Thursday, February 21, 2013

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant turns bearish today after two months on the long side. The algo flipped short at SPX 1498. The VIX 15.74 is playing a key role today. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw move. The bulls are fighting back into the closing bell today.  The SPX is at 1506.

More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

7 comments:

  1. Thank you Keystone for all your hard work. I just wanted to express my gratitude to you. I don't make much money and try to invest what little I have. This free blog really helps out poor people like me.

    Sid

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  2. That is good to here, pay close attention to your capital then and do not take too much risk until the nest egg grows then you can take more risk. This site is educational to try and provide insight into markets that new traders especially do not understand. The playing field will never be level concerning novice traders versus professionals but perhaps the gap can close a little for the little guy and gal so they can bite back.

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  3. KS, based on your 80/20 rule, do you expect to see PBR at 14.80 before it starts to launch? New low today is 15.17 Also, thanks for all your great work!
    Looks like 1498 support held today, will it be tested again tomorrow at opening bell?
    What number should I look at for JJC? It's closed at 44.83
    Thanks again! I am learning so much from you.

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  4. A, very observant on PBR. It closed at 15.19 which still keeps the 15.20 in play to hold, since it is one measly penny, but a close lower will light the way to 14.80. So these levels can be used as a wide scale-in to build the position if that is what you want to do. The charts will likely be posted for PBR but the way it looks now it would not be surprising to see it launch tomorrow from the 15.19. Copper has collapsed and is firmly in the bear camp so it is not as applicable to market movement anymore, it is doing continually baseline market damage as it stays bearish. Instead, watch VIX 15.74 as the key metric. Also GTX 4927. Also RTH 45.45 and RTH may drop since JWN is taking the pipe after earnings this evening.

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  5. KS, forgot to ask you...how low do you expect gold and Ag to drop or is it basing now? Both GDX and GDXJ show new low. Thx!

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  6. KS, do you expect a bounce tomorrow since the NYMO is below the -40 level? Thanks for your play by play daily action. Arnie or any of you EWT experts, is this wave 4 down which means wave 5 will take SPX to 1550+ or has the SPX completed an ABC corrective rally from the November lows which means a new larger degree 5-wave down is imminent?

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  7. Yes, that NYMO spike down is something to watch. On the other hand the NYSI weekly has clearly topped and rolled over and has barely started its decline, so who knows, we might get a double-top to SPX 1530 or some fibo of the decline before we resume the downturn. The VIX isn't that high but it did close above the Bollinger band, which often indicates a bit of panic.
    Mixed signals, to be sure. Treacherous markets. I'd like to see a drop in the VIX and a pop back up in the NYMO before shorting the SPX again... as always, KS, your analysis is most welcome, you have a track record that is public and well-explained--thank you!

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