Sunday, November 6, 2016

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Downward-Sloping Channel; Lower Band Violation; Oversold; Price is Testing 200 MA; FBI Exonerates Clinton; US Futures Soar Higher

There is a lot going in the spaghetti chart above. The red lines show the downward-sloping channel in play with price at the bottom rails for a test. This is also a test of the important 200-day MA at 2083. Price will bounce or die from here tomorrow morning. Price is violating the lower standard deviation band (yellow) for the last four days so a move back to the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA, at 2130, and falling, is on the table going forward.

Keystone's major market signal, the 12-month MA, is at 2080. This is the cliff for the stock market. All hope for bulls is lost if 2080 fails; there will be carnage. If bulls remain above the 2080-2083 gauntlet, stocks should stage a relief rally higher. Fear and panic is rampant as shown by the elevated VIX and CPC and CPCE put/call ratios which is a favorable set up for a short term pop in stocks.

One hour ago, the FBI says the new Clinton emails have been reviewed and the decision from July holds. The fix is in. The FBI, DOJ, Whitehouse and Clinton political machine likely act in collusion telling everyone there is nothing to see here. The FBI announced the news about reopening the Clitnon email investigation on 10/28/16, Friday, and muzzled all news about Wikileaks (which hurts Clinton) until a couple days ago. The FBI are very smart spies. Since the FBI exonerates Clinton this afternoon, S&P futures will probably launch higher.

The blue circles show gaps of interest and the blue lines are interesting support levels. The green lines show positive divergence that wants to create a bounce in price now. The stochastics are oversold and want a bounce. The RSI and MACD line are weak and bleak and want to see a lower low in price after a bounce occurs in this daily time frame.

The 2100 level is an upside target and with the middle band dropping fast to meet the 150-day MA, the 2122-ish level is another upside target. Speaking of the 150-day MA, watch it closely since if the 150 slopes sideways and rolls over to the downside this is a cyclical bear market signal. Bulls need to push the 150-day MA higher to keep the prospects for more stock market upside on the table.

The expectation is for a bounce in price. The Tuesday election is a wild card. S&P futures will open shortly and the first read on the FBI decision will become apparent. The Mexican peso pair is at 18.7174 well below last week's 19.0-19.5 area. The stronger peso at 18.7 hints that Clinton is favored in the presidential race after the FBI announcement. This hints that the US futures will likely be joyous. Wall Street prefers Clinton as the next POTUS since they already have paid her off from when she was paid lucrative fees to appear at token luncheons. The 2080-2083 level is for all the marbles; bounce or die. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:05 PM EST Sunday Evening (11:05 PM London; 12:05 AM Monday morning Frankfurt and Paris; 8:05 AM Tokyo; 10:05 AM Sydney): Jumpin' Jahosophat! S&P futures launch like a rocket. The FBI has dubbed HIllary Clinton the next likely president. The peso strengthens to 18.7 and the S&P futures catapult 28 points higher. Dow futures 225 points higher. Nasdaq futures 67 points higher. The Russell 2000 small cap index futures are up 20 points. The fix is in. If the SPX bounces, say, 25 handles tomorrow morning, that would be 2110 for the cash index. The 2110 is that thin blue line. That may be a first stop, then price may play through 2110-2122 for a few days. The election remains a wild card anything can happen. For now, the expectation is for a Clinton victory. News always overrides the charts but the news is quickly built into the price action on the charts.

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