The Spain bailout rumor supplies a strong pump to the markets. The euro pushes higher, now at 129.47, taking commodities and equities along for the ride. UTIL is over 475. VIX is under 16. The COMPQ is leading the broad market higher, bullish. Oil turns green now at 92.68. The SPX is testing that upper trend line highlighted on the 30-minute chart this morning at 1451-1452. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart, bullish. INVE is feeling some love today.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 9:42 AM: COMPQ is up +0.31% and SPX is up +0.28%, now moving up at about the same rate. COMPQ will dictate if the upside has any oomph, or, if it is a repeat of yesterday where tech starts to lag which will act as a weight on the markets. AAPL is up slightly. If COMPQ leads higher the bulls will be happy today. The 20-day MA is 1445.66. The SPX was rejected on its first attempt at the 1451-1452 trend line resistance printing a HOD thus far at 1451.52. Gold continues its fight for the 1780's.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 11:21 AM: The SPX is printing 1445.40 and the 20-day MA is 1445.50 so you can easily keep track of who is winning simply using this metric. COMPQ is leading strongly to the upside as compared to s SPX so this is a feather in the bulls cap today and should help to elevate markets. Likewise, the 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart, bullish.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 11:50 AM: UTIL is at 473.76 dropping perilously close to the 472.06 which will accelerate broad market selling. The VIX is at 16.38, the highs for the day, nearing the 17.25 level that will accelerate market selling. The SPX is dropping under the important 1441 level for today which shouild accelerate the downside. Bulls will be in big trouble if UTIL or VIX fail with the SPX under 1441, that may cause Keybot the Quant to flip short. The tension mounts. The 8 MA is about to stab down thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart. Tech is not leading the downside so this hints that the downside would not have a lot of oomph.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 12:06 PM: The 8 MA stabbed down thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart indicating market bearishness for the hours and days ahead. The euro is holding up today at 129.42. Tech does not lead lower so the markets may travel in a sideways malaise from here.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 1:57 PM: Status quo. Whoa, what was that. The SPX just dropped from 1443 to 1440 and back up to 1442 in only four quick minutes. Market shenanigans. Watch your wallet. Keystone took profits on the RIMM trade exiting the trade completely. RIMM price is at resistance where it may jump the gap for an island reversal on the daily chart, but, no use in passsing up profits. The trade can always be reentered. RIMM is expected to continue moving up. Keystone added move AMD.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 2:08 PM: Note the low -1200 and -1000 TICK's at 11:30 AM and 2 PM, respectively, identifying exactly the two intraday bottoms so far for the broad markets. The SPX has a descending triangle vibe on the 5-minute chart with the baselline at 1441. See if 1441 holds, or not.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 2:35 PM: Note the -1000 TICK a few minutes ago. Keystone added more UWM. UTIL and VIX remain in the bull camp all day. Look at the COMPQ and SPX now both down the same amount at -0.29%, this is a big change today since tech was leading the broad markets to the upside--until now. If COMPQ starts to lead lower you will notice the markets deteriorating. For now, the bulls are hanging on. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart, bearish. Price is dropping under the 1441 baseline of the descending triangle on the 5-minute chart. If the bears want to push it over the hill, now is the time.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 3:40 PM: The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA, bearish, but UTIL 472.06 and VIX 17.25 held today in the bull camp, and tech never led the downside today (AAPL is up), thus, a standoff, with the SPX sideways thru 1440-1444 for the last four hours. The 20-day MA is 1445.39, use that as a gauge as to who takes home the flag today, bulls or bears. The current print is 1443.36 so the bears are holding the flag with fifteen minutes remaining. Trannies remain weak. The euro held up today now printing 129.18 no where near the 128.75 and 128.30 danger levels so this was another factor hinting that the downside would not have oomph.
Note Added 10/2/12 at 4:05 PM: Markets close off the lows. The SPX closes at 1445.75, twenty-four pennies above the 20-day MA so the bulls receive a late day feather for their caps. The metrics mentioned in the previous paragraph remained in place thru the close. UTIL 472.06 and VIX 17.25 are running the show. Keystone added more CEP at the close (thinly traded dangerous speculative stock).
it's a rough tumble battle for 1780 and it very nimble with a nice ATR (average true range). All the best all today I'm logging out early today.
ReplyDeleteKS, I have been following your blog for a few months now. Thank you for posting amazing info & details. With respect to your "bot" postings, can you specify if those are day trades only? e.g. AMD;MRVL;BBY;PAY;CRR at the levels you posted last week?
