NYA remains under 7638 helping market bears. UTIL is flat helping provide the bulls something to hang their hat on. The SPX fell thru 1325 so an acceleration occurred down to a LOD at 1315.28. Tech is leading the downside helping market bears. Key SPX S/R is 1326, 1323, 1322, 1319, 1318, 1316, 1315, 1314, and 1312. Thus, the 1315 support held and the very strong 1314 support has held so far. Keystone sold his TZA position for a tiny profit; this was a longer-than-expected trade due to the long rolling top in the markets February thru May. Also took profits on CTRP as it bounced nicely from positive earnings last evening. Also added more MNKD. Opened new long positions in GNOM, CHK and BBY.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 10:39 AM: SPX is moving sideways thru 1320-1324 the last half hour so pay attention to the move out of this range. Note that the SPX has now filled a critical gap from early February, same with SSO to no surprise, so this is a logical place for a relief bounce. Keystone opened new long positions in NOK and SSO. Intraday NYAD prints -1900 a very low number. TRIN is at 0.80 oddly saying that the bulls are favored today but the markets are red. CPC put/call has been at the 1.2+ level for the last three days hinting that markets need a recovery bounce here to regroup.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 11:15 AM: SPX continues thru the tight sideways range of 1320-1324; watch to see which way it wants to exit. The strongest support below is 1314 and then 1307. If 1307 is lost the 1290's are on the way. SPX is now testing the lower rail at 1320-ish for this sideways range today. Bounce or die. This is important for today's trading. TRIN continues to go against the market today printing 0.51 which should be uber bullish for markets. Perhaps this is a good time to tend to the garden as the bulls and bears fight over the 1320-1324 range.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 12:30 PM: SPX fell out the bottom of that sideways range minutes after the previous message. Price is attracted to the 1315 S/R today, tumbling down to 1311, bouncing, now fighting along 1315 again. For the bears to pierce down thru the strong and sturdy 1314-1318 gauntlet of support is very impressive for the bear case. The bears are not fooolin' around. The 1337, 1326 and 1318 and 1314 are uber strong support levels that failed and price will likely need to retest one or more of these levels. The news of Spanish bank runs at Bankia and others has trader's in a tizzy today. Gold is moving up strongly today up 40 bucks. Reference the gold weekly chart a few posts back to see if price tags the top rail of that descending triangle which may represent the last chance to get out before further weakness comes for weeks and months ahead. Euro is back above 1.27. Detailed SPX S/R in this range is 1319, 1318, 1316, 1315, 1314, 1312, 1309, 1308, 1307, 1306, 1305, 1300 and 1298. TRIN is now 1.0 completely neutral but for the markets down as they are, the TRIN should actually be in the 1.3-2.0 range or higher. NYAD came down to print a lower low at -2126 today, tagging the critical -2100 which hints that a dead cat market bounce would be prudent.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 2:43 PM: Look at SRS go today, did trader's realize the real estate recovery is a mirage? NYAD now printing -2047 uber bearish which typically identifes a market bottom in the very short term time frame (minutes, hours, days). TRIN is 0.88 which favors bulls but the screens remain red, very odd indeed. SPX continues to puke today making lower lows and lower highs since 1 PM. SPX 5-minute chart showing an inverted H&S vibe which targets 1335 but this pattern would be nullified if the SPX drops under 1312. The SPX minute charts are showing positive divergence. UTIL is 465 well above the 451 danger line so bulls keep holding that ace in their poker hand. SPX is at 1312 only 18 points above the 1294 danger line. VIX is over 23. Keystone's SPX:VIX ratio is 55 well under the 68 level we watched for several days. On the lower side, if the ratio keeps falling, 35 will become of interest. Also begin watching the SPX 150-day MA slope since if it flattens and rolls over this is another turn and secular bearish signal.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 3:01 PM: The Nasdaq is receiving a severe beating today down over 40 points, 1.5%. JPM is down 3.4% on the day. Lots of big-time investors use JPM as a core position in their portfolio's and they are having a very bad week. In trading, everyone takes their turn in the barrel, the JPM holder's must bend over and accept more medicine.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 3:11 PM: Whoopsies daisies, JPM tumbling thru the lows of the day, now down 3.8%, on word that CEO Dimon will be asked to testify in front of Congress next month. SPX has pushed down to near lower lows today and the minute charts remain agreeable to a move back up. Keystone bot more GNOM.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 3:45 PM: Here's the test of the 1307 support Keystone mentioned this morning. The bears got game. The SPX minute charts remain positively diverged. We will see if 1307 holds, or not. If not, 1298 is the next sturdy support.
Note Added 5/17/12 at 4:07 PM: SPX received a spanking all the way thru the close ending with a 1304 handle. Nothing but sellers out there, what happened to the dip buyers? They are pictured on a milk carton. Note how the SPX closed under the 1305 support listed above; 1298 should come at some point forward. The 10-year yield is at a record low 1.70% as trader's run from equities into bonds, driving note and bond prices higher, yields lower. VIX printed over 24 near the close before pulling back. Trannies are down three times as much as the Dow Industrials. Lots of cross current oddities in the markets today. FB IPO prices at 38 bucks for tomorrow morning. For homework, keep an eye on those Spanish and Greek banks. Best to give some time for the smoke to clear after this interesting day of trading.
Hi KS, why gold is up 42 bucks today when market is down?...I am confused. Could you please explain. Thank you for everything.
ReplyDeleteHello Anon, lots of cross currents today. The dollar is up slightly, so you would expect commodities and equities lower, which oil and copper is lower. Platinum and palladium somewhat flatter and copper is lower. So the main countercurrent characters are today gold and silver. One guess would be that with the runs on the Spanish banks, this fosters a whole new area of fear. When runs on the banks occur you are talking the Great Depression type stuff, bank holidays, and all kinds of very bad things. Perhaps gold provides some safety and comfort. Thus, also considering that gold and silver have been beaten hard lately, may account for the bounce in these two PM's.
ReplyDeleteLMAO: "what happened to the dip buyers? They are pictured on a milk carton." How do you come up with stuff like this. I thought the market (SPX in this case) would bounce of 1311s... it did initially (and I was thinking about closing my shorts) but now sliced through it as if it wasn't even there (glad I held on to my shorts!). Tomorrow we'll have to see what the FB IPO does to the markets!
ReplyDeleteNYA erased pretty much all YTD gains... the markets are (finally!?) starting to sell for real imho, the other days were just lame. we'll see moving forward though, as a dead cat bounce will happen (but since we all expect it, it may very well not since the markets screws us all... or at least tries too!)
Setting it all up for QE3...right around the Bradley?
ReplyDelete$CPC @ 1.45. Wow!
ReplyDeleteKS,
ReplyDeleteJust saying thank you, again. Trades going well thanks to your generosity.
- Ande
Hello all, the CPC did spike upwards to 1.45 so from this level a market rally would be anticipated to occur and the futures are up as this is written about 2 1/2 hours before the Friday open. So maybe a couple of the longs brought on cna realize some quickie profits.
ReplyDeleteFB IPO is a circus but that was expected with the media. At $38 per share it may trade from $20 to $100 today. OpEx makes all this even more volatile today.
The Bradley's are interesting since we have been in a lull since mid April and now we will go into back to back MAJOR Bradley turns 6/12/12 and 7/28/12. So it looks like wild market action will continue thru the fourth of July. The 6/12 date would have potential to mark a bottom and for the Fed to announce QE3. We will have to see if the CRB keeps drifting lower down into that 250-280 range to signal Chairman Bernanke to act.
Markets need a relief bounce now, CPC says yes. NYAD at -2245, uber low, says yes as well.