Friday, February 15, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 2/15/13; Industrial Production; Consumer Sentiment

CCL's floating toilet finally docks and passengers sprint down the gangway to the showers. A meteor hits Russia injuring over 400 people; the news is stranger by the day. The planet remains in the window of strong solar activity as well as meteor activity. There was drama yesterday in the utilities sector. UTIL failed the 469.78 level creating market weakness but it recovered. UTIL begins today at 471.02.  Watch UTIL 469.78 and 468.05.  Failures will cause broad market down legs. Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long for about seven weeks. Despite the market optimism, the markets are far closer to the edge than most traders realize, hence, you must stay protected and guarded. If UTIL loses only three measly points (dropping under 468.05) and the SPX drops under 1514, Keybot will likely flip short. Copper remains important as well. Watch JJC 46.50 which would create serious weakness in the broad indexes.

Crude oil, the euro and the SPX are all moving coincidentally. Crude oil has been drifting lower for a few days off its recent top, likewise the euro, but the SPX keeps moving higher. OpEx is today so higher volumes may play a stronger role at the start and at the end of the day. Empire State Manufacturing Index is 8:30 AM. TIC data is 9 AM which shows foreign investment.  Industrial Production is 9:15 AM. Consumer Sentiment will create a market pivot point at 9:55 AM. Fed's Pianalto speaks at 9:50 AM. E-commerce Retail Sales are 10 AM. Markets tend to be buoyant into a holiday weekend. Markets are closed on Monday in Observance of President's Day.

For the SPX starting at 1521, the bulls need to push through 1523 to create an upside acceleration. The bears need to push under 1514 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1515-1522 is sideways action. Watch to see if the 8 MA moves back under the 34 MA, or not, on the SPX 30-minute chart. The S&P futures are down 2. Watch the utilities closely today and interestingly  the utes are lagging in European trading today. The euro is under the 1.3330 level that we were watching yesterday. The 10-year is under the 2% level.

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