The tight standard deviation bands on the SPX daily chart remain in play on the verge of creating a huge move one way or the other. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Watch XLF 20.12 and SOX 473.15. Both are bullish creating market lift. The market bears got nothing unless they push XLF and/or SOX lower. Keybot the Quant is bullish but a whipsaw would occur today if semi's or financials turn bearish, and, the SPX drops under 1683. If the SPX stays above 1683 today, the bulls will cruise. The bulls need to touch the 1697 handle and the 1699-1700 resistance test will occur quickly with price moving up through on its way to 1707 and 1710.
M earnings miss so that should hurt retail (RTH and XRT). Global bellwether DE beat on earnings so that is a feather in the bull's cap and reinforces the up move in commodities lately. CSCO earnings are after the bell and will greatly affect the tech sector, semi's (SOX) and the Nasdaq for tomorrow. CEO Chambers always provides excellent commentary and insight into economic conditions so perhaps that will be on tap this afternoon. Fed's Bullard takes the microphone at 3:15 PM to pump the markets higher. Bullard used to be a hawk, then he turned into a dove a year or two ago professing the greatness of QE. Maybe he wanted the Fed head job but since Summers looks like a shoe-in instead of 'Mr.' Yellen, as the president says, Bullard may see it is not his time and perhaps he returns to his hawk roots? What a shame it is that market direction is dictated by the Fed, BOJ and central banker actions. Watch XLF 20.12, SOX 473.15 and SPX 1697 to determine market direction.
Note Added 9:38 AM: SOX failure at the get-go. Watch SOX 473.07 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Equities will sell off and remain weak if SOX stays under 473.07. SOX is now at 472.98 with the bulls trying to recover.
Note Added 10:07 AM: SOX is 472.19 hanging tough for bears under the 473.07 danger line. SPX 1691.66. Volatility is up. TRIN is 0.74, very bullish, printing at the lows thus far today, so the bulls hold an ace card up their sleeve they can play at anytime, perhaps in concert with the typical morning Fed pump at 10-11 AM.
Note Added 11:21 AM: TRIN 0.63 so the bulls hold a trump card that can be played. SOX is 472.78 moving up to test the 473.07 line in the sand.
Note Added 11:34 AM: SOX 473.10; see if the bulls can keep it above 473.07, if so, equities will float upwards from here.
Note Added 11:50 AM: SOX 474.12 so the bulls will set their sights on SPX 1697 now.
my ideas for today are at ''TNX Weekly and Daily Chart Negative Divergence Inverted H&S '' article
ReplyDeleteGS guy
OPEX week and bullish new moon on Aug 20!
ReplyDeleteAs GS said yesterday, I guess the bears are really stupid! :)
V.
V, it's a bullish 'full' moon on 8/20.
Delete:) sorry , my bad! :D!
Deleteso it's english, it's called bullish "full" moon, not bullish new moon! :)
I'm sorry, I feel shame! :)
I'll go back to school and learn some more English! :)
Thanks KS!
V
On Other Market Signals page it shows the data from the last couple years for both new and full moons, markets typically weak thru new moon which was 8/6 and this was the case, and typically bullish thru full moon which is on Tuesday 8/20.
DeleteSOX fails the 473.07 bull-bear line in the sand so the bears are in good shape as long as semi's remain under 473.07. SOX LOD 471.00, see if a 470 handle prints, or not.
ReplyDeleteKS, the utes have spent most of August falling and are way down from their level of 15 weeks ago. Are they telling us something, and when might Keybot stand and take notice (if he or she is capable of standing)?
ReplyDeleteA comment on utilities was added in the previous post from yesterday, towards the bottom.
DeleteUTIL is in no mans land between the 520+ the bulls need to turn utilities into a weekly uptrend again, while the bears need the 50-week MA at 483 to fail to usher in strong selling. UTIL is only 10 points from failure. UTIL 483 represents a trap-door for equities. If it fails in the days ahead, the SPX would drop from 20 to 50 handles within minutes or a couple hours after UTIL would lose its 50-week MA, it it loses it.
Same ol' dumb funny shorting retailers ! :)
ReplyDeleteYou'll be surprised by Bullard's speech all those shorting now after a weak PPI today and after the CPI tomorrow!
Short with all your money! I'll take it from you! :)
All of them!!! :D!
GS guy
Yep, flatness continues. If SPX loses 1683 today, however, that would change the game and bears would be driving the bus again. Without 1683 though, another flat day likely. A weak SOX will prevent markets from moving higher. Bulls need to touch the 1697 handle and the 1700+ prints will occur quickly.
