Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 1/15/13; PPI; Retail Sales; Business Inventories

The market bears attempted a push lower yesterday, even with AAPL and tech weakness in their favor, but failed to make any headway. The SPX 1468 and 1472 S/R levels remain key. The SPX has been moving sideways thru 1450-1472, 22 handles for the entire year thus far.  The SPX has moved thru 1466-1472, only six points, for the last 2 1/2 days.  The late day push higher yesterday was more due to the buoyancy in oil and commodities than the DELL buyout news.  For today, GTX 4935 and JJC 45.68 are going to dictate market direction after the opening bell.  Both are contributing bullishly to markets right now so the bears need to reverse one or both of these asap, otherwise the bulls will use the bears as a doormat today. RTH 43.85 is key as well, also creating bullishness in the markets. The retail sector is one of the main drivers of bullish markets over the last year and the Retail Sales numbers this morning will rock this sector.

For the SPX today starting at 1471, the bulls have the easy road ahead, only needing one measly point  higher, to punch up thru 1472, to ignite an upside acceleration to 1475-1476.  The bears need to push under 1466 to create a downside acceleration. A move thru 1467-1471 is sideways action. There is lots of drama with Keystone's SPX 30-Minute Chart with 8 MA and 34 MA Cross Indicator which shows the 8 above the 34 indicating bullish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, it is a knock-down drag-out fight ongoing, the 8 and 34 are tracking on top of each other and will decide market direction today.  AAPL is important after yesterday's news about a decreased demand appearing for the iPhone. Apple printed a closing low at 501.75 not seen since February 2012, eleven months ago.  Ditto for the intraday low, which broke thru 500 yesterday, at 498.51. Watch these two price support points closely today.

Chairman Bernanke's talk last evening was a non-event, same-o stuff. Secretary Geithner got into the act as well and the two choir boys warned of doom and gloom ahead if the debt ceiling is not raised. Many traders are thinking that Bernanke actually appeared a touch less dovish last evening. This is creating some of the drift lower in European markets this morning. The complacency continues in the markets with the low CPC and VIX as well as the high levels of bullishness in the Investors Intelligence Survey. The BPSPX is at 77.40 continuing higher but its chart indicators are all now pegged at maximum overbot levels. Watch to see if this finally decides to peak out, or not. The TRIN hugged the neutral 1.00 line yesterday not indicating any real preference for bulls or bears. The TICK machine was also calm yesterday, only producing a spike to +932 in the final minute as markets spiked to finish near the highs. There are many cross signals occurring in markets now and expected correlations are not lining out normally.  This is due to the stone-cold flat sideways action all year long thus far as highlighted in the first paragraph.

Three important data releases occur at 8:30 AM.  PPI (Producer Price Index) provides a gauge on inflation, or lack thereof.  Retail Sales is the key number today since it will provide a read on the holiday sales and impact RTH mentioned above.  A 0.2% increase is expected. The automobile sales component is important. The Empire State Manufacturing  Survey also hits at this time.  Fed heads Rosengren, Kocherlakota and Plosser are all out spinnin' yarns today.  Business Inventories hit at 10 AM and a market pivot point is expected. LEN earnings will impact the housing sector. FB makes a big announcement at 1 PM today. During OpEx weeks, a Tuesday low typically occurs that leads to a Wednesday high. At this writing, futures are flat, oil is up, copper is down. The 10-year is 1.83% continuing to ever so slowly leak lower in yield, higher in price, so folks continue to prefer the perceived safety of Treasuries. The euro is flat at 1.3380. German GDP data this morning is weaker than expected. Up euro = up markets. Down euro = down markets. In a nutshell, watch GTX 4935, JJC 45.68, oil and focus on the 8 and 34 MA cross on the 30-minute chart as described above (starting the day pointing to bullishness ahead).

Note Added 1/15/13 at 6:15 AM:  Both WTIC oil and Brent just turned negative. The S&P's are down three. 10-year is 1.83%.  Copper is negative. The euro drops to 1.3345.

Note Added 1/15/13 at 8:37 AM:  Empire State was worse than expected, Retail Sales are better than expected and PPI is in line.  The S&P's are down five, were down seven before the data. 10-yr is 1.82%.  The euro is falling today now at 1.3329. Oil and copper remain weak.