Keystone's Midday Market Action 1/13/12

The Friday the 13th goblins are hard at work today.  The SPX came down to fail the 1286 level, that opened up the path to test 1281, which failed.  The bulls bounced the markets a few minutes later as more details on France's impending downgrade was released.  Losing the SPX 12-month MA level at 1280.11 is serious business. This secular fight for market control has been ongoing the last several days.  Above the 12-month MA and the secular bulls win, below and the secular bears win.

Thus, for the SPX, keep watching the 12-month MA as well as the LOD thus far at 1277.58. Markets were pulled back from serious failure a short time ago and the 1277.58 number reflects that line in the sand for the remainder of today. The retail sector, RTH, was printing an 112 handle this morning. The Nasdaq is down -0.91% today while the S&P is down -0.93%. This promotes sideways movement for the indexes. The bears need the Nasdaq to lead lower and bulls need for it to lead higher.

TRIN is 1.68 which represents steady eddy selling, nothing out of hand, simply a strong steady selling vibe in place today. NYAD printed a low of -1800 today so nothing out of hand to the downside here either. Steady-eddy selling favors addditonal bearishness in the markets. Focus on the SPX 12-month MA today, now at 1280.58. This level is where market intensity and negativity will accelerate again. If it fails, watch the LOD at 1277.58, which will further acceleate the broad market selling.

Note Added 1/13/12 at 12:20 PM: SPX came back up to test the 1286 level where the inital market failure occurred today.  The bulls tried to push the SPX back up and over 1286, but failed.  Over the last few minutes, the SPX now stumbles lower. The Nasdaq, however, is now even less enthusiastic for the downside than before, as compared to the SPX. Thus, the bears do not have juice since the Nasdaq is not leading down.  Things should heat up again this afternoon, watch 1280.58 (12-month MA) and 1277.58.

Note Added 1/13/12 at 2:51 PM: SPX came back up to test the 1286 level again, and at 2:36 PM received a spank down. The bulls do not have the strength to get back above 1286 and the bears do not have the strength to move under 1281. The S&P downgrade announcements, to occur at anytime, may provide a catalyst for price to choose a direction, above 1286, or below 1281.

Note Added 1/13/12 at 3:04 PM: SPX is back up to test the 1286 level once again.  Will it pop up and thru?  The S&P downgrade announcements are imminent.  The tension mounts. SPX just popped above 1287.