UTIL jumps to 477. Watch the 50-day MA at 477.30, this will decide if the utilities sector wants to head higher, or not. VIX is lower to start the day which makes the bulls happy. Thus, bears got nothing without either the UTIL 472 or VIX 17.25 bull-bear lines cooperating. Tech is leading the broad markets on the upside so this creates market buoyancy. AAPL is up a couple bucks. The euro is 1.2895 breaking under 1.29 over the last half hour. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart, bearish. The 20-day MA is 1447.61. Markets are in their status quo mode to start the day. Keystone took profits on INVE exiting the trade. INVE remains attractive moving forward, will look to reenter at some point.
Note Added 10/3/12 at 10:10 AM: VIX is positive. SPX is moving thru 1444 and 1447 S/R. Keystone added more AMD; price is at a tricky juncture now at 3.20. Any lower and it will want to move to 2.75-2.85. So AMD should bounce from here, or, if not, it will have to wait and bounce from the lower range.
Note Added 10/3/12 at 10:20 AM: VIX is negative. This is one of those dog's chasing their tails kind of day already, round and round and you end up where you started from. SPX S/R is 1460, 1457, 1453, 1447.91 (10-day MA), 1447.78 (20-day MA), 1447, 1444, 1441 and 1440. Price is poking up thru the 1447-1447.91 gauntlet so it will have its sights on 1453. Tech is leading the broad indexes higher today, that is creating the market buoyancy. UTIL is moving towards 478. Bulls have the slight edge as the day gets underway. A sideways malaise.
Note Added 10/3/12 at 11:55 AM: Bulls keep floating the indexes higher. The SPX moved thru the 1447.00-1447.91 gauntlet to now test 1453. The 1457 R would be next if the bulls push thru 1453. Keystone took profits on UWM which only amount to a hotdog and a coke, and perhaps a tip for the hatcheck girl. The TIC machine just tagged +1000 so that was a good time to exit the UWM long play and further ponder these fickle markets.
Note Added 10/3/12 at 12:57 PM: SPX punched thru 1453 so 1457 is the next target. Note that 1453 is where Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side the other day and a whipsaw has not occurred. Tech continues to lead higher although AAPL is flatish. The 8 MA moved up thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart so the bulls are in control for the hours and days ahead. UTIL is above 472 and VIX below 17.25 so the bulls rule today. The odd market behavior continues. The erroneous KFT trades in the markets this morning are of concern since the bad trades occurred in eight different exchanges. Markets are idling ahead of the ECB, FOMC Minutes and Jobs Report that all occur over the next 44 hours. Keystone bot more ZSL. Tickers of interest right now that all look very attractive for potential trades include AMD, ZSL, UVXY and VXX, which Keystone is in all four of those, and also HPQ (it is receiving a beating today), CRR and MCP which Keystone is not in right now. As always, all are very dangerous speculative trades.
Note Added 10/3/12 at 2:29 PM: Oil has an 88 handle receiving a four-buck slap down today. Markets are drifting lower but AAPL is positive and tech continues to lead the upside. VIX has recovered to the flat line today but far from 17.25. UTIL is at 478 far above 472. So the bulls continue to control these two elements. The Dow Industrials turn negative. Note the -1200 TICK at 1:40 PM EST that marked the SPX 1448.50 low, and over the last few minutes, a new lower low at 1448.00, but the TICK came down to only -950 this time. The SPX is moving thru 1440-1455 for the last four days, a sideways malaise.
Note Added 10/3/12 at 3:02 PM: The SPX 20-day MA is at 1447.75. Price is now printing 1447.89. The melodrama continues.
KS, Thanks for those details re AMD. Great stuff.
ReplyDeleteThey just tried to shake people out with that jam down and up...think they are taking this down for one more dip before liftoff.
ReplyDeleteyou could be right; possibly a large 4th wave correction is in the making with ~1452 as a d-wave, then an e-wave down to ~1440ish (all levels that touch the huge symmetrical triangle that has formed of the 1400 low and 1474 high)
DeleteJust smells like they're not going to like something in the minutes at 2 pm. We'll see
ReplyDeleteAAPL wants 645
ReplyDeleteH&S on S&P 30 min wants 1420
oil is saying downward bias moving forward
Gold doesn't want to go over 1780 as I think it wants to form a handle on the daily cup pattern that has formed, before launching higher
All this to say my "feeling" is we have a little more downside maybe to the 1420-1425 SPX area, then a bounce, then a trend lower at least into early Nov.
