Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant flips negative yesterday at SPX 2879. The model is riding a roller coaster this week with an unprecedented triple-whipsaw that has never occurred in the over one-decade operation of the quant. The price action is historic. Bears will be rewarded with  more stock market carnage if the SPX loses 2806. Bulls will stop the market mayhem if they move the NYA above 12538. More information is at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Note from 4 AM EST: S&P futures are up over +20. Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.57%, 5-year 1.50%, 10-year 1.59%, 30-year 2.01%. The 2-10 spread is 1.5 bips. The 2-10 spread inverted yesterday by a couple basis points for the first time since 2007 which is a harbinger of recession ahead. This concern, along with the US-China trade war, sends stocks south.

Note from 6:09 AM EST: The Chinese communists say they will retaliate against President Trump's tariffs harpooning the futures. S&P -5. Dow -68. Nasdaq -39. Russell flat. VIX 23.14. Gold 1521. Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.53%, 5-year 1.46%, 10-year 1.55%, 30-year 1.98%. The 2-10 spread is 1 bips. The 30 falls below 2%. The 2-5 spread is inverted by 7 bips.

Note Added 6:51 AM: S&P -16. Dow -178. Nasdaq -80. Russell -7. VIX 23.76. The Chinese are spewing more negative rhetoric concerning trade negotiations.

Note Added 7:14 AM EST: S&P -3. Dow -36. Nasdaq -30. Russell flat. VIX 22.78. Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.51%, 5-year 1.44%, 10-year 1.53%, 30-year 1.97%. The 2-10 spread is 1.8 bips. Yields keep slip-slidin' away as Paul Simon will sing.

Note Added 7:30 AM EST: The tape is going bonkers. There must be favorable news out there since futures bounce again. Perhaps the insider traders are told ahead of time that the Retail Sales data will be fine. This is the way the crony capitalism system works; there's always something shifty occurring under the surface that makes the rich richer. S&P futures are up +12 and bouncing back and forth to +24. Dow +109 also bouncing all over the place like a ping-pong ball. Nasdaq +26. Russell +8. VIX 22.96. Both futures and the VIX are higher so one of them is wrong.

Note Added 8:51 AM EST: Retail Sales blow past the estimates. Of course they do. The cronies dance with glee making millions without breaking a sweat. Filthy crooks. S&P +16. VIX 21.79. Volatility slips negative on the session so at this juncture, the bulls are correct. Folks are so enthusiastically happy about the beat in Retail Sales that they do not notice the 9K increase in Jobless Claims this week; 9,000 pink slips. Industrial Production is weak.