Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Keystone's NYA 40-Week MA Cross Indicator Signals Secular Bear Market

Yesterday price pierced the 40-week MA to the downside and today it closed under. This reverses the secular bull pattern in place since the start of the year.  This tool signals that the markets are now in a Secular Bear Market moving forward.  Of course watch closely over the coming days to see if price stays under the 40-week MA.  Note the summer 2010 swoon, when markets were collapsing, deflation, Chairman Bernnake announced QE2 to save the day.  The secular bull then started in August-September 2010.   NYA then collapsed under the moving average for the August 2011waterfall crash sending markets back into a secular bear and the ECB's easy money saved the day in December 2011 with LTRO1 and 2 which sent markets back into a secular bull pattern, until now. The market bears are growling strongly. The Secular Turn page has additional information.
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

    TIP:IEF super bearish today, back test of 200 dma complete. Deflation is back, CRB below multi-year support, the bubble that moved from commodities last year is now in stocks. A test of 200 dma of SPX:CRB suggests 1185 when that parabolic trend finally snaps. Then recession talk will be back.

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  2. AnonymousMay 16, 2012 at 6:16 PM

    That idea of 2011 commodity bubble poppingb and moving to stocks occurred to me yesterday in the shower, trying to puzzle out why countries around the world show head nad shoudlers formations while US made higher highs.

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  3. Keystone SpeculatorMay 17, 2012 at 9:06 AM

    Hello Anon, interesting thoughts. The TIP:IEF chart does verify market direction with the 200-day MA crosses. There is a bubble in high-yield, muni's, divvy stocks, blue chips. DVY is worth watching. Also MUB, HYG, JNK, LQD. LQD appears to be the last to roll over now.

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