The East Coast certainly received the trick rather than the treat this week. Trading resumes today in the U.S. after the two-day lull. Light volume is expected so this may create, along with elevated volatility, large price swings today. Today is EOM so the monthly charts receive a new data point. The euro is at 1.30 far higher than the 1.29 level when the SPX last traded. The higher euro should send copper, commodiites, gold and equities higher, and that is ocurring. The S&P futures are up 10, Dow Industrials up 67 and Nasdaq up 17. Tech is not leading the broad markets higher, however. Reference the parameters previously listed to gauge the action today. The euro moving up is bullish. A market bounce today will likely send the 8 MA up thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart indicating bullish hours and days ahead, so watch that closely. If the futures remain elevated, watch RTH 44.47 and GTX 4895 to gauge the strength of the rally. If the SPX takes out 1417, and it holds, it will slice thru 1419 and likely test 1424 as the day begins.
Arcelor Mittal, a large global steel producer, misses on earnings, cuts the divvy and lowers guidance. Clairant (chemiclas) takes the pipe today. The pattern of weak news and guidance for the key global economic building blocks continues. If chemicals (DD and DOW), rubber and steel are weak, the economic prospects ahead are not inspiring. The markets are separate from the economy, however, and the bulls are running in the early going today. The 10-year treasury yield is 1.75%.
Economic data and earnings releases are a mess this week. Simply roll with the flow. The important Consumer Confidence number is to be released tomorrow. If it is released at 10 AM, that would be in concert with the ISM Manufacturing Index and create a Grand Daddy of market pivot points at 10 AM EST tomorrow. Chicago PMI is at 9:45 AM fifteen minutes after the opening bell today. Oil Inventories are 10:30 AM. Farm prices are 3 PM so the ag sector is worth watching today.
Note Added 10/31/12 at 5:56 AM EST: The euro is over 1.30. The 10-year yield is over 1.76%. Euro up = dollar down = copper up = gold up = commodities up = equities up = Treasury prices down yields up. S&P futures are up 0.65% and Nasdaq is up 0.54% so tech is not leading the upside which may serve to place a lid on the projected rally move today.
You're saying light volumes. Everything I've read so far says heavy volumes. http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/30/investing/sandy-stocks/index.html?iid=EL
ReplyDeleteThis article talks about it being first of the month, last of the quarter for some, and fund managers needing to square up. Plus, the market had been closed for today's. I'm no expert. I'm just saying.... which is it? Light volumes or surge in volumes?
Big surge at the open, the open was set up that way. Volume should be light all day. The run rate right now is projecting a heavy volume day of 30% over average trading, this is due to the heavy buy bias at the open. That should come down as the day moves along. Anything goes, however, a better fix will be known by noon.
DeleteWelcome back, KS. Hope the Laurel Highlands stood its ground against Sandy.
ReplyDeleteHey Weaver, yep, it has been raining since Sunday, high winds but no damage, power was out yesterday for a while, one computer may be on its last legs but all in all no biggie.
Delete