NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Negative NYA 40-Wk MA Cross Signals Cyclical Bear Market

The NYA keeps bouncing to and fro across the critical 40-week MA at 12533 one of Keystone's most important cyclical (weeks and months perhaps a year or two) stock market signals. On Friday, the NYA collapses through the 40 ushering in a cyclical bear market. As always you have to give it a week or two to see if the bears have the beans to maintain the negative move.

The NYA fell into a cyclical bear market during the Q4 2018 stock market crash (red circle on the left). Equities bottomed on Christmas Eve but on January 3, 2019, as Keystone described in real-time, stocks took a turn for the worse and the internal data clearly showed a crash ahead. Equities were in the process of collapsing until the central bankers panicked stepping in to save the day. The global central bankers including the Fed, BOJ, ECB, PBOC and others colluded and coordinated messages and monetary policy to save the stock market and once again protect the wealthy class. Stocks catapult higher as the central bankers promise to print money forever.

The NYA regains the 40-week MA in early February (green circle) as it was quite obvious that the central bankers will never let the stock market fail. The NYA teased a failure during the May malaise but this price action only served as a bear-trap. Equities run higher to all-time record highs in July, and then fall on their sword. As mentioned above, this 3-week battle at the NYA 40-week MA determines who wins and loses going forward.

Each day the NYA remains below the 40-week MA is another nail in the bull coffin. Anyone long the market or individual stocks will be losing money if the NYA remains below the 40. Bears will be humiliated and have to run away with their tail between their legs again if the NYA regains the 40; the bulls will be running stocks towards the highs again.

The table is set. The bears are in control for the weeks nd months ahead unless the bulls can reverse the NYA 40-week negative cross.

Keystone's most important cyclical market signal is the SPX 12-month MA cross. The SPX 12-month MA is at 2807. The S&P 500 dropped to 2822 this month and was down to 2835 on Friday. The SPX sits at 2847 only 40 points above the 2807 Armageddon bull-bear line in the sand. If the SPX loses the 12-month MA at 2807, it is over for the stock market. If the NYA remains in the cyclical bear below the 40-week, but the SPX 2807 support holds, the bulls will likely recover and take a run at moving the NYA back above the 40, or at least performing a back kiss. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.