Wednesday, August 7, 2019

TNX 10-Year US Treasury Yield Daily Chart; 10-Year Yield Drops Below President Trump's Election Level


The US 10-year Treasury yield drops to 1.64% below the level during President Trump's election in November 2016. The 10-year yield is at levels not seen since October 2016. Back then, republican Donald Trump defeated democrat Hillary Clinton and it was off to the races for stocks. Treasury bonds and notes sold off (yields rise) as traders expected a robust economy and strong growth ahead. The money leaving bonds flows into the stock market.

President Trump hacked away at banking regulations when he came into office which sent the stock market higher and yields higher (notes and bonds selling off). Like all prior presidents, Trump takes care of the wealthy first since this privileged class bankrolls the reelection campaigns in the future. Such is the crony capitalism system in America. Trump then cut taxes rewarding the richest folks in the US with thousands of dollars. This privileged class then contributed one-third of the tax gains to Trump's reelection campaign. This is how the corrupt republocrat and demopublican two-party system functions in America; both parties are two sides of the same coin.

Treasury yields move higher in 2017 and 2018 as the belief that good times, and inflation were ahead. Trump is unleashing the economy and investment banks, such as JPM, were touting a 4% yield in the months ahead. Alas, yields peaked last Fall, when the stock market peaked, and have collapsed ever since. Now the yield is below when President Trump took office. The move higher in yields a couple years ago is now matched, and exceeded, with a down move in yields since Fall 2018. The luster is off the orange rose.

Worries increase over the ongoing trade wars, protectionism and a slowing global economy. Investors and traders seek safety in US Treasuries sending note and bond prices higher and yields lower. The global central banks continue reducing rates which also forces US rates lower. The German 10-year bund yield is down to -0.60%. The world's Westernized financial systems are likely slipping away into chaos.

The chart has an island reversal vibe (blue lines) with yield gapping higher on the election and then sitting on the island for 2-1/2 years, and then coming down and gapping lower back through the same gap (or at least in the neighborhood). No one talks about inflation anymore. Dropping yields go hand in hand with a sick global economy, falling equity markets and a disinflationary and deflationary vibe. The end game may be near for the sick central banks that have controlled markets since March 2009. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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