Thanks KS for all the great posts, and the polite and informative responses to everyone's posts and questions.
that's entirely possible too. AAPL just did a clean 5-wave down from it's 705 high. that stronly indicates 705 was it, and we now experience wave 2 up to 680-690 area. maybe even gap fill from sept 24 at 700. that would be aserious retrace, but possible. especially considering how strong the stock has been.
DeleteAs crazy as it sounds, I see the MACD and stochastics as supporting an extended move higher here as the SPX holds to the advancing 20-day MA. NYMO and the SPX:VIX are both far from their highs, I think the point to go short is still ahead, probably 1480 SPX. The jittery sell-offs seem designed to pull in shorts who then get creamed and have to sell on the next advance. We may well get a serious dip here but it feels like there's too many traders waiting to pull the short trigger here--as we know, this pup won't roll over until the shorts have been decimated and nobody dares even trying to short this mess of a market.
ReplyDeleteJust my 3 cents on a very interesting market....
Ponder fickle markets?? It's all for Obama today, throw your tech a out the window. wake up
ReplyDeleteInteresting comments all. Lots of sideways drama. The ECB decision in the morning likely carries lots more weight than the debates this evening. The FOMC Minutes are 2 PM tomorrow afternoon. Then the Jobs Report Friday morning. The 20-day MA at 1448 will continue to play a key role today.
ReplyDeleteUTIL 479 makes a strong bull case, the bears need to reverse this asap. The UTIL level for next week is 481, so if the bulls move up towards 481 that would hint that the markets will likely be bullish into and thru much of next week. The UTIL chart is at the exact point now, where this consolidation zone ends for a bear flag, and price will drop in earnest, or, price continues upwards negating the bear flag. Look at the daily chart for UTIL. First leg was 500 to 465, 35 points, if the collapse is from here, 480, that targets 415-ish. The bulls are flexing their muscles but that does not say much since if AAPL decides to go red, it will take the entire markets down. The action will heat up this afternoon, tomorrow and Friday. A clear H&S pattern is forming for Apple on the daily chart. Head at 705, neck line at 660-ish would target 615-ish.
8 up thru the 34 on 30 minute
ReplyDeleteon the hour chart, 34 has TURNED UP with 8 boucing off it
Pete
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI find it a bit odd that you would be in UVXY, VIX with the Keybot being long. If keybot is right being a bull, you are betting against the trend with UVXY, VIX. Am i missing something? Tks in advance.
Testy, no, you are exactly correct. Keystone's trades are always listed on the Positions and Picks page so there are several trades open right now that are all short trades. The short plays serve as a hedge against Keybot (if Keybot is long) since the algo is not designed to catch exact market tops and bottoms. The trades on Keystone's site here are also the more specualtive trades based on technical analysis, chart patterns, divergences, etc... So each trade here has an individual circumstance, typically a negative or positive divergence profile, which makes it attractive.
ReplyDeleteThink of it all as three dimensional chess, multiple trades operating in multiple time frames and both long and short positions, it helps to reduce overall risk. As a trader you want to get away from the black and white, only long, or only short, thinking, a one-way bet either way. That will always lead to trouble. So, if you like the markets long overall, think of it in terms that you should have about 70% of your trades long, but perhaps hold about 30% of trades on the short side. Conversely, if you think the markets are best played from the short side moving forward, perhaps target a balance of between 60 and 80% short positions with 20 to 40% long positions. Keybot continuously provides the simople long and short status of markets but trading always involves lots more under the surface, especially to keep risk low as possible.
I wonder what the price of oil (down over 4-percent today) is trying to tell us about stocks? There's usually a predictive relationship, isn't there KS?
ReplyDeleteYep, oil is in a struggle now where the slowing global demand, especially China is sending price lower, but the Middle East conflict is acting as a counterweight pulling it higher.
DeleteUsing the 80/20 rule the 87.70-88.25 area is an interesting area to look at for a potential long in WTIC, if it comes down.
looks like AMD wants to test the 2.80 area. I am a buyer at that level if all stars align.
ReplyDeleteSPX keeps respecting the upper symmetrical triangle trend line formed of the 1474 high to the cent almost with it's lower intra day highs by the day, as well as respecting the lower trendline formed of the 1400 area (pre-ECB pump) level, by higher intra day lows by the day.
The center line of that triangle is 1448... sounds familiar??? yes you guessed it; the 20d SMA that KS has pointed out many times, right at 1447.91...
AAPL is toast in the long run IMHO, but hey, I've been wrong before... ;-) Short term AAPL is up, longer term: down IMHO
Arnie, yep, the 1447-1448 is very important.
ReplyDeleteAMD action will be intereting, the HPQ news was unfortunate but we will see if it bases today.