Keystone's Midday Market Action 1/17/12

The bulls are running out of the gate.  The NYA 40-week MA is 7688 and the NYA blew up thru this level now printing 7711.  This is a huge win for bulls, since if the NYA remains above 7688 today, another of Keystone's secular signals will now favor the bulls. CRB remains under 310, however, so the bulls do not have as much strength as would appear.

The NYAD printed over +2000 today so this verifies the uber bullish sentiment, but also leaves the door open for some bear give back later today or tomorrow. Oddly, the TRIN is printing 1.12, and only dropped lower in the first couple minutes, staying above 1.00 ever since.  A TRIN above 1.00 actually favors sellers, but the markets are up. NYA is now printing 7696, only 8 measley points above the 40-week MA.  Market bulls will lose strength if the NYA drops further.

Note Added 1/17/12 at 10:27 AM:  NYA now testing the 40-week MA at 7688-7690, will the bulls win or the bears? TRIN is 1.07. Nasdaq continues to lead the SPX on the upside so this helps the bulls maintain market buoyancy. Home builders are hit today including LEN, RYL, PHM and KBH. Keystone posted the SRS (inverse ETF for real estate) chart a few posts ago which are worth studying. A positive divergence bounce should occur for SRS, this weakness in builders may serve as a catalyst, for now SRS is at the lows not yet feeling the love. NYA moves back up over 7700 so the market bulls won the test. Note that the 200-day MA for NYA is 7733. The high thus far today is 7723. Watch to see if the 200-day MA serves as a resistance ceiling for NYA, or not.

Note Added 1/17/12 at 11:37 AM:  NYA successfully tested the 40-week MA at 7688-7690 at 10:50 AM and the bulls bounced it higher. TRIN is now slipping under 1.0 over the last few minutes. With the bullish move today, the TRIN should be far lower at 0.8-ish. The Nasdaq leadership over the SPX continues to provide the bullish buoyancy. VIX, volatility, is flat as a pancake, not favoring bulls or bears.

Note Added 1/17/12 at 2:46 PM:  NYA fails the 40-week MA at 7688 at 2:35 PM. This places a thumb in the bulls' eye. The Nasdaq continues to lead the SPX to the upside so this continues to create market buoyancy.  See if the NYA stays under 7688, if so, the market bears will continue to weaken the markets into the close. Volatilty, VIX, resolved its flat behavior now up almost 4% which favors the bears. TRIN is 1.36 which firmly favors bears and selling, thus, with the markets green all day, remains a mystery.