Tuesday, May 8, 2012

European Bond Yield Summary 5/8/12

10-Year Yields:
Greece 23.37% (up 300 basis points over the last week)
Portugal 11.36% (jumps 23 bips since yesterday)
Hungary 8.10% (jumps 11 bips since yesterday)
Spain 5.77%
Italy 5.42%
Belgium 3.16%
France 2.82% (about 20 bips lower than a week ago)

Netherlands 2.13%
U.K. 1.97%
Finland 1.95%
U.S. 1.85%
Germany 1.57%

France remains well-behaved sporting a 10-year yield well below the 3% level. The Greece elections obviously results in a larger problem for EuropeGreece has failed at forming a coalition government so new elections will be on tap, but the country needs to come up with funds within a month's time.  The Greece yield has blown up 300 basis points since 4/30/12, moving up 20 or 30 basis points per day, that is not good.

Hungary is in trouble again now firmly over 8%. Spain is flatlining remaining about 20 bips from the 6% level. For the perceived safer havens, all are now under 2% except Netherlands. Germany is now at a paltry 1.57%, truly remarkable. Money is being stuffed into Germany as traders are losing confidence in everything that surrounds this economically strong and fiscally responsible country. Many other Eurozone countries simply want the party to continue indefinitely, they simply need a sucker to give them money.  Oddly enough, the ECB should be the lender of last resort and with the LTRO's have become the lender of first resort. What a mess. The euro is down for seven days in a row busting down thru the 130 level yesterday before slightly recovering from those lows. The Libor rates, however, are moving sideways. If they move up that will signal uneasiness growing. U.S. futures are pointing towards a weak open. Dollar up = euro down = commodities down = equities down.

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