Conversely, market bottoms are identified when the NYSI slips under -100. The NYSI identified key bottoms such as the summer 2010 bottom when Chairman Bernanke announced QE2 money printing, the summer 2011 bottom when Bernanke saved the markets with Operation Twist, the December 2011 bottom when the ECB started printing and pumping free money with the LTRO's, the summer 2012 bottom when Draghi proclaimed support for the euro and then followed up with the OMT Bond-Buying program, and the Fed jumped in with QE3 Infinity as well, and the November 2012 bottom as traders sniffed out the Fed's QE4 Infinity and Beyond announcement in December. Do youi think the markets are purely a function of money pumping (quantitative easing)? Please Lord help us when price discovery occurs at some point in the future.
The NYSI has punched above +800 once again, for two or three weeks now, so a significant market top is being placed and should roll over at anytime over the next month. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Hy KS...
ReplyDeleteSorry for commenting SO often :D .. I just can't help myself :D ...
What are the chances to NYSI to leap to a higher value than 1065 ? More or less than 50 %?
Thank you ,
V.
You would make a great detective V. LOL Well, sure, the NYSI may continue up and up. Perhaps look back at the tops described above, where the NYSI hit 800, and judge the duration above; 7 weeks, 6 weeks, 0, 0, 8, 2 and the current move is three weeks old. Thus, 7+6+0+0+8+2 = 23 divided by 6 is 3.8, call it four weeks as the average time once price moves above +800, but some tops occurred immediately, others needed 6 to 8 weeks to roll over.
ReplyDeleteIf we are three weeks into the current move above +800, the average says a significant top occurs within the week or so. Based on all tops, the turn should occur from 0 to 8 weeks. Three have already passed. We are at the point where the reversal should be very close at hand, today, tomorrow, next week, or, in keeping with a NYSI moving much higher, 3 to 4 more weeks. It says we are close if any of that helps.
@ KS:
Delete:D LOL ... ''If we are three weeks into the current move above +800, the average says a significant top occurs within the week or so. ''
that's right in th period that i've told you about ...the dream thing between 6 and 14 feb '13....
Yes, KS, First I want to thank you that you find the time to explain all those things to me and also to others.(from you i've learned the indicators such as: spx:vix ratio, spxa150r, the UTIL importance, cpc ratio, nymo and nysi, bpspx and others. )
The second: all my questions appear because obviously I learn, rising them to you.
OK.
Learning is a form of capital. When I will be good enough and I will transform one form of capital (knowledge) in another form of capital (money) you will have a suprise prepared. :)
When i'll have big money (note that "big" is questionable as a concept :D) 10% of that will be sent to you as self-imposed payment for your work here. Ok, hope we have a deal.
p.s. You may take it as a joke , i'm serious about it. I know that sometimes I write idiot questions (sometimes even I know that they are idiot) but.... I want to learn.
Anyway, we're living in countries with different living standards so... "big money" in my country might not be "big money" in yours. Anyway.. :D ...For me , as retail client, big money is anything that's more than 150-200K $ up to 1.000K and more.
My trading capital is quite thin now(about 7 K$ now), but I have a mind, curiosity and time. Just hope you have patience :D ....
Ok, Thanks,
V.
Keystone is simply helping educate the average Joe and Jane Sixpack to level the playing field, then perhaps they will hold the bag less of the time.
Deleteit's very difficult to be long up here
ReplyDelete@ MCAP:
DeleteAgreed.
We should see how the crude's doing when (and IF) it gets to 100$/bbl versus the way spx500 behaves at 1520(futures)-1527(cash) ...at that level it's a very important edge.
A very important one. (just a beginner's opinion).
V.
p.s. i'm not long here , i'm all in cash, waiting to see the price action at spx 150-1527. here's too risky to enter long (foolish i'd say!) but maybe too early to be short ... it's something like a no-man's-land until 1520/27 occurs.
KS references Cooper a lot and it's very important and that is now up against resistance on the daily chart - it's everything is at an inflection point
Deletethe utlities are doing well today
ReplyDeleteYep, UTIL and JJC are doing the heavy lifting both are running higher and pushing the SPX thru 1503, 1505 and targeting 1511. Financials are up as well today.
ReplyDelete