Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 2/12/13; State of the Union this Evening

KO beat on bottom line missed on the top line and is down pre-market. GT is down pre-market, not good from the rubber (a building block) perspective. Goodyear cut 2013 forecasts citing Europe but in general, less rubber means less tires, less vehicles, less auto sales, less construction. VAL misses which indicates less need for paints and pigments, the building blocks of a recovery. MAS blew out earnings to the upside last evening so this helps the housing recovery story and KORS blew out this morning helping the retail story. A continued mix bag.  Futures are buoyant choosing to follow the good news. Copper was down this morning but recovered and is firmly green. Ditto for the euro and European markets. The euro is well over 1.34 at 1.3444.  The 10-year yield is up to 1.98%. The volume is shameful Friday and yesterday, at low levels like Christmas holiday trading; markets float upwards on fumes and vapors.

Markets should be topping in the coming days. There are three key parameters for today; UTIL 469.78, UTIL 468.13 and JJC 46.43. All three are bullish creating a lift to the broad indexes. The bears need at least one to fail to usher in selling and if two fail, the market drop will accelerate and Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. But the party lives on for now and as long as the bulls keep all three elevated, the wine is flowing like water.  For the SPX today at 1517, the bulls only need one point higher, to punch through 1518 and the 1520's will print in quick order.   The bears need to push under 1514 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1515-1517 is sideways. Markets may stumble sideways ahead of the president's speech this evening.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index shows an increase in business optimism and some interest in hiring but there is no pricing power in the marketplace, and overall index levels remain low. Business remains in a malaise. The Fed's George speaks at 11:30 AM.  The 3-Year Note Auction is at 1 PM. Treasury Budget is 2 PM. Fed's Plosser speaks at 7:30 PM. President Obama's State of the Union speech is this evening followed by Rubio and Paul for responses.  In years past, markets are typically buoyant following the speech especially the companies in industries that are mentioned favorably during the speech. So, take notes, and watch those sectors and stocks tomorrow. During OpEx week, there is usually a Tuesday low that leads to a Wednesday high. Retail Sales are on tap for tomorrow morning, a key event for the week.  Earnings and political talk are front and center as well over the next day. Watch your wallet.