Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Keystone’s Election Day Skinny; Tallying the Clinton and Trump Factors; Donald Trump Wins the Presdiential Election

Election Day is here. America rejoices not because they prefer one candidate or the other but instead because the long campaign nightmare is over. Rejoice! Americans cheer an end to the insults, lewd videos, negative television commercials and hollow promises that will never come to fruition. The winner likely faces a sick economy and troubled markets ahead.

The polls give Clinton a two to four percentage-point lead over Trump in the popular vote. The popular vote, however, does not elect the president. The United States is a representative republican and the states select the president through the electoral college system. 270 electoral college votes are required to win and Clinton has been projected a winner of 270-plus votes for the last three months albeit fading into today. The bookies are predicting a Clinton win with odds at 4 to 1 or 5 to 1.

Some analysts, typically Trump proponents, tout the Brexit vote surprise and how the polls may be all wrong and Trump may be victorious. The polls and bookies did get it wrong for Brexit but that was a very close vote. What analysts fail to mention is that politician Jo Cox was assassinated a few days before the Brexit referendum and she wanted to stay in the European Union (anti-Brexit). The bookies and pollsters likely assigned a sympathy vote due to Cox’s death and that is where they got it wrong. Brit’s were committed to their vote and the death of pretty Jo Cox, who left a couple daughters behind, did not sway voters to stay in the EU. The Brexit vote won.

Back to the US race, Keystone lists the pros and cons for each candidate. Perhaps that will paint a picture of which candidate has the upper hand. Polling results will be reported for the first time in many years during the day. Typically, news sources wait for polls to close before reporting results but votecastr.us will keep a running tally today.

Democrat Hillary Clinton’s Advantages;
First woman president.
Electoral college map.
Clinton has more campaign money than Trump.
Clinton has a better ground game to get out the vote.
President Obama, Michelle Obama and Vice President Biden stump for Clinton.
More democrats vote than republicans.
City folks favor Clinton and they outnumber rural folks.
More women than men vote; women elect the POTUS.
Women typically do not like a bombastic, insulting male personality.
Women do not like men that are unable to apologize.
Women do not like to be called fat pigs and other hurtful derogatory names.
Blacks favor Clinton by 98 to 2 margin.
Hispanics favor Clinton by 70 to 30 margin.
More old than young vote and they do not want trouble with social security.
Voters under 30 favor Clinton.
College graduates prefer Clinton over Trump.
College campuses tout liberalism which increases democratic votes.
Increased migration into the United States increases democratic votes.
Clinton edged out Trump in the three debates; Trump appeared unprepared.
80% of the media in the US (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, NPR, PBS, Bloomberg, New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Huffington Post, Facebook, Alphabet (Google), Twitter) provides news with a democratic slant.
Never Trumper’s will never vote for Trump no matter what.
Trump unable to stay on message (until the last few days).
Trump plays to the base rather than trying to expand his appeal.
More dead people vote for democrats rather than republicans.
Prior Bush presidents and former candidate Romney not voting for Trump.
A terrorist attack did not occur which would have helped Trump.
Clinton has a floor of 44% in polls while Trump has a 44% ceiling in polls.
Typical busy family has no time to understand Clinton scandal news.
Weather is calm and rain-free in most locations today favoring democrats.
Clinton’s television ads and number of ads are superior to Trump’s.
More celebrities tout Clinton since Hollywood and the arts lean democratic.
More political surrogates tout Clinton since the majority of media leans liberal.
40% of the country has voted early which may be a slight advantage to Clinton.
Economy is generally perceived as doing well.
Big money backers include Warren Buffett, George Soros, Silicon Valley, General Electric, etc...
Celebrities and entertainers back Clinton including Bruce Springsteen, Jennifer Lopez, Jay Z, Beyonce, Katy Perry and Bill Maher.
The demopublican and republocrat establishment power brokers favor Clinton (arms dealers, banks, unions, etc…).
Republican Donald Trump’s Advantages;
Rust belt loyalty. Rural voters favor Trump.
He is an outsider which appeals to the large population left behind the last few years.
Viewed as strong leader.
Increasing gap between rich and poor (widest in 50 years).
Non-college voters.
Independents and white men favor Trump.
Trump leads and should win Ohio; in all recent POTUS elections the winner wins Ohio.
Large crowds at rallies (however, probably one-half are simply there for the spectacle).
20% of the media in the US (Fox News, Drudge Report, Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Glenn Beck, American Spectator, National Review, WSJ) provides news with a republican slant.
Clinton email, Clinton Foundation and other scandals.
Wikileaks exposes Clinton's nefarious behavior.
Growing Populism movement around the world.
Benghazi 9-11 terrorism under Clinton watch and cover-up.
Folks concerned about immigration.
Spotty anecdotal evidence suggests more Trump yard signs in many locations.
Right track/wrong track important poll question; 70% of people say wrong track favoring Trump.
Big money backers include Koch Brothers, Sheldon Adelson, Roger Ailes, etc...
Some analysts say a few million Trump supporters are not counted in the polls (the so-called 'silent Trump supporters').

Looking at it subjectively, there are 37 advantages for Clinton and 19 advantages for Trump and the clock has run out. Nonetheless, the orange-headed bombastic bloviating carnival barker may pull out the unexpected win against the scandal-ridden liar in the pantsuit. Judging from the above list, Clinton should have it in the bag and has already measured the Oval Office for a new rug and drapes.

Over one-half of the country will dislike the winner which creates a tough governing environment. The US Senate race is key since if Clinton wins and the Senate turns democratic her power and control will increase. The US Congress is made up of the House (governors) and the Senate (senators). There are 100 senators two for each of the 50 states. There are 435 representatives in the House assigned according to the population distribution in the US. Republicans control both houses currently. The GOP (Grand Old Party; republicans) hold the Senate majority currently with 54 seats. The democrats need to win five seats in the Senate to flip control of that body in their favor and aid Clinton’s policies going forward (if she wins).

The stock market is favorable to a Clinton win since she is already in the back pocket of the investment banks, however, if the Senate turns democratic that may prove problematic for stocks. The stock market likes gridlock in Washington, DC, since politicians tend to screw up whatever they touch and gridlock prevents them from doing something stupid. A Clinton presidency with the House and Senate remaining republican is what Wall Street prefers.

One thing no one talks about is the third party candidates and the country may be surprised that libertarian Johnson and green party Stein may take far more votes than predicted. In a few hours, the long over-one-year-drama will finally end. Sing praise! Halleluiah! Halleluiah! However, does America now move from the frying pan into the fire?

Note Added on Wednesday, 11/9/16: It has been a crazy night. Trump surprised the consensus and takes the victory. Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States. S&P futures had fallen more than -110 points but the SPX opens flat this morning. Trump wins despite having far less advantages as listed above. He accelerated in key areas to squeeze out the win. Clinton actually wins the popular vote. The rust belt and rural community loyalty to Trump was highly underestimated. There is a rural-urban divide in the United States. The silent Trump supporters were a major force that few saw coming. White men and white women voted for Trump. Parents likely voted for Trump because Clinton is not a good role model when teaching the children to not lie, cheat or steal. One-third of Latino men voted for Trump (they want jobs). The right track/wrong track poll proves why this question is always important and typically correct. The Populism movement grows around the world. Americans wanted a change and are sick of the elite class running the show screwing the middle class and poor. Common Americans grab pitchforks and torches and are ready to do battle with the privileged elite ruling class.

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