Tuesday, February 19, 2013

VIX Volatility Weekly and Daily Charts Falling Wedges Oversold Positive Divergence


Volatility has finally paid the price this year since the charts are now aligned for a recovery. A minor beating or two may still occur but for general purposes, the VIX should bounce strongly from the blue circle in the days, or week or so, ahead.  The indicators on the weekly and daily charts, across the board, are positively diverged (blue lines) wanting to see a launch occur. The flaling wedge and oversold stochastics also want to provide volatility some bullish oomph. Up volatility means down markets.

On the daily chart, note how the bottom in January was identified with the falling wedge and positive divergence but the RSI adn MACD line said they need another lower price after a mini-bounce occurs. The mini bounce took the VIX to 14.6 where it fell on its sword to satisfy the RSI and MACD line. Price has matched the prior low so this kicks in the new positive divergence and sets up the launch pad with the blue circle. This bottom in the VIX has strong potential to hold for weeks and months. The weekly chart shows the importance of the 200-week MA so a logical upside target is 22. Projection is for volatility to launch upwards any day forward with the VIX targeting 22. Charts can be reassessed after the bounce occurs. Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, identifies VIX 16.75 as a bull-bear line in the sand. Above 16.75 and the markets are in serious trouble. Bulls are not worried if the VIX stays under 16.75. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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