Keystone's Midday Market Action 1/15/13

The bears begin the day with a push lower like yesterday. Initially, the 8 MA fell thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart but recovered so the bulls continue to drive the bus. Copper, JJC, fell under the 45.68 level identified as a bull-bear line by Keystone's algorithm which creates today's negativity. AAPL was downgraded before the bell and it fell thru 500 from the get go, then thru 490 printing a low with a 488 handle thus far. The key now is commodities, GTX, the 4935 level mentioned this morning. Price is now at 4942 only a few dollars above.   The broad indexes will drop strongly if GTX 4935 fails. Market bulls will try to hold the line. The Business Inventories are only minutes away so the markets will likely pivot. GTX now at 1439......

Note Added 1/15/13 at 10:02 AM: Business Inventories are up, markets move flat. WTIC oil moved up to 94 but now has dropped again. Copper is in the bear camp now. The 8 MA has stabbed down thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, you saw the soap opera yesterday, see if this holds or if more drama is required.  GTX receives a big jump to 4945, the bulls know they have to keep the GTX head above water today, and so far they are succeeding. The SPX is holding the 2 1/2 day support at 1466, so far. Price is under the strong 1468 S/R which is a small feather in the bear's cap. The bulls are pushing JJC higher, if this recovers to the bull side, the broad indexes are going to move higher again.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 12:44 PM:  The popular ongoing soap opera, As the Market Churns, continues along. JJC is 45.84 and GTX is 4948, both are in the bull camp and creating the market buoyancy today. The SPX has more lives than a cat, continuing to levitate and frustrate the bears. The SPX moved back above the strong 1468 S/R so this feather returns to the bull's hat. The Dow Industrials turned green for a short time. The daily Fed pumps clearly launch markets each day between 10 and 11 AM. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart which is a significant feather in the bear's cap, despite the markets floating higher. Lots of mixed signals continue. TRIN is 0.75-0.85 over the last couple hours, bull friendly, helping the markets recover. Bears need to push the TRIN above 1.0.  The FB announcement is minutes away, Zuck better bring the 'A' game since traders expect something really big. Oil is negative. Copper and commodities, JJC and GTX, hold the key today.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 1:12 PM:  FB announces some type of fancy schmancy search engine that uses filters, the shares trade off, first a half percent, then over one percent lower but now higher, as the news is digested. Zuck did not bring the 'A' game in fact it appears the dog ate the homework, but the stock is hanging in there so far. JJC is 45.82. GTX is 4951. Oil is negative.  The euro is moderating at 1.3355. The 10-year yield is 1.82%. The SPX is 1470.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 2:15 PM:  Whoopsies daisies, GTX lost 4935, keep an eye on that. This will create market bearishness. FB is negative now as Suckaberg taps the magical bottle of graphical search elixir in front of the adoring Koolaid-drinking crowd, promising to cure all your ills with just one sip.  After all the talk on the graphical search jazz, at the end of the presentation, Zuck says a Bing partnership is in place. He buried the lead.  FB simply is using Bing now.  At the same time, the highly paid FB algo programmers spent the shareholders money on this graphical search stuff. Nothing like bashing an idea that no one even has taken the time to understand yet, but that's the way Wall Street rolls. JJC is 45.77, if this can drop a dime the bears can get some serious downside in motion.  The euro fell thru 1.33, now at 1.3286. WTIC oil is now down to 93.52.  Copper turned negative so this will drag JJC lower.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 2:40 PM:  GTX tumbles lower to 4926 casting a negative cloud this afternoon. JJC is 45.75 only pennies above the 45.67-45.70 level that will create market mayhem if it fails before the close. TRIN is 0.71 which provides bull strength.  Keystone took profits on EUO exiting this long trade. EUO remains attractive and will likely continue higher moving forward (euro falling). Will look to reenter.  Also bot more SRS adding to this ongoing long position. The hourly and minute charts are displaying attractive positive divergence so a bottom may be at hand for SRS.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 3:04 PM:  The SPX pops above 1471 turning positive on the day. The resiliency of the bulls is impressive refusing to give up. The fight at the 1472 resistance level in recent days is epic and we still do not know the result.  GTX remains under 4935, bearish. JJC is goosed to 45.80 which helps the bulls. The oil and euro show weakness preferring negativity so the move up in copper with the SPX moving up verifies the clout that JJC holds moving forward.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 3:19 PM:  The 8 MA is back above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. These flip-flops are ridiculous over the last two days, this 8/34 cross never exhibits this type of behavior and it proves how the broad indexes are in an indecision mode, wanting to break one way or the other but cannot make a decision. GTX is under 4935 and says down is the direction. JJC is above 45.68 and says up is the direction. One of these will flinch. AAPL is 486.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 4:49 PM:  AAPL closes under 500. Bulls and bears decided to call it a day and go home. GTX and JJC will be in training tonight ready for a rematch tomorrow. Commodities and copper should move in the same direction, typically opposite of the dollar and in concert with the euro.  Thus, if a bear on the markets, you want to see lower euro, higher dollar and lower copper, commodities and oil.  If bullish, you want to see higher euro, lower dollar and higher copper, commodities and oil.  The TRIN finished at 0.73, uber bullish. The low TRIN was a hint today that the bulls would make a late day charge. The SPX finishes above the strong 1472 S/R which is a feather in the bulls cap. The charts continue to set up with negative divergence but the bulls are very resilient managing a recovery each time they are knocked down.  JPM and GS banksters report earnings tomorrow and will set the tone, either big party time that requires more booze and lamp shades, or big disappointment time that would require a funeral service. The Beige Book is tomorrow afternoon. GTX 4935 and JJC 45.68 will dictate market direction tomorrow and the banks will provide a strong push in the markets as well in the direction that JPM and GS earnings dictate.