Thursday, May 10, 2012

U S Dollar Daily Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Sideways Channel

The dollar direction determines markets. Dollar up = euro down = gold, silver, oil, copper, commodities and equities down. Dollar down = euro up = gold, silver, oil, copper, commodities and equities up.  Price moved thru a sideways triangle since the beginning of the year and is breaking upwards in May. Note how price moved into the apex of the triangle, with moving averages sideways as well, and then performed a fake out move to the downside before moving higher. When price moves across the entire triangle before breaking out, the move is then typically weaker than the vertical side of the triangle would project.  The thick blue line projects an upside target of 83.5 but even if this is difficult to attain, a move to 81.5 could easily be in the cards. The 200-day MA is sloping strongly upwards which is a bullish indication.

The indicators are now favorable to more upside, after any pull back should occur, since the RSI and money flow especially show long and strong profiles over the last month. Yesterday price tapped the top of the horizontal light blue channel and pulled back. Over the next couple days this 80.30-ish resistance level is important. The thrust higher for the last eight days, corresponding with the eight day selling in the euro, does need a rest right now, so it is not unreasonable to expect a pull back to the 79.7-ish support line or 50-day MA at 79.5. The expectation would then be for price to move higher busting up thru the top rail of the horizontal channel and heading higher to test the 80.6-ish resistance. Dollar up = down markets; dollar down = up markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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