The utilities led the upside parade yesterday breaking thru UTIL 466.79. The action continued to and fro across this level which corresponded to the ups and downs in the broad indexes yesterday. UTIL is at 467.27 forty-eight cents above the bull-bear line. Bears have no hope unless they push UTIL under 466.79 today. On the bullish side, if UTIL stays above 466.79 and hits 475.48 today, the market upside will be explosive. Next week, the 475.48 number is void and replaced with 483.76. The next upside leg in the markets that would produce SPX 1520+ will occur if UTIL moves up thru 484 next week. But staying in the here and now, for today, keeping it simple, the UTIL 466.79 will dictate the broad market direction.
Friday afternoon buoyancy typically appears to end the week. The full moon is occurring now so markets tend to be buoyant in front of the full moon. But these seasonality factors may take a back seat considering the non-stop upward action in recent days. The trend is your friend as long as the short term minute and hourly charts are showing long and strong profiles for the indicators but currently the charts favor negative divergence. The VIX showed signs of life yesterday moving above 13 but then falling on its sword again. Volatility does appear to be basing now wanting to move higher.
The 10-year yield moves to 1.90% today, the euro is over 1.34, oil is up, copper is up, so the bulls are already drinking booze and looking forward to a happy weekend, everything is going the bulls way day after day. AAPL's big drop yesterday has everyone talking about how little affect Apple has on the broad indexes. Last year, 'as Apple goes, so goes the markets'. The inflection point occurred as December 2012 began. AAPL bounced from mid-November, helping lead the markets higher off that bottom, but Apple took a turn for the worse in December. The broad indexes, however, move higher. Chances are, the money that left AAPL did not leave the market. It was pushed into small cap and speculative stocks, especially high short interest plays, creating the wild short squeezes in the market now with stocks such as NFLX. This action is launching markets like a rocket. Six weeks do not change a long-term trend. The jury remains out on the extent of Apple leadership. Give it another month to see if Apple is losing its leadership role. It would not be surprising to see the broad indexes reverse to the downside and the Apple/SPX relationship resume. 18% of the Nasdaq is Apple so 'as Apple goes so goes the Nasdaq' but about 3% of the SPX is Apple having less of an affect. Perhaps once the short squeezes flame out, and all the short sellers are gone, sitting on the sidelines, like now, a clearer picture may emerge.
Also of interest is the Fed and other central banker money printing that has traders sleeping well at night with zero fear of any market downside. The gold action is down and if the 'do not fight the Fed' mantra was running on all cylinders, gold should be catapulting higher. There are many ongoing mixed market signals. There is no geopolitical risk at all priced into markets. Ditto the ongoing political battles since traders fully expect can-kicking to occur without any disruptions moving forward. New Home Sales hit at 10 AM EST so a market stutter step may occur. Secretary Geithner steps down ending his four-year stint. Mr. Softy earnigns wer in line last evening. PG and KMB earnings beat this morning which helps fuel a bullish mood. The Fed meets next Tuesday and Wednesday. The last couple days of January tend to be weak seasonality-wise.
The SPX printed the doji candlestick discussed last evening so that may indicate a trend change to the downside today. For the SPX starting at 1495, one tick below the strong 1496 S/R, the bulls need to punch thru 1502, if so, a test of the strong 1505 will occur in quick order and the 1505 will likely decide if the SPX intends to move to the 1520's. The bears need to push under the strong 1489 support to accelerate the downside to 1485 which will occur quickly. A move thru 1490-1501 is sideways action today. The S&P futures are up four as this missive is typed which would send the SPX towards 1500 to start the day. Watch the 8 and 34 MA cross on the 30-minute chart highlighted this morning, the bulls are currently in charge. In a nutshell, watch UTIL 466.79, SPX 1502 and 1489 to gauge market direction today. Keybot the Quant remains long for the entire year thus far while Keystone maintains a negative outlook on markets moving forward.
all of the utilities stocks that I had referenced the other day that are on my watchlist are at the their daily bollinger bands except for MGEE, ITC, and UIL. The utilities are just short of the 50 day MA. It's Friday and I have to leave the office early, we have a doji candle on the SP - it makes for a difficult decision making environment when you have to decide do you tie up bookoh dollars taking positions for what will in all likely be a small move in utilites perhaps a .25% to 1.00% per equity on the under performers referenced above and how much really is there left on the stonger trading names with them climbing up the bands. There isn't anything easy about this business. I'm going to buy NUGT today its under its daily bollinger band as a trade. Otherwise it's going to be difficult to just watch today but sometimes that's the best trade of them all.