ReplyDeleteRich, the entire portfolio is traded two ways. First, Keystone's algo, Keybot the Quant, automatically takes care of 65% of the port, and that is a straight long or short position using an ETF. The algo is designed to take the smoothest path thru the trading year as possible, keeping risk low, while maintaining an attractive return. Status is always shown in the left margin. Keybot is not designed to catch exact tops or bottoms, it simply motors along doing its own thing. If you ever are curious how to judge the markets on any given day, Keybot's position is the answer, it represents the underlying market trend, bullish or bearish.
ReplyDeleteFor the Keystone Speculator site here, this is all the high risk, speculative, typically very dangerous trades and shorter term trading, sometimes scalping and day trading, that accounts for 35% of the port. Keybot handles 65% since robots are smarter than humans and the quant trades without emotion.
But any individual tickers discussed, any charts posted here, all the information here, is only focused on the short-term trading. So the 'Positions and Picks page' shows a lot of trading ideas that simmer day after day and serves as a shopping list for trades. Most of those tickers listed will never be played. The short term trade durations are typically entered and the profit usually dictates the exit, if it jumps real fast, then it may turn out to be a day trade, if it languishes, Keystone will add to it over time and allow it to work out. Like the retail shorts, and volatilty longs, which are ongoing positions, where Keystone has now grown a beard to rival Rip van Winkle waiting for those to work out.
If a trade turns out to go the wrong way, Keystone will take the loss and move on, an dit is posted in the running tally on the Positions and Picks page. The ongong positions are listed on that page. The only one Keystone is in that you list above is AMD, and that still looks good for a nice positive divergence bounce coming, it's oversold, it shows a nice fallling wedge, it should be interesting to watch in the coming days, both the daily and weekly charts are positively diverged, it should take a juicy bounce. The others have not been entered.
You have to have a constant shopping list for all occasions since the markets may start to move really fast, and you will not have time to dilly daddly, if you want to rotate into other plays you have to be ready to rock. Keystone scans the lists to see if any are ripe and ready to go, that is the idea behind the price levels, think of all those tickers listed as all on deck but may or may not go to bat.
Great, that clears things up nicely. I will be hoping then to be nimble watching for your actual executions, "bot" postings. Understanding they are very speculative. I need to see those because I have no shopping list of my own, yet. Just "bot" AMD. Thank you KS. BTW you are no Rip Van Winkle, he loathed "profitable labor" ;)
ReplyDeleteKeystone uses some short hand each day so the 'bot' he writes is because he is too lazy to write 'bought'. As in 'bot 4,000 shares of AMD', so hopefully no one gets this mixed up with using bot to also mean robot. Keystone did not realize that may cause some confusion. So Keybot is the robot or bot that trades the core position in the portfolio. But the individual speculative trades on Keystone's site here are called out as 'bot AMD' which means purchased AMD shares.
DeleteThat was always clear, to me anyway, but thanks.
DeleteApple broke down thru resistance, but maybe bobbing back up now...or not
beware of the ides of oct 4. last year it marked the bottom. this year it may mark the top? markets love to play almanac!
ReplyDeleteThat is interesting, that was when Chairman Bernanke was pumpin' the Operation Twist talk. Oct. 4th is also within the two overlapping Bradley windows. Also is the ECB. If the ECB cuts rates, the euro should fall, whcih should take commodities and equity markets lower. Europe has no choice but to weaken the euro since that is how they can get the manufacturing base to grow again, and especially for Germany to start humming on all cylinders. So you may be on to something, an ECB cut would create some dramatic markets.
DeleteVery interesting discussion, thanks Anon and KS. There are a couple other things going on, as Obama/Bernanke are committed to winning the election and the ECB may have been "asked" to help out by not blowing up the euro just yet. The markets feel very skittish here, as if traders know things are dicey and they're exiting at the first whiff of sell-off. Sentiment is supposed to be complacent and bullish, but I suspect there's a bit of fear out there just because it's October. Lots of cross-currents and whipsaws, not a healthy market but one that may "surprise" if there is any sort of phony "progress" in Europe or some bogus "earnings surprise." It seems like too many people are expecting a blowup here for it to happen. Just some speculation on election-year lipstick-on-the-pig....
ReplyDeleteGood point, the following ECB meeting is 11/8, two days after the U.S. presidential elections, so the ECB could wait until then so as to not make waves. The plot thickens. Late week will be a circus with ECB, FOMC Minutes and Jobs Report.
ReplyDelete