Sunday, October 14, 2012

CPC Put/Call and SPX Daily Charts


We have watched the CPC put/call over the last few weeks as it identified a market top because of trader complacency.  Complacency and a relaxed market move, where traders have no fear of a market pull back at all, occurs at sub 0.75, and of course, the opposite happens, markets will sell off. Once the CPC moves above 1.20 that indicates trader panic and is the best time to start bringing on long plays. The markets are not worth buying on the long side until CPC moves above 1.20. The blue rectangles show a possible fractal correlation in play now, and if the current path proceeds similarly, the market selling is only about halfway finished and will target the 1360-1380 area.

Note the 20 and 50-day MA crosses that point the way forward.  The cross occurs for CPC in early July, same with the SPX and this action indicated bullish fun ahead and a rally that lasted three more months.  On Friday, for the CPC, the 20 crossed above the 50-day MA, a significant development hinting at further upside for CPC, which means, further market downside. The 20 MA has not yet crossed down thru the 50 MA for the SPX so that is something to monitor closely.  The indicators for the SPX are sloping negatively (red lines), weak and bleak, indicating that the SPX wants to see lower prices even if a bounce occurs early this week.  Likewise, the CPC indicators are long and strong (green lines) wanting to see higher prices for CPC, which should tag the 1.20 at some point, at which time you can become bullish on the markets once again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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