Thursday, October 11, 2012

SPX Daily Chart Upward-Sloping Channel Potential M Top Bollinger Bands

The upward-sloping black channel remains in play. Price failed the thin black center line trend line yesterday to now explore the lower half of the channel.  Note the sideways channel establishing itself with the thick red lines.  The price action has formed an M Top so watch to see if that pattern remains in place, which is very bearish and ominous for markets moving forward. We watched price print the matching highs as compared to the price peak one month prior as negative divergence formed for the indicators (red lines) that created the spank down.

The RSI is under 50%, bearish, and is printing lower lows showing a weak and bleak profile.  Ditto the MACD line.  The histogram, stochastics and money flow, however, want to see a dead cat bounce occur and the futures are up as this chart is posted supplying this request. The bounce should be short-lived, however, since the RSI and MACD line will need satisfied, and also the stochastics are not even sub 20 yet to indicate an oversold condition. Thus, it appears that the bounce would be a shorting opportunity at this juncture.

The Bollinger Bands squeezed in to help create the sharp stab south for price over the last four days.  Price violated the lower BB at 1432 yesterday. Interestingly, study the previous tight BB that occurred early September when Draghi announced the ECB bond-buying plan.  That was a large upward price spike that poked up thru the upper BB (blue circle) thus, correlating that movement to now, as price moves lower, a deeper violation would be anticipated to the 1419-1429 area.  The 50-day MA at 1426 is important moving forward as well.  Price wants to jump back up to back kiss the thin black line at 1440-ish at the opening bell today. See if tech leads higher today to verify, or not, that the bulls have oomph. Also watch UTIL 481.36; if the bulls cannot drive utilities higher today, they got nothing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

4 comments:

  1. constructive surgery required in the Soybeans pits Robots cancelled all there offer on ECOT after the new and drove prices up 20 handles in latency pop awesome - algo war with massive 5 handle swings there after wasn't prepared for that but I had some fun that lasted a second.

    08:40:50 NOV12 Futures ZS BOT 1 1549 3/4 ECBOT false 2.68
    08:40:51 NOV12 Futures ZS SLD 1 1551 1/2 ECBOT false 2.68

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  2. ES on the rise... I'm a master of the obvious today.

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  3. That is wild MCAP. This is the wild side with the trillions in derivatives that are traded in the commodities arena. The markets may have billions of dollars of different instruments riding on one little bushel of apples. It really makes you wonder. Perhaps in the years ahead all will realize that the most important prize in it all is to actually own the bushel of apples.

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  4. I agree Jim Rogers is always talking about farming farming farming. I'm game as long as I can still trade a little. Thanks.

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