ReplyDelete08:51:12 Stock NUGT BOT 100 8.63 ARCA false 1.00
ReplyDelete08:42:40 FEB13 Futures GC BOT 1 1661.60 NYMEX false 2.32
08:43:20 FEB13 Futures GC SLD 1 1661.80 NYMEX false 2.32
09:05:31 FEB13 Futures GC BOT 1 1660.10 NYMEX false 2.32 09:06:19 FEB13 Futures GC SLD 1 1660.50 NYMEX false 2.32
Don't have the balls today to short oil.... But its a good drop so is Gold I think to the 1650's then NUGT will be worth buying more of.
these posts showing 0.20 profits are really a big waste of time.
DeleteAnon, offer up something constructive, post your strategies.
Deletehow come mcap does not post his strategies after he does a trade? instead, he justs posts these ridiculous tiny day trade results after the fact!
Deleteour strategy of deploying HF algorithms on a minimum latency network infrastructure are VWAP, TWAP, POV technicals which are the benchmarks that our algorithms use while making trading decisions. So in theory
Deleteif the price of a buy trade is lower than the VWAP, it is a good trade and its
not a good trade if the price is higher than the VWAP. It is obviously way more complicated than this but if you do that a few hundred times a day tiny is not tiny anymore.
8.485 not 9.485
DeleteD saw lots of call buying the other day and that was a hint that some buoyancy in utilities were on tap. So far today, UTIL remains above 466.79 so the bears are beaten again. NUGT trying to set up some pos. div. but it seems dead set on coming down to test 8.2. The 8.2 would lead to 7.8. This would also satisfy the 80/20 rule that says a move from 12 to 8 occurs. Perhaps still worth waiting a bit to see if 7.5-7.9 prints which may be the key entry. Perhaps choppy action ahead for a while.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to have to seriosly read your 80/20 rule because whenever I think a NUGT can't go any lower it goes lower. The BB on the 2min is getting pretty if Gold continues to base it should be okay. I bought more effectively reducing my cost average now to 9.485 In hingsight the profitable trade would have been sell put on this from the open.
ReplyDelete10:05:54 Stock NUGT BOT 100 8.32 ARCA false 1.00
8.485 not 9.485 I think when Gold prices accept the 1675 handle again or better NUGT will be just over 9 will continue acquire shares by acquisition and put sales provided it keeps dropping... We are looking for 10% on this position which would be 9.35 +
DeleteGold is very perplexing. With the 'do not fight the Fed' adage in play, and everyone agreeing this is sending markets to new heights, the printing presses are running 24/7, gold and PM's should be catapulting higher, but, they are not. Something is not quite right about it all (markets in general). The 80/20 rule is only a general guideline but 8's lead to 2's and 2's lead to 8's. when going down if a ticker drops thru say 12, then 8 would be in play (2 to 8), if price comes down thru 9.20 then 8.80 would be targeted. A failure of 8.20 would lead to 7.80. A failure of 8.22 would lead to 8.18. The rule works across any price level. So the thinking is that if 12 failed, 8 would be a target and this is lower support as well. Thus, a target of 7.78-7.90 would be attractive, but all this conjecture is only based on the 80/20 rule, of course this is then gelled together with all the other tools to figure out a path.
ReplyDeleteI was trading Gold when it was 350 an oz and at that time it cost 386 an oz to pull it out of the ground so it became one of my all time best investments.... Strategy being that the artificially low prices could not be substantiated because every mining company in the world be out of business.... So gold has a very long history of government market manipulation whoops I mean to say suppression back then all the central banks were short... talk about a squeeze... That was 15 years ago now can you imagine what Gold will be in the next 15 years... I just buy it in every way when it dips i have a Jim Rogers mentality with it.
Deletehttp://scharts.co/Wr4jjE
ReplyDeleteLOL I just typed up a reply and it got deleted by accident I'll let the chart speak for it's self at this point.
Thanks KS