DeleteHi ks, is yen a factor too? I see that unless usdjpy breaks down below 98, bears seem weak..
DeleteYep, that seems to work each day, a weaker yen when the BOJ is printing means higher dollar/yen = higher Nikkei = higher stock market, while a stronger yen means lower dollar/yen = lower Nikkei = lower stock market. Dollar/yen is 98.10 off the 98.26 number this morning so this equates to slight market weakness.
DeleteWith all due respect, the retail spiel is getting old.
ReplyDeleteMost of the retailers $ has left the market especially in regards to shorts where retailers tend to play a small role.
Let me introduce to you
The act you've known for all these years
Rise in August crash in October BAND........
Scotty....More Power
ok, I see a lot of shorters now.
ReplyDeletemaybe I'll play with them for a little bit, to cool them down.
they're quite cheeky!
GS guy
GS guy, I don't know where you see a lot of shorters.
ReplyDeleteNYSE margin debt at record highs, along with retail fund inflows, higher than 2000 and 2007. Look at P/C ratio as mentioned by Keystone. They are as low as at May high before the sell off. And Vix very low shows extreme lack of fear.
a lot as number of positions, not volumes.
DeleteI'll play a little bit with them, can I? :)?
If I close only 2-3 % of my shorts, they will reach levels over 1700 in minutes - not too great and rosy for them. :)
For the moment I want to see if they are civilized persons and cover this choppin' shorting nonsense or if I have to get to tougher means of action.
GS guy
So, You're not civil with me although I'm civil with you?
DeleteOk, expect the unexpected!
GS guy
Why do you say I am not civil with you? Did you confuse me with someone else? I've only posted twice to you. The other time was a question about which broker you would recommend.
DeleteNo Alex :)),
DeleteNo problem with you or anyone else here!!!
Only talking euphemistically with the market!
With those tiny little retailers that don't understand to close the shorts and I have to make maneuvers.
No problem with you! :)
GS guy
Gs guy, so is spx in major 4 already? When can we expect the significant correction to occur in ur opinion?
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p61316958859&a=312297654&listNum=4
ReplyDeletenever over till its over... lol
another HS on the wilshire index
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WLSH&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=5&id=p63298488020&a=277504577&listNum=1
First chart shows importance of 1672-1674.
Deletethis seems more like a fight over support at 1691 (the 14ema) and resistance at 1693 (60 min 130ma)
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=19&id=p03307206658&a=303885030
the 14ema on the daily is almost a straight line...the bb's on the daily are still tightening
thank you scott
ReplyDeleteGS guy, I am a little concerned by KS earlier comment that the SPX could drop by 20-50 handles within minutes! As part of our preparation for major 4, would you consider at the most expedient time, in perhaps giving a low risk entry that could be placed in the market, when the SPX is trading in the 1700 range! I am mindful that a sell signal could also be triggered in other time zones! I anticipate the unexpected i.e. an announcement made when markets are closed! I realize my comments are pure conjecture, but it is a matter of preparing for any eventuality. I am sure with your proprietry analysis and indicators, we as retail traders shall not be caught wrong footed!
ReplyDeleteAnon, that situation with a large drop in SPX is only if the UTIL 50-week MA would fail at 483-ish. UTIL remains somewhat comfortably above for now but keep watching. Think of the UTIL 50-week MA as a trap-door, so markets remain in half-decent shape above the trap-door but if the door opens, markets will not be the same and selling off signficantly. UTIL is 493 so no worries for now.
DeleteFrom here it can maximum fall to 1670's (but it won't, I'll take care of that) , but not lower.
DeleteIf you check the MACD daily cycle you will understand. It's slowly rolling to the upside now.
Target for loading shorts: 1720-1735.
Not here.
Those one who short here are some crazy retailers. They will lose all money!
GS guy
6th hindenburg omen in 8 days! It keeps getting more bizar by the day. Never seen in history this cluster.
ReplyDeleteThe big banks are attracting bears to take their money in this very thin volum market!
DeleteAll those HO signals in OPEX week?
Ring a bell ?!?!?!?!
They know how to make those signals, don't you understand !!!!!!!!!!!!???
GS guy
If so, why hasn't it happend before on this scale?
DeleteMaybe because participation is very low?
DeleteJust my opinion...
Check it out here!
The worst bear attack ever...like the one happened today! :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTMwrAefIVQ&feature=player_embedded
V.
SPX only dumps 20-50 handles in hours if UTIL 483 fails. There will be signals leading up to it, it wont just happen. If UTIL falls 10-12 points, you'll see SPX decline immediately. That is why he calls it a trap door. The leakage begins immediately at UTIL 483 failure.
