Thursday, May 10, 2012

SPX Daily Chart H&S

This chart shows the rolling top that Keystone has been discussing since February, but it seems like a lot longer.  This has been a tricky topping pattern.  Note the red rising wedge and negative divergence that spanked price lower.  A head and shoulder pattern is in place, as it is on the other major indexes as well, the 1340 neck line support is critical.  For a head at 1420, neck at 1340, that is a difference of 80, so the target is 1340-80 = 1260 should the neck line fail.  Let's call it the 1250-1260 area since sturdy horizontal support is at 1250. The 1340-1343 area is super critical for today into Monday.

The price action over the last month has placed an ever-so-slightly lower low with the histogram, stochastics and money flow all positively diverged wanting to see a bounce in price.  RSI and MACD line, however, are not convinced and would like to see lower lows and a test of the neck line at 1340 at a minimum.  Fate seems to dictate that the 1330-1340 area must be explored in the days ahead. The red circles show the distribution taking place as the rolling top plays out.  When you see larger red sell candles after a buying candle day, that shows distribution by the smart money to Ma and Pa Sucka as these naive bag holders enter the markets long based on hype they hear from the smart money managers on television; pump and dump always alive and well in markets.

The 200-day MA is flat and not sloping up which further hints that market weakness is ahead and that price should finally roll over in the days and weeks ahead. Watch that neckline at 1340-1343 closely. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

3 comments:

  1. KS how that's CEP LOL junk off the bottom I love it... I'm offering stock in 1 lots on BATS if any 1 wants some at 2.24 lmao. I should dump it all on the bid to much blogging not enough trading today. What's your read on the paper?

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  2. Hello MCAP, CEP was not exciting but now that it is pulling back, it may look attractive at 1.80-2.00 since a lower low in price will be placed, as compared to the beginning of the year, and the indicators should all be positively diverged. Daily chart is positively diverged with the lower low as well but MACD line may need to see one more low, so it is close to its base adn bottom now and likely has merit as a long from 1.75-2.00.

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  3. There was two good volume weeks One b4 2012 and one Feb were due a bump up in volume but what i do like is AEM no position yet but candle look appealing on the monthly

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