Tuesday, November 22, 2016

UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Yield at Six Year Highs; Upward-Sloping Channel

Fed Funds futures predict a 100% chance for a rate hike on 12/14/16 so the short end yields creep higher. The 2-year yield is at 1.08% matching highs from late 2015 and yields going back to early 2010. Yields continue moving steadily higher for five years through the upward-sloping channel. Traders are convinced that Trump's policies will will bring inflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on Friday, 11/25/16, at 7:49 AM EST:  The 2-year yield is up to 1.15%. The blue line is a resistance area at 1.11% to 1.21% so yield is playing in this sandbox right now. The thin line resistance line matching levels from 2009 is at 1.34% to 1.44%. Thus, the bond bears (expecting lower note and bond prices, higher yields and inflation) need to punch up through 1.22% and yield will seek the 1.34%-1.44% target. Treasury bulls, that expect higher note and bond prices, lower yields and disinflation and deflation to continue, need to hold the line at 1.21% which will place a near-term ceiling in the bond rout. Global bonds are at record 'oversold' levels (lower prices higher yields) so a rest and reversal of the move is likely in the near-term.

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