Copper is at a critical juncture right now, just like semiconductors, at the top trend line of the sideways triangle, thus, push up thru, or collapse. The indicators are flat with the stochastics and money flow negatively diverged since price just made a matching high compared to three weeks ago. The chart hints at a sideways to sideways lower bias but if price jumps above the trend line at 46.60, the bulls can write the story differently. With the stronger dollar the last two days on the FOMC Minutes news, copper, commodities, gold and silver are getting whacked today so the move today will likely be lower.
JJC 45.40 is a key level identified by Keystone's algorithm. The broad indexes will weaken if JJC loses 45.40. If JJC stays above the market bulls will remain happy with the markets. The 20-week MA is under the 50-week MA which is bearish. The 200-week MA is sloping higher which is bullish. Note how price and all the moving averages are squeezing in for a decision one way or the other. Bulls win above 46.60 and bears win below 44.00. But if the 45.40 fails, it is full steam ahead for bears and price will drop to test the 44.00.
Copper will signal the direction of the markets moving forward. The vertical side of the triangle is 12 handles so the move out of the triangle will be intense, 58.60 target (46.60+12) for the upside breakout and happy bulls, or, 32 target (44-12) for the downside collapse and happy bears. Watch JJC continuously moving forward.
Semi's and copper are two key leading indicators for markets. Simply watch the blue trend lines to identify if the market bulls, or bears are winning moving forward and pay close attention to 45.40 since it will directly impact the broad market direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 1/4/13 at 10:08 AM: The dollar has pulled back down off the highs this morning so copper is well up off its earlier lows. Copper is trading negative but JJC is holding at 46.58, on top of the upper trend line as described above. The bulls can announce that they own the markets if JJC moves higher. Bears must push JJC lower immediately. The drama continues.
Note Added 1/5/13 at 6:32 AM: JJC held up fine yesterday as copper price dropped. JJC closed at 46.69 sitting on top of that upper rail of the triangle. On Monday, 1/7/13, copper, and JJC, must make a decision. Sometimes China news will hit overnight Sunday night so China may very well control the outcome on Monday morning.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.