ReplyDeleteFeS2
GS guy & KS. With grateful thanks for your comments.
ReplyDeleteSOX is 474.54 so the bulls recover. Now the bulls will try to push the SPX to touch the 1697 handle, if so, the 1700+ numbers will occur quickly. Bears need to push SOX back under 473.07. CSCO earnings are key today.
ReplyDeleteYeah,
DeleteThanks to you KS I have some inspiration what buttons have to be pushed!
;)
GS guy
the consolidation and volume patterns of the last few days is bullish imho just as it was in feb, march and april...virtually the same scenario AND we have various money flow and Volume Osc info showing strength to the end of the month
ReplyDeletebullish to what level/levels?
DeleteThank you,
V.
IF, an important if, we break above 1710 and confirm the resumption of the uptrend than the fib relationships suggest 1770ish
Deletethat is a real BEAR target if it occurs and would usher in a big decline at that point
transports need to start rallying soon if its gonna happen
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYT&p=D&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p80552547391&a=275768592
Scott,
DeleteAll BB's are offering maximum 1730-1735 now!
1770 ?
V.
I use fib relationships but here is a waver (Sid) who has a max on his alternate count of right in that area - I think looking at his chart he is using fibs with his wave counts as well
Deletehttp://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/SPX-240m-8-6-132.png
even if those who are salivating for the 4 down are right, after that is a guaranteed 10% rally before the impending doom.
Deletethere are so many assumptions flying around about the nature of the road map that it is better to either simply trade longer terms swing systems like the simple one I showed yesterday or deal with the market daily and ACCEPT what it gives you, not what you want it to give you.
I dont think there are any bears out there.. the indices are barely down 0.3 to 0.5%.... this is hardly a selloff? Stuck in a range
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p95703282800&a=305384923
ReplyDeletenot gonna get a nasty decline as long as there is buying pressure...
from Bullard's speech :
ReplyDeleteFed must maintain credibility on inflation goal of 2%.
there is 'a lot of risk going forward' in regards to higher inflation.
inflation has not materialized so far.
...if you were curious what that man said....
GS guy
more Bullard:
Deletedoes not see 'much evidence' of sequester impacts.
too big to fail remains 'a gigantic problem.'
GS guy
easy comments, not hawkish.
DeleteGS guy
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-no-sign-yet-inflation-picking-up-2013-08-14?link=MW_home_latest_news
DeleteV.
well with the dow leading to the downside things could flip here
ReplyDeletethis is also a concern
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=1&id=p73505010792&a=308716150&listNum=4
I timed so much wrong this week. my aug17 170 and 171calls got crushed this morning and don't look like they are going to recover in time. so much for 1710-1720 by Friday.the few puts I have are looking better, but only keeping up with the time decay, for now... im so bad at this game.
ReplyDeleteI lost 50% of my money in this week's SPY 171 calls. I hope it will go up from now to till friday. otherwise this will be my last put buying.
Delete-- P
Me too Shawn! I sold my short yesterday at a loss.
ReplyDeleteThat is why we need the experienced traders to post exact levels and percentages here. Thank you KS, GS and Scott today, for giving us your specific numbers to help us out. It appears all three of you are all in agreement that the market is going to go higher before it then goes lower. Around 1700-1735 then down. Thanks again all. Rich
My opinion is that we should follow the full moon period - 16-20 August.
DeleteThursday and Friday (15-16 aug) are vital for higher prices.
Don't fall in love with a certain price level - just my opinion!
And GS guy called for higher prices IF 1700.62 is taken to the upside and held as support. IF!
V.
''I sold my short yesterday at a loss.''
DeleteWhy at a loss?
The market didn't gave any sign of breaking the range ...why selling at a loss?
Never sell at a loss!
V.
V, I sold my short when Keybot flipped to long side, GS re the stupid short retailers, and Scott also bullish.
Deletemy opinion is that as long as we stay in this trading range all here should stay calm in cash!
Deletethat's my opinion!
until a trend is developped nobody should enter any trade!
V.
Learn to trade what the market gives you real time OR
ReplyDeleteuse a very simple swing trade system like this -
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p01291557760&a=305045282&listNum=4
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2000-07-01&en=%28today%29&id=p90912194543&a=197977218&listNum=12
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24315457782&a=312413445
Using these three charts you could have made VERY informed decisions as to whether the trend was up and if you should stay with it.
trading NOW at this late stage is DANGEROUS so if you havent been in the trend you should likely GET OUT and stay out until you can identify your actual abilities...
