Of course, on earnings day, anything can happen, and charts obviously do not yet know the outcome, so a big jump higher on blow-out earnings, for JPM or GS, is definitely on the table this morning, however, if the chart has its way, it wants to see lower prices moving forward. The thin lines show critical support levels. The gap up to start the year creates an island for the current price action. This creates potential for an island reversal where price would drop to 44.2-ish and then immediately collapse thru the gap to 43.7 and lower. For starters, the 45.4 is the initial support level to watch if JPM sells off. Note all the gaps below, like swiss cheese, that will all need filling in the future.
Ignoring the earnings release this morning, the projection is a roll over moving forward, with sideways to sideways lower pricing for the days and weeks ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
KS, something I'm not sure of and want to be clear about in the future - if the $TRIN is below one during a day when a market is falling, it's a pretty good clue that it may soon reverse? And vice versa? Thanks for everything.
ReplyDeleteThe TRIN, Arms Index, at 1.00 is neutral. If it moves higher, say 1.0 thru 1.7-ish, that indicates steady eddy selling in the markets, above 1.7, 2, 3, 5, maybe 10 or more which sometimes occurs, rarely, that is uber strong bearish selling in the markets so that will not last, a bounce will be needed.
ReplyDeleteUnder 1.0 say 0.8-1.0, is steady eddy bullish markets, where the indexes can power up without worry strong and steady. Under 0.8 and especially under 0.6 and lower indicate uber bullish buying, complete euphoria at readings like 0.2 or 0.3 or 0.4, rare readings just like the uber high ones. The bull euphoria does not last and markets will need to sell off to relieve the bullish pressure.
On any given day, like yesterday, the markets are trailing lower much of the day but when you look at the TRIN you see 0.6, 0.5 or 0.7, which represents bullishness, you know to watch out since a rally may begin. If you can get a -1000 TICK that would be a good time to enter a long.
Conversely, say the markets are up large any given day but the TRIN is not 0.8 and is instead 1.2 or 1.3 or 1.5, that hints that the market loftiness that day will probably peter out as the day continues.
Sometimes the TRIN can reverse in the final hour so you have to watch. Yesterday it stayed in the 0.7's and the bulls ran markets higher into the close. It's just one of many tools to constantly watch.
I'm anxious now after reading your post to put up a TRIN Arms Index chart and discover trading opportunities thereto. TICK is a great tool that we use to scalp all the time.
DeleteYep MCAP, they are both key tools. If anyone is a day trader the TRIN and TICK must be continuously monitored. In general it is great to follow the TICK for any entry and exit on any trade, obviously, and as you already know, entering longs or covering shorts at -1000 and lower and exiting longs and going short at +1000 TICK's and higher. That always gives you each trade a few pennies in your favor. Every little bit helps.
ReplyDeleteI need another monitor LOL (MCAP) from android
DeleteAAPL's up day expected after y'day's brutal beating. thought about grabbing some 490s for a quick scalp, but know better than being greedy. I'll let the charts set up a lill better. I want to see some continuation from here. Note that the daily RSI is now heavily positively diverged, that's a good sign. So if this would morph into some wave 1 up, then one can safely load up the truck at the wave 2 down and ride wave 3 up: patience is fortune!
ReplyDelete"patience" sure is you have to be stingy with your entrys and exits calendar spreads on Apple look good Feb 510 (MCAP) from android
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