The first full week of trading for 2013 begins today. Markets are idling flat overnight, futures are flat, the euro is drifting lower to 1.3040. The 10-year yield is hanging out at the 1.90% decision line (type 'TNX' into the search box above to review the 10-year Treasury note chart). Copper is negative. Oil is down. AAPL is down over one percent pre-market. The Nasdaq futures are down a hair more than the S&P's which is encouraging for bears but only marginally.
The Basel regulations were relaxed on bank liquidity requirements so the European banks are bouncing today. Europe in general is negative. Toyota cuts auto forecasts for China and says they have no plans for any new plants before 2016. Senator McConnell takes taxes off the table and says spending is the focus ahead of the debt crisis deadline. The president says not-so and that we have only begun to start taxing. The politicians love the theatrical stage and both are currently barricading themselves in their dressing rooms.
Sticking to the technicals to make sense of it all, the SPX minute and hourly charts from the weekend show that a pull back is at hand. Even though futures are flat, the fair value read is pointing to a few points of weakness after the open. This would begin to satisfy the spank down needed from the rising wedges and negative divergence shown on the charts. Look for a test of 1459-1461 strong support. If it fails then a downside acceleration will occur and the bears will flex their muscles. If this support level holds, the bears got nothing, and the bulls will take the broad indexes up again to explore Friday's highs. .
Most important, as measured by Keystone's algo, is the utilities sector. If the bulls can push UTIL above 466, the markets are going to take another leg higher. The market bears must prevent UTIL 466 today; it is their most important mission. UTIL 466 will tell you which side has the strength moving forward, bears remain in the game under UTIL 466, but will crumble if the bulls take out UTIL 466 to the upside. For the SPX starting at 1466, the bulls need two green points to touch 1468 and this will send price to test 1472 in very quick order. The bears need to push under 1459 as mentioned above. A move thru 1462-1467 is sideways action today. There is a tech conference and healthcare conference today so tech, healthcare and biotech names will receive attention. In a nutshell, watch UTIL 466, SPX 1468 (happy bulls) and SPX 1459 (happy bears).
It's all about GOLD this week.
ReplyDelete09:25:02 FEB13 Futures GC BOT 1 1644.30 NYMEX false 2.32
09:26:25 FEB13 Futures GC SLD 1 1644.70 NYMEX false 2.32
09:31:21 Stock NUGT BOT 100 9.93 ARCA false 1.00
After reading the stockcharts.com monthly news letter and seeing today's price action in the futures and studing that daily chart. I will be aggressively scalp trading a gold bounce.
http://stockchartscom.cmail5.com/t/ViewEmail/r/EBFB3FED6D97FBA5/BFE81D29E21CE5ED4D402EFBD42943A3
Interesting MCAP, the PM's are very tricky these days because of the political and central banker shenanigans. NUGT has some gaps below on the daily chart, 9.5, 9.0, 8.4-ish then 8.0 support. Was looking at it on the weekend but with the 80/20 rule, 2's typically lead to 8's, so am leery that it wants to come down to 8. So thinking 7.6-8.0. The weekly chart looks okay, it made a base a few months ago, however, the whole space is tricky. Would not be surprised to see it move up without coming back.
ReplyDeleteGoing to scale up the zone again in the FEB13's at 1645.70 and anything under 10 on the NUGT especially anything under what I paid I'll round up to a 1000 shares and then ten times that amount when the 3/9EMA cross on the 30 minute chart. I thought Gold might flush down to 1626.40 today but I'm going to jump that price and just arb the ATR.
ReplyDelete09:47:05 FEB13 Futures GC BOT 1 1646.20 NYMEX false 2.32
ReplyDelete09:48:29 FEB13 Futures GC SLD 1 1646.60 NYMEX false 2.32
FYI 9.60 is what I have NUGT going to next got that early distracted by Futures. Damn 3x gamed EFTs never really trade in tandem with the futures. I will take 400 at the 9.60 level and monitor GOLD. Going to see if it's worth short a January 10 call on NUGT now to hedge.
ReplyDeleteClassic sideways roll in the ES Mar'13 its testing the 120SMA on the 30 chart do or die line its throwing back up there now but its useless sometimes to even trade for a handle in ES. I have been fishing for a scalp at 1453.75 to 1455.00 so is everyone else not easy to get filled in the ES at the prices you want when the cummulative bid is in the thousands.
ReplyDeleteLooking at SWHC at 8.46 if it gets there and MM if gets under the daily bollinger bands < 11.50
ReplyDeleteYou came to play today MCAP, good on you. SWHC is tricky, the weekly chart is providing a H&S vibe with neckline at 8. The pattern would send it to 5. Daily chart is playing around with the 200-day MA at 8.78. Indicators on daily chart may not want to move above their 50% levels (RSI, stoch's, etc...)
ReplyDeleteLots of bells and whistles here today... watching NOW, CAMP, SWHC (still) haven't pulled the trigger on anything the SP's look tired maybe there will be some dimes to collect if we rally into the close. Had somemore gold trades today it was reluctantly bullish all day perhaps tonight or tommorow we can get a 10 handle move hopefully up I'd like to exit NUGT over 10 and then get it around 9.40 if that is possible.
ReplyDelete