I dont know IF the market is going higher - I know potentials
there is no one sentence answer to how or when to make money or to keep from losing it
unless you have a daily approach just identify the beginning of a trend and the end of a trend - dont short or use options and dont overstay you welcom in a trade.
simplify or dont trade -
Scott, Thanks for the input. Lots to learn. Trying to become medium term buyer/seller. In process of adopting a strategy to trade S&P ups and downs. Do want to keep it simple! If only it was!
Deletewhy lose your hair - just trade the trend using no more that a handful of charts and then use some longer term charts to identify the cyclical bull and bears.
Deleteif you had done that since 09 you would have MADE A TON OF MONEY! and you would have been able to sleep -
trading the ups and downs is almost always a losing game but trading intermediate trends getting in a little late and getting out early will bank you profits.
hell if you dont want to trade the trends just trade Keybot but if you do follow EVERY signal without discretion or you will step on your you know what
DeleteScott, So with regard to the three charts you posted above, what are you specificly looking for on that third chart?
DeleteKS,
ReplyDeleteAre you still constructive on WLT?
TW
Scott u rock. I use Renko and Breadth as well.
ReplyDeleteI would not touch this market now. CSCO will be interesting.
Anyone in the networking &/or semi biz knows that things are worse now than in 2008.
Fed...yep. Chambers talk up B2B then to the moon, if not you will be saying hello to number 4, nember4, number4
Billy Shears, For the sake of the worldwide audience participating in this forum, clarify what you are trying to convey to Scott, so we at least have an inkling of your coded language!
DeleteI think I know their names ...they are posters from Daneric's blog.
Deletethat explains their behaviour.
GS,
ReplyDeleteCan I get a position disclosure?
FeS2
still chopping.
ReplyDeletefor retailers not used with day trading I suggest (like V said) to exit in cash until a trend is developed.
if you have both shorts and longs first exit the position that's break-even or positive (probably shorts).
There will be at least one more swing to the highs of the trading range - at that point exit longs and stay in cash if you can't handle day trading.
wait for a signal to enter in a intermediate trend like Scott said. Now it's still chopping.
if 1683 breaks we will see 1670. but fear that level ( 1670) if it's reached until Friday! It will create a mega-jump to the upside of full % in only one day or until Monday!
disclosure: 14% shorts, 30 % longs, 56% cash
GS guy
I think I know what those big money guys are up to.
DeleteThey would love to drop the market into OPEX (with so much funds long) but there are too much retailers short. And more and more people started to talk about tapering and a possible correction.
So, there's a possibility during the next days or during the start of next week, to ramp the market to get all traders totally complacent and after that dump it so fast that nobody can identify an entry point to short.
So, for now, they are chopping up and down taking everybody's stops.
One person here asked me were we are according to EW.
We are almost at the end of minor 'b' of Int'A' of major 4.
After a minor 'a' from 1709 delivered in 5 impulsive waves (1709 - 1684), the market developed a flat sideways 'b' with one more internal ramp in the cards (or at least one more ramp) and after that we will see a 'c' minor wave of Int 'A' at 1657-1670 (in that area).
After that we will see a Int. B (minors a-b-c) and a Int.C (1-2-3-4-5 down impulsive waves).
This count is wrong if we see levels above 1700.62
If we see levels above 1700.62 and/or 1709 I have a very bad news for you all : there might be no Major 4 for now.
All we have seen from 1560 might be only minor 1 of int v, this rubbish sideways a minor 2 of int v and next might be minor 3 of intv, minor 4 and minor 5 (under this count Scott is right with his 1770's target).
This bullish count is invalidated below 1676 due to the flat-sideways form of potential minor 2 of int v until now.
Seeing levels above 1709 reversed after that really would mess my counts. Under all aspects.
ok, have a great day,
GS guy
so, more simply put:
Deleteit's not that head and shoulders that bugs me - that's simple as technical configuration.
It's that Inverted H&S that might create problems to the downside or some other weird technical structure.
GS guy
I am not a EW guy, but what I am seeing is that things could be changing.. We are probably seeing slow unloadings (slow grind down to the 1500s or below) by the smart money instead of big movements when everyone expect either new highs or crashes. This will frustrate both who wants to buy the dips and those that want to short at higher prices.
ReplyDeleteeverybody! short now!
ReplyDeleteeliminate that inverted head and shoulders!
bears are ruling!
for ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm 100% short now and I will triple my money in days!
DeleteSHORT NOW!
DeleteFED WILL BE DEFEATED!
My plan will finally come true!
DeleteI'm 300% short with the money received from the bank! I received a loan and guarantee it with my house!
I will triple my money in days!
Go short now!
If I were you I would think twice about that!
DeleteV.