Tuesday, January 24, 2012

SPX 30-Minute Chart H&S

Let's take a look at one of Keystone's fave charts to monitor, the SPX 30-minute with 8 and 34 MA's. Each candle represents 30 minutes of trading time. Remember the blue sideways channel we were watching a few days ago, then price broke up thru the top rail at 1297-ish? Price moved up into the red rising wedge which necessitated a slight pull back. The opening print yesterday, the early action in the day, provided the price high and the teal lines show that the high came with negative divergence across all indicators, so a spank down was needed, and it occurred in quick order as markets sold off yesterday.

Price floated back up in the afternoon to now form a right shoulder of an H&S pattern. The head at 1321 and neckline at 1310 targets 1299. If the highs are used instead, let's call the head 1323, and with neckline at 1310 is a 13 difference so the target would be 1297. Both target levels are shown by the purple lines and ample horizontal price support exists in this zone, forming a confluence, and creating a featherbed for price to fall on and receive support.

The 8 and 34 MA cross is very important to guide daily trading towards the bull side, or the bear side, depending on whether or not the 8 MA is above, or below, the 34 MA, respectively. Note the 8 MA almost stabbed down thru the 34 MA but was stick-saved by the late day market buoyancy. Interestingly, the pink box from a week ago may serve as a fractal moving forward. Note how the 8 MA was repelled back then, only to ultimately move down thru the 34 MA as a result of the strong price collapse; perhaps a repeat fractal in the current pink box?

The ADX motored along above 30 indicating that the upward trend was strong but the ADX has petered out down to 16 now indicating that the strong upward trend no longer exists. Projection is sideways to sideways down price action with a target of 1296-1300 to satisfy the H&S targets and test horizontal support. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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