Wednesday, August 21, 2013

SPX Daily Chart Fibonacci Retracements

It is interesting to look back at the standard deviation bands (pink boundaries and brown circles) that squeezed out a downside move, to everyone's surprise, in the bear's favor. Price has printed three days under the lower band which begs for a recovery in price which occurs yesterday. Usually when the bottom band is violated, price needs to move back to the middle band at a minimum. The middle band is also the 20-day MA at 1685 which is also a very strong S/R level. There is a gap left behind at 1680-1685 as well.

Price fell through the 38% Fib at 1658 but has not yet touched the 1642 50% Fib. Yesterday price kept back testing the 1658-1659 level and could not move above. This is also the important 50-day MA at 1658.  Price has closed two days under the 50-day and the back test of the 50 yesterday resulted in price collapse into the closing bell, which is a bearish indication. The RSI never reached ovesold levels as yet. In addition, the RSI over the last two months is lower but look at how price remains far higher at 1652 compared to the 1580-ish low in June. This behavior should act as a weight on price pulling it lower. The MACD line and money flow are weak and bleak wanting to see lower prices after any bounce would occur. S&P futures point to a -5 point open about 3 hours away. The SPX is now about 60 handles off the 1710 top. A relief rally is anticipated but lower prices are projected for the days and weeks ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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