Keystone's Midday Market Action 10/23/12; iPad Mini

The euro is 1.2965 under the psychological 1.3000 level. Both RTH and GTX joined the bear camp.  The COMPQ is down -1.0% while the SPX is down -1.3% so tech is not leading lower. This will help the bulls slow the market down move.  VIX is printing at the highs at 18.55. The bears are crusing now with utes, semi's, retail, copper and commodities, as well as volatility all in the bear camp. We watched them all change their stripes over the last week or so. The SPX fell thru 1422 so this accelerated the downside.  Price is now playing in the important 1403-1419 support zone. SPX S/R is 1419, 1416, 1413, 1409, 1406, 1404, 1403.78 (20-week MA), 1403 and 1399.  Keep watching RTH 44.45 and GTX 4898. Markets may idle until the iPad Mini announcement at 1 PM. That provides time for a healthy noon meal time, which may serve as the Last Supper.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 11:10 AM:  Keystone's SPX:VIX Ratio Indicator is in play now printing at 72.95.  Reference the Turn Signal page on this site. A drop thru 68 should be in concert with a strong leg lower for markets so keep an eye on it. Also watch the SPX 150-day MA slope, a Cyclical indicator. See if it flattens and rolls over indicating trouble for the weeks and months ahead. UPS is up 3% today so the 20-week MA is not yet under the 50-week MA which would trigger a Cyclical Bear market signal. UTIL is printing 476.24 about 11 points above the 50-week MA at 465.09 which represents a trap-door for the broad indexes. The RTH is under 44.45 and GTX under 4898 so the markets will remain weak. AAPL is down 1.5% today.  The Nasdaq is down -1.1% while the SPX is down -1.5% so tech continues to not lead lower. This provides hope for the market bulls. The importance of the iPad Mini announcement is now obvious.  If Apple lays an egg, it will take the Nasdaq lower and usher in strong market pain. If the iPad Mini release goes great, further Apple buoyancy will help the bulls recover. The announcement is now only about one and one-half hours away.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 12:55 PM:  The SPX has recovered off the bottom now moving sideways across the 1409-1416 S/R range.  Look at how price bounced directly off the 1409 support an hour ago, watch 1409 and the LOD today at 1407.56.  AAPL is down 5.58 points to 628.45.  Use this as a marker to compare price after the announcement. The Nasdaq has recovered off the lows which is greatly helping the broad indexes float upwards. AAPL can change this, or not, in the time ahead with the iPad Mini release.  The VIX is now at 18.57 after printing a HOD at 19.65. Materials and energy sectors are hit the hardest today. RTH is under 44.45 but now only seven cents under at 44.38; this will tell you if a recovery rally is on tap for the broad indexes, or not.  Note that the SPX is now in the range where the ECB announced their bond-buying program in early September. We are now under where the Fed announced QE3 on 9/13/12. Are traders losing complete confidence in Chairman Bernanke and his quantitative easing schemes?

Note Added 10/23/12 at 1:11 PM:  The 2-year auction was well received.  The SPX is now testing the 1416 resistance. The euro is 1.2979. The RTH is 44.35--this is important, one dime on the bear side.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 1:18 PM:  The euro LOD is 1.2952 so watch this number closely, bears need to drop under and bulls need to stay above.  The drama right now is with RTH printing 44.37 teasing the 44.45 area.  AAPL is down 2.22 to 631.81. Apple is now ten bucks off the lows which obviously helped the markets recover mid-day.  The iPad Mini unvealing is ongoing right now, news is imminent.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 1:34 PM:  AAPL teases with some new iMac Mini news, lighter and with more screen pixels.  The iPad Mini news is imminent.  AAPL is down two bucks to 631.54.  Check that, down 3 now to 630.83. RTH is 44.40. The SPX 1416 resistance held, for now.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 1:46 PM:  The iPad announcement appears to have begun but nothing firm yet.  AAPL is now down 4.38 to 629.65. The euro is at 1.2968.  RTH is at 44.33 starting to leak a little.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 2:03 PM:  AAPL iPad Mini is 7.9" and comes in black and white but no news on a price point yet.  AAPL is down 4.42 to 629.61.  RTH is printing 44.45, this will decide if the markets will recover into the close.  The SPX is above the 1416 R so price will want to test 1419 R next. Steady as she goes...waiting to see what the iPad Mini is priced at.  RTH now at 44.44..... high drama occurring.......

Note Added 10/23/12 at 2:08 PM:  The iPad Mini is priced at $329.  Hmmmmm.  This price seems too high.  With mini tablets now priced at $200 this is quite a premium to pay in this economic environment for regular folks.  The higher price may cut into more of the regular iPad sales as well.  AAPL drops like a stone so the price for the iPad is not well received. AAPL is now down over ten bucks to 623.97.  Looks like Apple laid an egg. RTH is 44.45.  SPX is at 1415.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 2:13 PM:  AAPL collapses, now at 618.  RTH is 44.39. The VIX moving back up towards 19.  The SPX falls under 1413, now at 1412.  When there are other mini tablets on the market at $200, and this price will drop for the holiday's, with some tablets at perhaps only $100, are you going to shell out $330 for the same thing? Seems like folks would opt for the competitors' tablets due to cost, while at the same time, with a regular iPad at $300 or $400, why not buy a regular iPad instead of a Mini for $330. The iPad Mini price appears too high. It is difficult to design a product for all needs, sometimes you end up with a product that satisfies none of them. A day or two will be needed to allow the smoke to clear. The euro remains frozen at 1.2968 like a deer in the headlights, it does not know which way to turn this afternoon.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 2:25 PM:  RTH 44.44, this is psycho today.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 2:42 PM:  RTH is 44.49, back above the 44.45 level, rejoining the bull camp, and the broad indexes should receive upside lift. The SPX is testing 1416 resistance now.  If RTH stays above 44.45, the SPX will move up to test 1419 and perhaps 1422.  If RTH drops back below 44.45, the broad indexes will sell off into the close.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 3:01 PM:  RTH 44.49.  SPX 1419.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 3:35 PM:  RTH drops back under 44.45, by a hair, now printing 44.43. The broad indexes should leak lower into the close. The SPX is at 1415. AAPL is 615. The euro is 1.2975.

Note Added 10/23/12 at 3:41 PM:  RTH is at 44.39 liking the bear camp more and more each passing minute. SPX is 1412.95.