient, above all, talk from a position of knowledge rather than stupidity. Intelligent questions are welcomed. No need to do any CYA since if the markets continue up, the trades have to be pulled off resulting in losses that would be posted on the Positions page. Take some time to read and study the site. Some trades you win, some you lose, its all good. Markets are at what appears to be an important inflection point right now. Remember, positions move through many time frames so you have to identify what time frame you are targeting and correlate that to the market call. In the most general context, which seems to be what you are probably looking for, follow Keybot in the left margin if you want a constant read on the markets, it does not get any easier than that. If you seek risk and speculation, you can follow the top and bottom calls, and divergences, on this site more closely.
Delete@ Anon:
DeleteKS has the best (as technical accuracy) trading site i've ever seen. What's your problem anyway?
V.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteFirst, you deserve a name, so why not adopt one?
Second, picking a position and staying with it is what Keybot is about. And it's been pretty good. This side of the neighborhood is about speculation, and it's been pretty good about that.
Alex
DJ utilities ticking down to 471.66 looks in a bearish mood 30 min chart even though SPX ticking higher. Something not so bullish all.
ReplyDeleteYep, UTIL is very interesting today, printing a LOD at 470.72, right now at the lows, within one point of the bull-bear line. So utes can trigger some serious market weakness if UTIL loses one more point.
ReplyDeleteUTIL failed 469.78 but recovered. The close may be interesting today.
ReplyDeleteIn the case of this ANON; don't listen or even respond to the trolls KS, they always try to elicit a response. No need to even acknowledge... You are too kind. People like that don't understand what it takes to be a profitable trader like you, and they have probably lost more than they can account for and now try to take it out on you, who is a honest hard working objective trader (albeit a slight bearish undertone I think!? or!? -I mean we're all human, so we all have our preferences).
ReplyDeleteBecoming a profitable trader and staying profitable is much harder than most people think. It took me in fact 2 yrs... The first 2 years I had negative account balances. Not until then did it start to really click. The best thing I've learned: patience is fortune. Trading is a waiting game, a waiting for the right moment to enter the trade. Doesn't matter if you hit the exact rock bottom to go long or exact top to sell or go short, it's all about being on the right side of the trade.
The market will teach you to be patient and humble. In the end the market is always right! KS, and we all here, are simply trying to interpret it's price pattern in time and space. Neither KS, nor anybody here, has ever said that what they see in the charts is the ultimate truth. It's an interpretation of what we all think is happening. Ultimately the market will decide if we're right or wrong. However, there are many proven patterns that often work out (nothing is fool proof or we'll all be using those methods and all be rich!).
Now let's get back to trading and make some coin!
Arnie
Deletei have an account w fidelity that it takes three trading days for cash available to trade. so i have to wait for cash become available and feel i miss the right time to enter a trade. what are the names of reliable trading firms and what is their minimums for day trader/ margin trader?
thank you if you could help.
i use trademonster; $2K account minimum. $25K mim needed to be able to daytrade(that's a SEC rule, not theirs and goes for each trading firm). TM, with less than $25K allows 3 day trades per 5 day rolling average. If more, you're freeriding and your assets will be frozen for 90 days (SEC rule). However, TM has a 3x leverage so with an account of $2K you have $6K per your disposal daily (if you do those 3 day trades). Their's no 3 day waiting period or anything; just buy and sell what you want when you want as long as you adhere to the rules dictated by your level of account funding!
Delete