Keystone's Midday Market Action 1/30/13; FOMC Decision

Copper catapults higher. Utilities pausing. Oil flat now perhaps turning negative.  The SPX is leaking lower today and succeeding in pulling down the 8 MA on the 30-minute chart so far. The TRIN started out at 0.8 showing another bull day ahead but then ran up to 1.00, now at 1.01 so consider this a minor victory for bears even though 1.00 only signals a neutral vibe in the markets not favoring bulls or bears. The VIX was over 14 now trying to move back above again. The euro is 1.3569 above the 200-week MA at 1.3528, equity bullish. The 10-year yield is on a wild ride, in only a few hours time from 2.03% down to 1.97% back up to 2.03% all over the place. The GDP is -0.1% surprising even the most negative prognostications.  The bulls keep ignoring bad news but the bag of bad news rocks is now growing increasingly heavy.  The SPX tried to punch up thru 1509 to accelerate the upside, HOD at 1510, but failed so far. The LOD is 1503 far away from the 1498 the bears need. Markets are likely holding steady moving sideways until the FOMC announcement at 2:15 PM which will create a market pivot point either up big, or down big.

Note Added 1/30/13 at 1:56 PM:  The Fed decision is near. SPX 1507.  Dow 13947. RUT 902.35. JJC 47.31 (Copper 3.749 at the top rail of the triangle shown on this morning's chart). WTIC oil 97.66 at the top rail of the triangle shown on this morning's chart. UTIL 473.51. TRIN flat neutral at 0.99. VIX 13.91. 10-year Treasury yield 2.03%.  The euro remains elevated at 1.3569. Gold is up one percent today to 1678.

Note Added 1/30/13 at 3:00 PM:  Pig in a poke. The news was the same old Fed talk. SPX 1505. Dow 13933. RUT 898.77 (slipping sub 900). JJC 47.29. Copper 3.748. WTIC oil 97.95. UTIL 473.38. TRIN 0.96. VIX 13.87. 10-Year Treasury yield is 2.01%. The euro is 1.3565. Gold 1674. No great shakes after the much-awaited announcement.  The 8 MA is curling over to the downside, barely, on the SPX 30-minute chart and nearing the 34 MA. The SPX needs to stay under 1506 and head lower to keep pulling the 8 MA down. Bears got nothing unless they move the 8 MA under the 34 MA on the 30-minute. The circus will next focus on FB earnings after the bell.

Note Added 1/30/13 at 3:25 PM:  The 8 MA is dropping as the SPX price drops to 1501 so the 8 and 34 MA cross may occur before the close today.  Well bears, do you have what it takes? TRIN 1.01. VIX 14.00.

Note Added 1/30/13 at 4:05 PM:  The bears fell a hair short of pushing the 8 under the 34 MA but it should occur at the opening bell tomorrow. The only thing that can save the bulls is a gap up move in the morning. Thus, listen for any bullish news overnight that would hint at another stick save coming. Barring that, the 8 should cross down thru the 34 MA tomorrow forecasting bearish markets ahead and additional selling on tap. January typically finishes with a couple down days. Copper is strong and utilities remain buoyant so at this juncture, the market move lower would be projected to be shallow. If oil, copper and commodities are hit, perhaps on China slowdown news, this would create bear fuel. The bulls are not sweating yet. The SPX closes at 1502 remaining above the psychological 1500. TRIN 1.03.  VIX closes at the high at 14.26, big up in volatility today showing that the bears are coming out of hibernation. A move above 16 for VIX will create strong market selling. Perhaps tomorrow will bring a delayed reaction to the negative GDP with market selling.

Note Added 1/30/13 at 4:15 PM:  FB earnings beat on top and bottom line but the stock is moving lower. QCOM hits it out of the park jumping six pecent AH's. 10-year yield is under 2% at 1.99%.