Tuesday, November 29, 2016

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Sideways Channels; Inverted H&S

Oil is a major focus with the OPEC meeting on tap tomorrow. Iran says it will not agree to a production cut or freeze. Russia says they will not attend the meeting. Prices sink lower WTIC is down -3.9% to 45.27 as this is typed losing that 20-week MA at 46.13. Price may want to back kiss this level.

The big test is the 50-week MA support at 42.75 since it held two times over the last few months. A failure would send oil strongly lower quickly to 40. The green lines show the falling wedge, possie d and oversold conditions Keystone highlighted early in the year and voila, the bottom occurs and oil bounces moving higher. The two-leg bull pattern takes price up to the summer highs.

Price stumbles sideways through the blue channels specifically 40-50. Obviously, bulls win big above 50 and 52 while bears win big below 40 and 38. The red lines show a negative divergence spankdown for October but the indicators now stumble sideways unwilling to predict a path ahead. The ADX is way down at 11 so there is no strong trend in the market which encourages more sideways behavior ahead. The last strong trend was lower during  late 2014 and early 2015.

The inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern is in play shown with the grey bars. The head is 30 and neckline at 50 so the upside target is 70 if the neckline is taken out to the upside which is the 200-week MA resistance. The chart hints at a lot of sideways action ahead. The moving averages are lining out sideways representing and encouraging sideways behavior.

Today is OPEC eve so there is no reason to play oil, it is more like gambling than trading. Keystone has no positions in oil currently. Bulls win above 46.13 and bears win below 42.75. Price is at 45.25. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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