The dollar/yen pair is in a long-term (multi-year) sideways symmetrical triangle that just broke down. The yen rallies on safe-haven buying by international traders. As the yen strengthens against the dollar, the dollar/yen currency pair number moves lower; the US dollar weakens against the yen. USDJPY moves higher if the dollar strengthens against the yen; the yen weakens against the dollar.
The currencies are getting bounced around on the trade talk rhetoric. As US stocks collapsed on Friday, traders seek the perceived safety of Treasuries and the yen.
In a hasty tweet on Friday, President Trump 'hereby ordered' American companies to move their companies out of China. Most folks roll their eyes at the president's ongoing antics. The comment tanked the US dollar that already had a downward bias from Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The markets are jumping to and fro as the powerful people play their crony games.
Usually, for the sideways triangles, a fake-out move will occur about one-half to two-thirds of the way through the triangle, but that did not occur for the USDJPY. It is a clean triangle hitting the rails and continuing on the path towards the apex, until the failure.
The vertical side of the triangle runs from 98 to 126 so that is 28 points. The breakdown from 107-ish then targets 79 (107-28) for the future. No one is likely ready for that. The world will be a lot crazier then. Typically, a back kiss will occur so price will have a chance to either return inside the safety of the triangle, or, flat out collapse to 102 support then through 100 to 95-98. Keystone is not playing in the currencies nowadays. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 8/25/19 at 6:46 PM EST: S&P futures begin trading Sunday evening on the US East Coast time and tank -40 points. The USDJPY currency pair drops to 104.65 testing critical support from April 2018 at 104.56 and the flash crash low from 1/3/19 at 104.87 when global markets were falling apart. Remember, the Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC and other central bankers stepped in to save the day on and after 1/3/19 since they saw the writing on the wall (markets were about to crash). That Keynesian spending activity bought markets 8 months but the rabbit hole beckons once again. If the 104.50-104.70 level is lost, 102 may happen in a flash. Dollar/yen now trading at 104.75. Traders seek the yen as a perceived safe haven. The yen is at the strongest level of the year; ditto kiwi (New Zealand dollar).
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/26/19, at 7:39 AM EST: The dollar/yen pair moves to 104.47 overnight and is now printing at 105.90. The yen weakens against the dollar sending the currency pair higher. President Trump says China called and wants to restart trade talks although Chinese state media does not know what the president is talking about. S&P futures stage a huge +75 move off the lows overnight now +14.
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